Addus HomeCare Corp. (ADUS)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$121.81-0.70%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Addus HomeCare Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.51 → 7.54 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	393.77M
EPS	—	1.896
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.52B
EPS	—	7.047
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.61B
EPS	—	7.541

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve operating income by enhancing efficiency	Profit rises with better efficiency, shown by $34.1M operating income in Q1.	Intact	Operating income falls below $30M next year	Operating income: $38.942M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $34M operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202638,942,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a203b76d-d843-4aed-a8e4-f5db346a3344. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $43.9M in 2025-Q2 to $49.2M in 2026-Q2 (+11.9%), and operating income increased from $32.9M to $38.9M over the same period. Management's emphasis on cost management and efficiency aligns with improving profitability, indicating delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Grow revenue through acquisitions and market expansion	Addus grows sales about 7.7% yearly through acquisitions.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year	Revenue growth: 8.01% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20268.005311 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a203b76d-d843-4aed-a8e4-f5db346a3344. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company achieved a 23.2% revenue increase from $1.15B in 2024 to $1.42B in 2025, driven by acquisitions including the recent $280M acquisition of AccentCare's personal care division. Management consistently emphasizes acquisitions to expand market density and geographic reach, and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain valuation discount to peers	A supporting condition in Addus HomeCare Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE below peer median ~30.	Intact	PE rises above peer median without profit growth	P/E (TTM): 18.71x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 202618.7112 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: ADUS:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.54

