Reading AFCG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AFCG free→Reading AFCG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AFCG free→NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 59% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.33. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.33 AFCG trades at 3× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $8.19 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 59% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -32%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.77x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.20 (+15.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$193.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$651.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,682.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well the company is doing. It will show its financial health and how it operates.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows a profit. It may also show better results than expected.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows a loss. It may also show worse results than expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AFCG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Asset Management & Custody Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AFCG Advanced Flower Capital Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
BLK BlackRock | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BX Blackstone Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BNY BNY Mellon | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | full | low |
BK BNY Mellon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
AFC expects to complete the conversion in the first quarter of 2026 following satisfaction of customary conditions and applicable regulatory requirements.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. AFC has not provided specific financial metrics related to the conversion completion. The statement indicates a regulatory focus, but financial impact remains unquantified. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“AFC expects to complete the conversion in the first quarter of 2026 following satisfaction of customary conditions.”
AFC has consistently paid dividends, with recent payments of $0.05 per share in 2026-Q1.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividend per share was $0.05 in 2026-Q1, down from $0.15 in previous quarters. The company is maintaining dividend payments, but the amount has decreased, indicating limited progress in sustaining higher payouts.
AFC entered into multiple credit agreements to manage capital allocation effectively.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. AFC entered into an unsecured revolving credit agreement in 2026-Q1 and amended a loan agreement in 2025-Q4. These actions indicate a focus on managing capital allocation, but financial outcomes from these agreements are not detailed, showing limited progress.
“AFC entered into an unsecured revolving credit agreement with TCGSL LLC.”
Why it matters: A drop below 15% would signal a slowdown in the sector's growth phase. This could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Amendment to Loan and Security Agreement On March 27, 2026, Advanced Flower Capital Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”), entered into Amendment Number Eight to the Loan and Security Agreement (the “Eighth Amendment”), dated as of April 29, 2022 (as amended, supplemented or otherwise modified from time to time, including by the Eighth Amendment), by and among the Company, as borrower, the lenders party thereto and the lead arranger, bookrunne…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of Registrant The information provided in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 4, 2026, Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial and operational results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. On March 4, 2026, the Company furnished a copy of an earnings presentation intended to be used by representatives of the Company announcing its financial and operational results for the fourth…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On January 27, 2026, Advanced Flower Capital Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”), entered into an unsecured revolving credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with TCGSL LLC, acting as agent and lender (in such capacity, the “Lender”). TCGSL LLC is indirectly wholly-owned by Leonard M. Tannenbaum, Chairman of the Company’s Board of Directors, and certain members of his immediate family and certain trusts for their benefit, and an affiliate…
“Dividend per share was $0.05.”
“Dividend per share was $0.15.”
“Dividend per share was $0.15.”
“Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Amendment to Loan and Security Agreement.”