Reading ADUS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADUS free→Reading ADUS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADUS free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while management's recent track record has been steady. Compared with sector peers, ADUS trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $94.83. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $95 ADUS trades at 15× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $135 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $92–$139. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 30% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.45x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.69 → $1.69 (+0.1% / 30d). 4 raised, 6 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$126.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$253.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,791.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Personal care is a major revenue driver. Growth here signals strong demand and effective operations.
Confirms:Q2 organic revenue growth in personal care exceeds 6.5% year over year.
Disproves:Organic revenue growth in personal care falls below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ADUS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, Addus HomeCare Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing, among other matters, the Company’s results of operations for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$92.00 – $139.00 (median $112.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-15
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ADUS Addus HomeCare Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CVS CVS Health | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CI Cigna | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
DGX Quest Diagnostics | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LH Labcorp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to grow through strategic acquisitions, particularly in new markets like Indiana.
Focus on improving operating income by enhancing operational efficiency.
Broaden the range of services offered in home healthcare to enhance patient care.
Focus on strategic acquisitions to drive revenue growth and expand market presence.
Why it matters: Stable hiring is crucial for maintaining service quality and meeting demand. Changes could impact growth.
Confirms one read:Hiring trends are steady or getting better. This helps with service delivery.
Confirms the other:Hiring trends are getting worse. This causes problems with service delivery.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports acquisitions and operational investments. Weak cash flow could limit growth plans.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations exceeds $52.4 million in Q2.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations falls below $45 million in Q2.
Why it matters: This acquisition is key for Addus to expand its market reach in Indiana. Success here could boost revenue and operational scale.
Confirms:The company will close its Indiana operations as planned. This will help grow revenue.
Disproves:The company may face delays in closing the acquisition. This will limit market growth.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 23, 2026, Addus HomeCare Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing, among other matters, the Company’s results of operations for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Press Release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated herein by reference.