Reading XOM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XOM free→ExxonMobil (XOM)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$141.87+0.67%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that reported profits are not strongly backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 36% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If XOM cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative, as the Street tends to walk down estimates. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Integrated
- Market cap
- $609.35B
- Employees
- 62
- IPO date
- 1972-01-03
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $141.87. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$104.56consensus
Range $95.33 – $118.44
vs price: +36% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$266.41consensus
Range $160.48 – $313.40
vs price: -47% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $142 XOM trades at 23× p/e — 1.4× the 17× p/e peer median, and above its own 15× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $105 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $153–$185. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
23.4x
peer 17.3x · own history 14.7x
Premium
1.4x peer
1.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
36%
our forecast -10%
Our fair value
$104.56
range $95.33 – $117.61
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 36% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
55th pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.89x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
45th pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish18 analysts, 44% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $3.69 → $3.73 (+1.1% / 30d). 4 raised, 3 cut, 18 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.1% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$116.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$268.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,782.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- UpsideHigh confidenceYear+active 4d
Watch for progress on $20B share repurchase plan
Why it matters: Finishing the share buyback plan shows strong use of capital and returns for shareholders.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:ExxonMobil completes at least $15B of the $20B share repurchase by year-end 2026.
Disproves:Repurchase activity falls short, with less than $10B completed by year-end 2026.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1616h agoInvesting.com
Advances: Increase U.S. LNG exports by 5%
LNG deal supports U.S. LNG export growth objective.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 3% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CVX, SHEL, and DEC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting XOM and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If XOM raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-01), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit XOM and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If XOM cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-01), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CVX, SHEL, and DEC start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping XOM and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-011mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-0.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.