Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$69.46-1.21%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	208.28M
EPS	—	1.717
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	883.65M
EPS	—	6.931
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	843.63M
EPS	—	6.843

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend per share growth to at least $0.38 in 2026-Q1	Dividends per share rose to $0.38 in 2026-Q1, showing steady payout growth.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.38 in 2026-Q1	Dividend per share: $0.38 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.38 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 20260.38 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9b28f36b-537d-4c2c-90f6-ed3f36ed9de5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.34 in 2025-Q2 and 2025-Q3 to $0.38 in 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2, showing consistent dividend growth and delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase EPS to at least $9.08 in 2026	A primary condition in Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=9.08 USD per share.	Broken	EPS falls below $9.08 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.88 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9.08 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.88 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9b28f36b-537d-4c2c-90f6-ed3f36ed9de5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue of at least $1.1 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1100 million USD.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.1 billion in FY26	Revenue: $195M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1100 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026195,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9b28f36b-537d-4c2c-90f6-ed3f36ed9de5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $261 million in 2026-Q1 and $195 million in 2026-Q2, totaling $456 million for half year 2026 against a full year guidance of $1.1 billion. The trajectory shows partial progress toward the annual revenue target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	2
2026-06-01	2	1
2026-07-01	2	1
2026-08-01	2	1
2026-09-01	3	1
2026-10-01	3	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Roth CapitalSep 25 · prior May 8

$80.00 → $85.00+6.3%

$0$46.75$93.50

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend per share growth to at least $0.38 in 2026-Q1Dividend per share: $0.38 per share
Increase EPS to at least $9.08 in 2026Published status: Broken
Achieve revenue of at least $1.1 billion in 2026Revenue: $195M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Assured Guaranty Ltd. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AGO is a financial company with a value-oriented thesis, but its earnings quality is fragile rather than steadily compounding. The thesis is in a watch state, with recent signals mildly favorable but performance still below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Assured Guaranty Ltd.

The valuation evidence describes AGO as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative. Pricing fragility is assessed as low and the current setup as justified, so the evidence does not point to a deeply discounted outlook that assumes a broader breakdown.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results may remain uneven: adjusted operating income and per-share earnings fell from Q1 to Q2, and the latest reported quarter was an earnings miss. Revenue reached $456 million in the first half against $1.1 billion of 2026 guidance, while dividend growth remains on track; the evidence gives only medium confidence in the overall picture.

What Assured Guaranty Ltd. hinges on

The next guidance update matters because a cut could reinforce weaker estimates; rate cuts from the current 3.88% are also identified as a sector headwind. Over the multi-year view, stronger earnings and revenue execution would support the thesis, while continued weakness would keep earnings quality fragile; results and guidance from FNF, FAF, and ACT offer sector signals.