$7.48 → $7.54 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.61B

$1.59B → $1.61B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.48	$1,591,470,252	8 / 10
2026-07-25	$7.48	$1,590,434,160	14 / 13
2026-07-26	$7.48	$1,590,434,160	14 / 13
2026-07-27	$7.48	$1,590,434,160	14 / 13
2026-07-28	$7.48	$1,590,434,160	14 / 13
2026-07-29	$7.48	$1,590,434,160	14 / 13
2026-07-30	$7.48	$1,590,434,160	14 / 13
2026-07-31	$7.48	$1,590,434,160	14 / 13
2026-08-01	$7.48	$1,590,434,160	14 / 13
2026-08-02	$7.48	$1,590,434,160	14 / 13
2026-08-03	$7.48	$1,590,434,160	14 / 13
2026-08-04	$7.48	$1,590,434,160	14 / 13
2026-08-05	$7.50	$1,589,812,570	14 / 13
2026-08-06	$7.50	$1,589,812,570	14 / 13
2026-08-07	$7.52	$1,597,370,490	14 / 13
2026-08-08	$7.50	$1,598,266,830	14 / 13
2026-08-09	$7.50	$1,598,266,830	14 / 13
2026-08-10	$7.50	$1,598,266,830	14 / 13
2026-08-11	$7.52	$1,599,031,904	8 / 10
2026-08-12	$7.52	$1,599,031,904	8 / 10
2026-08-13	$7.52	$1,599,016,520	14 / 13
2026-08-14	$7.52	$1,599,031,904	8 / 10
2026-08-15	$7.52	$1,599,031,904	8 / 10
2026-08-16	$7.52	$1,599,031,904	8 / 10
2026-08-17	$7.52	$1,599,031,904	8 / 10
2026-08-18	$7.52	$1,599,031,904	8 / 10
2026-08-19	$7.52	$1,599,031,904	8 / 10
2026-08-20	$7.52	$1,599,016,519	8 / 10
2026-08-21	$7.52	$1,599,016,519	8 / 10
2026-08-22	$7.52	$1,599,016,519	8 / 10
2026-08-23	$7.52	$1,599,016,519	8 / 10
2026-08-24	$7.52	$1,599,016,519	8 / 10
2026-08-25	$7.52	$1,599,016,519	8 / 10
2026-08-26	$7.52	$1,599,016,519	8 / 10
2026-08-27	$7.52	$1,599,016,519	8 / 10
2026-08-28	$7.52	$1,599,016,519	8 / 10
2026-08-29	$7.52	$1,599,016,519	9 / 10
2026-08-30	$7.52	$1,599,016,519	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$7.52	$1,599,016,519	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$7.52	$1,599,016,519	9 / 10
2026-09-02	$7.52	$1,598,988,442	9 / 10
2026-09-03	$7.52	$1,598,988,442	9 / 10
2026-09-04	$7.52	$1,598,988,442	9 / 10
2026-09-05	$7.52	$1,598,988,442	9 / 10
2026-09-06	$7.52	$1,598,988,442	9 / 10
2026-09-07	$7.52	$1,598,988,442	9 / 10
2026-09-08	$7.52	$1,598,988,442	9 / 10
2026-09-09	$7.52	$1,598,988,442	9 / 10
2026-09-10	$7.52	$1,598,988,442	9 / 10
2026-09-11	$7.52	$1,598,988,442	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$7.52	$1,598,988,442	9 / 10
2026-09-13	$7.52	$1,598,988,442	9 / 10
2026-09-14	$7.52	$1,598,988,442	9 / 10
2026-09-15	$7.52	$1,598,988,442	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$7.51	$1,597,840,873	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$7.51	$1,597,840,873	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$7.51	$1,597,840,873	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$7.51	$1,597,840,873	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$7.51	$1,597,840,873	9 / 10
2026-09-21	$7.51	$1,597,840,873	9 / 10
2026-09-22	$7.51	$1,597,840,873	9 / 10
2026-09-23	$7.51	$1,597,840,873	9 / 10
2026-09-24	$7.51	$1,597,840,873	9 / 10
2026-09-25	$7.51	$1,597,840,873	9 / 10
2026-09-26	$7.51	$1,597,840,873	9 / 10
2026-09-27	$7.51	$1,597,840,873	9 / 10
2026-09-28	$7.51	$1,597,840,873	9 / 10
2026-09-29	$7.51	$1,597,853,181	9 / 10
2026-09-30	$7.51	$1,597,853,181	9 / 10
2026-10-01	$7.51	$1,597,853,181	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$7.51	$1,597,853,181	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$7.51	$1,597,853,181	9 / 10
2026-10-04	$7.51	$1,597,853,181	9 / 10
2026-10-05	$7.51	$1,597,853,181	9 / 10
2026-10-06	$7.51	$1,597,853,181	9 / 10
2026-10-07	$7.54	$1,614,560,950	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$7.54	$1,614,560,950	9 / 10
2026-10-09	$7.54	$1,614,560,950	9 / 10
2026-10-10	$7.54	$1,614,560,950	9 / 10
2026-10-11	$7.54	$1,614,560,950	9 / 10
2026-10-12	$7.54	$1,614,560,950	9 / 9
2026-10-13	$7.54	$1,614,560,950	8 / 9
2026-10-14	$7.54	$1,614,560,950	8 / 9
2026-10-15	$7.54	$1,614,560,950	8 / 9
2026-10-16	$7.54	$1,614,560,950	8 / 9
2026-10-17	$7.54	$1,614,560,950	8 / 9
2026-10-18	$7.54	$1,614,560,950	8 / 9
2026-10-19	$7.54	$1,614,560,950	8 / 9
2026-10-20	$7.54	$1,614,560,950	8 / 9
2026-10-21	$7.54	$1,614,560,950	8 / 9
2026-10-22	$7.54	$1,614,560,950	8 / 9
2026-10-23	$7.54	$1,614,560,950	8 / 9
2026-10-24	$7.54	$1,614,560,950	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	1	1
2026-06-01	12	1	1
2026-07-01	12	1	1
2026-08-01	12	1	1
2026-09-01	12	2	1
2026-10-01	11	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesSep 28 · prior Sep 14

$125.00 → $137.00+9.6%

$0$75.35$150.70

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve operating income by enhancing efficiencyOperating income: $38.942M
Grow revenue through acquisitions and market expansionRevenue growth: 8.01%
Maintain valuation discount to peersP/E (TTM): 18.71x

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Addus HomeCare Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ADUS is a healthcare growth business combining acquisitions with organic expansion, meaning growth within its existing operations. Its long-term thesis is intact: recent financial performance remains strong, earnings quality is robust, and management is stable, though a CEO transition adds some uncertainty.

What's priced into Addus HomeCare Corp.

The evidence describes ADUS as cheap versus peers, while its priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of the model; the valuation picture is therefore not an unqualified bargain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: second-quarter revenue rose 8.0% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA, a measure of operating earnings, rose 11.9%. Organic growth and rate increases are on track, while efficiency is supporting operating income; acquisitions are expanding reach, but their contribution is mixed. Near-term risk is moderate, with guidance, a weaker jobs trend, and a history of a deep miss worth watching.

What Addus HomeCare Corp. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining organic growth and cost discipline while integrating acquisitions. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would challenge the near-term setup, while continued earnings strength among healthcare peers would support the sector backdrop.