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SM Energy Company (SM)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$28.07-1.39%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting SM and other Energy names. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas E&p
- Market cap
- $6.83B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-07-05
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $28.07. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$35.60consensus
Range $34.89 – $63.26
vs price: -21% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$104.28consensus
Range $77.62 – $132.73
vs price: -73% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $28 SM trades at 5× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $62 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $24–$55. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
5.5x
peer 12.4x · own history 6.2x
Premium
0.4x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
-54%
our forecast 8%
Our fair value
$61.74
range $35.74 – $63.52
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 54% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
31st pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 16.55x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 35% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
98th pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
- the US dollar: This stock tends to rise when the dollar strengthens.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to rise when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +6.6% / 30d, n=14for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.91 → $2.03 (+6.6% / 30d). 5 raised, 4 cut, 14 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.1% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$212.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$523.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,814.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for the completion of the 2026 Senior Notes redemption
Why it matters: Completing the redemption of the 2026 Senior Notes will reduce debt and interest costs.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Redemption of all $819 million of 2026 Senior Notes is completed by June 1, 2026.
Disproves:Redemption is delayed or not completed by the planned date.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SM yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 3% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Downside triggers
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2226d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 21, 2026, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors of SM Energy Company (the “ Company ”) amended and restated the Change of Control Executive Severance Agreement for Elizabeth A. McDonald, the Company's President and Chief Executive Officer, effective as of January 30, 2026 (“ Change of Control Agreement ”). Pursuant to the Chan…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.