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NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$132.06+0.06%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact EOG's performance.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas E&p
- Market cap
- $72.78B
- Employees
- 3,400
- IPO date
- 1994-03-23
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $132.06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$119.91consensus
Range $101.59 – $127.60
vs price: +10% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$159.17consensus
Range $96.02 – $227.55
vs price: -17% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $137 EOG trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $121 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $110–$196. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
12.6x
peer 12.4x · own history 10.9x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
13%
our forecast -2%
Our fair value
$121.08
range $98.90 – $128.13
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 13% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
83rd pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.95x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
49th pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to rise when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +16.5% / 30d, n=22for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $4.27 → $4.97 (+16.5% / 30d). 19 raised, 2 cut, 22 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 42% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.3% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 67% of the last 6 guided quarters · 35.3% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$113.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$292.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,851.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for the completion of the Encino acquisition
Why it matters: Closing the Encino deal will expand EOG's resource base and enhance returns. This could improve investor confidence in EOG's growth strategy.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The deal will close after getting all approvals by the end of 2025.
Disproves:The deal does not close due to regulatory issues or other problems.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EOG yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 3% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like COP, OXY, and FANG keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting EOG and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If EOG raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit EOG and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If EOG cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like COP, OXY, and FANG start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping EOG and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2127d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. As previously reported, EOG’s Board has established a share repurchase authorization that allows for the repurchase by EOG of up to $10 billion of its common stock (Share Repurchase Authorization). For further information regarding the Share Repurchase Authorization, see Part II, Item 2, Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds, in EOG’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026. As of March 31, 2026, (i) EOG had repurchased a…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.