Reading ZUMZ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ZUMZ free→Reading ZUMZ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ZUMZ free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair), and the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.36. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $18 ZUMZ trades at 22× p/e — 1.4× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $19 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 5% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.66x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.09 → $-0.11 (-214.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$167.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$422.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,321.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can affect consumer spending. This impacts Zumiez's sales.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ZUMZ yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 4, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the information contained in this report and the Press Release shall not be deemed "Filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be de…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ZUMZ Zumiez, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | fair | elevated |
TJX TJX Companies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROST Ross Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GAP Gap Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has provided revenue guidance for upcoming quarters.
Management has provided EPS guidance for upcoming quarters.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact consumer spending outlook. This affects Zumiez's revenue.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase more than 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: EPS guidance can indicate profit potential. Changes can affect investor views.
Confirms:Management raises EPS guidance for the next quarter.
Disproves:Management lowers EPS guidance or keeps it unchanged.
Why it matters: Management wants to grow revenue. Any update can show how well they will do.
Confirms:Management raises revenue growth guidance above what it is now.
Disproves:Management lowers revenue growth guidance or keeps it the same.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 12, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the information contained in this report and the Press Release shall not be deemed "Filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be…
Other Events. On March 11, 2026, Zumiez Inc. approved the repurchase of up to an aggregate of $40 million of its Common Stock (the “Repurchase Program”). The repurchases will be made from time to time on the open market at prevailing market prices. The Repurchase Program is expected to continue through January 29, 2028, unless the time period is extended or shortened by the Board of Directors. The Repurchase Program supersedes the prior authorization approved by the Board of Directors on June…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement Reference is made to a Credit Agreement (the “ Credit Agreement ”) dated as of December 20, 2024, by and among Zumiez Inc. (the “ Registrant ”) together with its subsidiaries Zumiez Europe Holding GmbH (“ ZEH ”) and Blue Tomato GmbH (“ BT ” and together with the Registrant and ZEH, collectively, the “ Borrowers ”) entered into with PNC Bank, National Association (the “ Bank ”) dated as of December 20, 2024. The Credit Agreement provides for a revolvi…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On December 4, 2025, Zumiez Inc. issued a press release (the "Press Release") reporting its financial results for the third quarter ended November 1, 2025, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and the contents of which are incorporated herein by this reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the information contained in this report and the Press Release shall not be deemed "Filed" for purposes of Section 18…