Reading EXE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EXE free→Reading EXE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EXE free→NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If EXE cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $87.90. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $88 EXE trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $92 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $110–$146. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 93%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.82x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
17 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=252).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.17 → $1.15 (-2.1% / 30d). 5 raised, 12 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 1 maintained. 77% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 27.7% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$126.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$316.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,876.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping production guidance shows the company can meet rising demand. It shows strong operations.
Confirms:Q2 production guidance confirms about 7.5 Bcfe/d.
Disproves:Q2 production guidance drops below 7.5 Bcfe/d.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EXE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Accordingly, the information contained in the press release shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$110.00 – $146.00 (median $135.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-05-26
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EXE Expand Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | fair | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Expand Energy aims to reduce its debt by at least $1 billion to prioritize its balance sheet.
Expand Energy plans to invest $2.85 billion to achieve an estimated daily production of approximately 7.5 Bcfe/d.
Expand Energy plans to operate between 11 and 12 rigs in 2026 to support its production goals.
Why it matters: Earnings above this level would show strong operations and cash flow.
Confirms:Q2 earnings reported above $4.81 per share.
Disproves:Q2 earnings reported below $4.81 per share.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing and how the market reacts.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows a big rise in revenue and profit from last year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report reveals a decline in revenue or profit compared to last year.
Why it matters: Reducing debt helps the balance sheet. It also supports future growth and returns for shareholders.
Confirms:Debt reduction reported at or above $1 billion by year-end 2026.
Disproves:Debt will drop below $1 billion by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Running more rigs can boost production. This is key for meeting growth targets.
Confirms:The company reports operating 11 or more rigs by the end of Q3 2026.
Disproves:Rig count remains below 10 by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Investing in production is crucial for future growth. Updates will show commitment.
Confirms:The company will share news about a project or partnership for the $2.85 billion investment.
Disproves:No updates or delays in the planned investment are reported.
Why it matters: News on share buybacks shows good cash flow. It shows a promise to give value back to shareholders.
Confirms:Share repurchases exceed $150 million by the end of Q2 2026.
Disproves:Share repurchases are less than $150 million by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Reducing debt strengthens the balance sheet and supports future investments. It shows financial discipline.
Confirms:Debt reduced by at least $250 million in Q2.
Disproves:Debt reduction fails to meet the $250 million target.
Why it matters: The investment decision on the Delfin SPA could impact future cash flows and market reach.
Confirms one read:Final investment decision on the Delfin SPA is made and announced.
Confirms the other:The investment decision on the Delfin SPA is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: A strong CFO can help with money management and strategy. This could raise shareholder value.
Confirms:Good changes in money strategy or guidance came after the CFO's appointment.
Disproves:There are no clear changes in how money is managed. There are also no ongoing problems with operations.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Expand Energy Corporation (the “Company”) has appointed Marcel Teunissen as the Company’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective as of April 6, 2026. Mr. Teunissen, age 52, most recently served as President, North America for Parkland Corporation. From 2020 to 2024, he served as Chief…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 6, 2026, John D. Gass notified Expand Energy Corporation (the “Company”) that he will not stand for re-election to the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) at its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”) and that he will retire from the Board at the conclusion of the Annual Meeting. Mr. Gass’s decision not to stand…
Accordingly, the information contained in the press release shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 6, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Expand Energy Corporation (“Expand Energy”) appointed Michael Wichterich, Chairman of the Board, as Interim President and Chief Executive Officer, replacing Domenic (Nick) J. Dell’Osso, Jr., effective immediately. In connection with his separation, Mr. Dell’Osso also resigned from the Boa…