Reading AR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting AR and other Energy names. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.02. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 the market pays 16× p/e — above the 12× p/e peer median but in line with its own 15× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $31 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $38–$57. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 10% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.89 → $0.92 (+3.3% / 30d). 8 raised, 6 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 50.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$157.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$424.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,177.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This production level confirms the impact of the HG acquisition on growth.
Confirms:Q2 production averages 4.1 Bcfe/d or higher.
Disproves:Q2 production averages less than 4.1 Bcfe/d.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section, and is not incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$38.00 – $57.00 (median $56.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AR Antero Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Energy names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 45% for the rest of the cohort, n=249).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on boosting revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Improve operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on generating higher cash flow from operational activities.
Why it matters: Cutting debt means the HG acquisition is working well.
Confirms:Net debt reported below $1.5 billion increase from year-end 2025.
Disproves:Net debt reported above $1.5 billion increase from year-end 2025.
Why it matters: Higher price premiums show strong market demand for Antero's products.
Confirms:Ethane price premium is above $2.00 per barrel.
Disproves:Ethane price premium is below $1.00 per barrel.
Why it matters: Lower cash costs help make more money. They also support revenue growth.
Confirms:Cash production expense reported at $2.25 per Mcfe or lower.
Disproves:Cash production expense reported above $2.35 per Mcfe.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 11, 2026, Antero Resources Corporation issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein, announcing its financial and operational results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The information in this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished pursuant to
Regulation FD Disclosure. On February 23, 2026, Antero Resources Corporation (the “Company”) and certain of its wholly-owned subsidiaries completed the previously announced sale of substantially all of their Utica Shale oil and gas assets to an affiliate of Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. and Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (“NOG”) for aggregate cash consideration of $800 million, subject to customary post-closing adjustments, adjustments for the effective date of the transaction and other items,…
(d) Exhibits. Exhibit Number Description 4.1* Credit Agreement, by and among Antero Resources Corporation, as Borrower, the Lenders party thereto and Royal Bank of Canada, as Administrative Agent, dated February 3, 2026. 10.1* Membership Interest Purchase Agreement, by and among HG Energy II LLC, HG Energy II Production Holdings, LLC, HG Energy II Midstream Holdings, LLC, Antero Resources Corporation and Antero Midstream Partners LP, dated as of December 5, 2025 (incorporated by reference to…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement The information contained in