ExxonMobil (XOM)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-10-15

$178.98+2.46%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ExxonMobil’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+6.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.79 → 11.47 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Repurchase $20B of shares in 2026	It plans to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2026.	Intact	Repurchases fall significantly below $20 billion in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase U.S. LNG exports by 5% relative to 2025	LNG exports rose 5% in early 2026.	Intact	LNG exports fail to grow by 5% relative to 2025	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Golden Pass LNG Train 1 startup increased U.S. LNG exports by 5% relative to 2025. Management is delivering on this growth milestone with operational progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Grow production through advantaged volumes and project start-ups	A primary condition in ExxonMobil's published investment case. The stated target is Net production at or above 4.6 million barrels per day.	Intact	Production falls below 4.6 million barrels per day	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Upstream production reached record levels with Permian production growing at a planned 9% CAGR through 2030 and Guyana FPSO expansions on schedule. LNG exports increased by 5% in early 2026. Management is delivering growth through advantaged volumes and project start-ups. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain profit margins near recent levels despite cost pressures	Profit margins remain solid despite cost pressures.	Improving	Margins fall below half of recent levels	Net margin: 12.52% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Profit margins do not fall below half of recent levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Aug 3, 202612.519717 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 27860aed-ed6c-4153-aa6b-3b4d2554930b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$11.47

$10.61 → $11.47 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$401.54B

$383.77B → $401.54B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.61	$383,766,720,670	23 / 13
2026-07-25	$10.73	$383,766,720,670	24 / 13
2026-07-26	$10.73	$383,766,720,670	24 / 13
2026-07-27	$10.67	$377,692,719,064	14 / 10
2026-07-28	$10.67	$377,692,719,064	14 / 10
2026-07-29	$10.59	$390,930,474,890	23 / 13
2026-07-30	$10.59	$390,930,474,890	23 / 13
2026-07-31	$10.68	$376,076,582,939	14 / 10
2026-08-01	$10.68	$376,076,582,939	14 / 10
2026-08-02	$10.58	$389,029,167,200	23 / 13
2026-08-03	$10.55	$361,431,866,894	14 / 10
2026-08-04	$10.55	$361,431,866,894	14 / 10
2026-08-05	$10.55	$361,431,866,894	14 / 10
2026-08-06	$10.64	$393,924,940,570	23 / 13
2026-08-08	$10.55	$361,431,866,894	14 / 10
2026-08-09	$10.55	$361,431,866,894	14 / 10
2026-08-10	$10.55	$361,431,866,894	14 / 10
2026-08-12	$10.55	$361,431,866,894	14 / 10
2026-08-13	$10.55	$361,431,866,894	14 / 10
2026-08-14	$10.55	$361,431,866,894	14 / 10
2026-08-15	$10.55	$361,431,866,894	14 / 10
2026-08-16	$10.55	$361,431,866,894	14 / 11
2026-08-17	$10.55	$361,431,866,894	14 / 11
2026-08-18	$10.55	$361,431,866,894	14 / 11
2026-08-19	$10.55	$361,431,866,894	14 / 11
2026-08-20	$10.68	$382,991,280,572	14 / 11
2026-08-21	$10.68	$382,991,280,572	14 / 11
2026-08-22	$10.68	$382,991,280,572	14 / 11
2026-08-23	$10.68	$382,991,280,572	14 / 11
2026-08-24	$10.68	$382,991,280,572	14 / 11
2026-08-25	$10.65	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-08-26	$10.65	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-08-27	$10.65	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-08-28	$10.65	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-08-29	$10.65	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-08-30	$10.65	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-08-31	$10.65	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-01	$10.65	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-02	$10.65	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-03	$10.65	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-04	$10.77	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-05	$10.77	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-06	$10.77	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-07	$10.77	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-08	$10.77	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-09	$10.78	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-10	$10.79	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-11	$10.79	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-12	$10.79	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-13	$10.79	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-14	$10.79	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-15	$10.79	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-16	$10.79	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-17	$10.79	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-18	$10.79	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-19	$10.79	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-20	$10.79	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-21	$10.79	$384,485,751,160	14 / 11
2026-09-22	$10.78	$385,180,398,219	14 / 11
2026-09-23	$10.82	$387,253,408,336	14 / 11
2026-09-24	$10.82	$387,253,408,336	14 / 11
2026-09-25	$10.89	$392,169,714,219	14 / 11
2026-09-26	$11.09	$397,898,157,299	14 / 11
2026-09-27	$11.09	$397,898,157,299	14 / 11
2026-09-28	$11.09	$397,898,157,299	14 / 11
2026-09-29	$11.14	$398,106,569,064	14 / 11
2026-09-30	$11.14	$398,106,569,064	14 / 11
2026-10-01	$11.14	$398,106,569,064	14 / 11
2026-10-02	$11.21	$397,783,326,787	14 / 11
2026-10-03	$11.21	$397,783,333,770	14 / 11
2026-10-04	$11.26	$397,783,333,770	14 / 11
2026-10-05	$11.29	$397,783,333,770	14 / 11
2026-10-06	$11.29	$397,783,333,770	14 / 11
2026-10-07	$11.36	$400,791,569,064	14 / 11
2026-10-08	$11.36	$400,791,569,064	14 / 11
2026-10-09	$11.36	$400,791,569,064	14 / 11
2026-10-10	$11.36	$400,791,569,064	14 / 11
2026-10-11	$11.36	$400,791,569,064	14 / 11
2026-10-12	$11.35	$400,791,569,064	14 / 11
2026-10-13	$11.35	$400,791,569,064	14 / 11
2026-10-14	$11.35	$400,791,569,064	14 / 11
2026-10-15	$11.47	$401,539,836,312	14 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	13	1
2026-06-01	12	13	1
2026-07-01	11	14	1
2026-08-01	10	15	1
2026-09-01	10	15	0
2026-10-01	10	16	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSSep 25 · prior Aug 7

$168.00 → $172.00+2.4%

HSBCSep 25 · prior Aug 3

$158.00 → $90.00-43.0%

$0$94.60$189.20

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Repurchase $20B of shares in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Increase U.S. LNG exports by 5% relative to 2025Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Grow production through advantaged volumes and project start-upsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain profit margins near recent levels despite cost pressuresNet margin: 12.52%

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ExxonMobil outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on cost savings and growth through project start-ups. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has not met industry standards, prompting close monitoring.

What's priced into ExxonMobil

The market appears to have priced in a stretched valuation compared to peers, reflecting a low execution quality and a turbulent sector environment. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that investors are not overly optimistic about immediate performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to remain neutral, with management on track to achieve significant cost savings and production growth. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent earnings misses and a history of underperformance relative to peers.

What ExxonMobil hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including inflation trends, guidance updates from management, and the performance of sector peers like CVX and SHEL. Positive developments in these areas could bolster XOM's position.