Reading AAMI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AAMI free→Reading AAMI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AAMI free→NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 45% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If AAMI cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $82.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $81 AAMI trades at 21× p/e — 1.4× the 15× p/e peer median, and above its own 13× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $56 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $60–$80. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 44% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.02x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.98 → $1.00 (+1.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 0.6% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$165.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$338.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,820.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Acadian keeps growing and making money. This is important for investor feelings.
Confirms one read:Q2 2026 net inflows exceed $20 billion, indicating strong client demand.
Confirms the other:Q2 2026 net inflows are below $10 billion. This suggests demand is weakening.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Strong returns suggest positive valuation outlook.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, on June 11, 2026, the Company held the Annual Meeting. As of April 20, 2026, the record date for the Annual Meeting, the Company had 35,628,988 shares of common stock issued and outstanding and entitled to vote at the Annual Meeting. Of these shares, 32,712,971 were present or represented by proxy at the Annual Meeting. A quorum was present for the transaction of business at the Annual Meeting. At the Annual Meeting, the Company’s stockholders considered an…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$60.00 – $80.00 (median $60.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Asset Management & Custody Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AAMI Acadian Asset Management Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BLK BlackRock | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BX Blackstone Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BNY BNY Mellon | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | low |
BK BNY Mellon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through enhanced management fees and strategic initiatives.
Aim to enhance net income through strategic growth and operational efficiency.
Focus on improving operating income through cost management and revenue growth.
Why it matters: Crossing this threshold would reflect strong growth and client confidence in Acadian's strategies.
Confirms:A press release confirming AUM has surpassed $220 billion.
Disproves:AUM is below $210 billion. This shows growth is slowing.
Why it matters: The ENI operating margin is an important measure of profit. Changes could show shifts in costs or revenue.
Confirms one read:ENI operating margin goes above 40% in Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:ENI operating margin drops below 35% in Q2 2026.
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such information shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as may be expressly set forth in a specific filing. Exhibit No. Description 99.1 First quarter 2026 earnings presentation of Acadian Asset Management Inc. 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) SIGNATURE Pursuant t…
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such information shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as may be expressly set forth in a specific filing. Exhibit No. Description 99.1 Fourth quarter 2025 earnings presentation of Acadian Asset Management Inc. 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) SIGNATURE Pursuant…