Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-09
$72.21-1.08%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Increase EPS to at least $9.08 in 2026: Q2 FY26 EPS 1.23 vs target 9.08.
Assured Guaranty grows earnings per share to $10.26 by 2025, up 49%. Revenue guidance targets $1.1 billion for 2026. Dividends per share rose to $0.38 in 2026-Q1, showing steady payout growth. The company trades cheap with a PE of 10 versus peers at 15.34.
Revenue could shrink more than expected, as analysts forecast -13% growth. Profit margins may compress, hurting EPS gains. Dividend growth could stall if earnings weaken.
The price is about 18% below our fair value near $102. Analysts expect revenue to decline about 13%, while we see potential for earnings and dividend growth.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.38 in 2026-Q1
Breaks if: EPS falls below $9.08 in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.1 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
AGO represents a stable investment with a focus on increasing earnings per share and maintaining dividend growth. The current thesis state shows mixed results, with some priorities on track while others are only partially progressing.
The market seems to price in a low level of fragility due to weak execution quality, suggesting that expectations are somewhat justified. AGO is viewed as cheap compared to its peers, indicating that the market may not fully reflect its potential.
Management is focused on increasing earnings and achieving revenue guidance, but recent financial performance has been neutral with a decline in net income per share. There is a moderate risk of missing future earnings expectations, especially after a recent earnings miss.
The future performance of AGO hinges on guidance updates from management and the performance of sector bellwethers like FNF, FAF, and ACT. Positive momentum in the Financials sector could support AGO, while negative trends from these peers could impact its trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings report showed a significant miss. The company reported Q2 EPS of $1.23, below the $1.66 consensus. This miss raises concerns about future performance. The overall market also showed signs of weakness recently.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Target total revenues of approximately $1.1 billion for fiscal year 2026 through growth in premiums and investment income.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $261 million in 2026-Q1 and $195 million in 2026-Q2, totaling $456 million for half year 2026 against a full year guidance of $1.1 billion. The trajectory shows partial progress toward the annual revenue target.
“Total revenues reported were $195 million for second quarter 2026.”
“Total revenues reported were $261 million for first quarter 2026.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, AGO's performance will depend on management's execution and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.