SM Energy Company (SM)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$40.11+4.40%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge SM Energy Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+11.1% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.77 → 8.63 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	2.12B
EPS	—	2.206
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.83B
EPS	—	8
Capital expenditure	$2.65B–$2.85B	—
Operating income	About $70M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.83B
EPS	—	8.631

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain capital expenditure within $2.65-$2.85 billion	It maintains capital spending near $2.85 billion.	Intact	capex exceeds $2.85 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. SM Energy consistently reaffirmed full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance of $2.65 to $2.85 billion. The company’s capital spending remains disciplined and stable, matching management’s stated guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve $375 million annualized synergy from Civitas merger	The company targets $375 million in merger synergies.	Intact	synergy actioned falls below $300 million by 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management raised the synergy target to $375 million and reported 95% ($355 million) actioned by 2026-Q2. This shows delivering progress on integration synergies with a clear trajectory toward full realization by year-end 2026. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Full-year 2026 production of 410-430 MBoe/d	SM Energy raised production guidance to 430 MBoe/d for 2026.	Intact	production falls below 410 MBoe/d in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.63

$7.34 → $8.63 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.83B

$7.45B → $7.83B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.34	$7,449,544,270	10 / 11
2026-07-25	$7.22	$7,367,973,722	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$7.34	$7,449,544,270	10 / 11
2026-07-27	$7.34	$7,449,544,270	10 / 11
2026-07-28	$7.34	$7,449,544,270	10 / 11
2026-07-29	$7.34	$7,449,544,270	10 / 11
2026-07-30	$7.22	$7,367,958,131	8 / 8
2026-07-31	$7.21	$7,367,958,131	8 / 8
2026-08-01	$7.21	$7,367,958,131	8 / 8
2026-08-02	$7.34	$7,449,544,270	10 / 11
2026-08-03	$7.34	$7,449,544,270	10 / 11
2026-08-04	$7.21	$7,367,958,131	8 / 8
2026-08-05	$7.34	$7,449,544,270	10 / 11
2026-08-06	$7.21	$7,367,958,131	8 / 8
2026-08-08	$7.15	$7,351,708,131	8 / 8
2026-08-09	$7.15	$7,351,708,131	8 / 8
2026-08-10	$7.34	$7,449,544,270	10 / 11
2026-08-12	$7.15	$7,351,708,131	8 / 8
2026-08-13	$7.40	$7,490,858,280	10 / 11
2026-08-14	$7.15	$7,351,708,131	8 / 8
2026-08-15	$7.15	$7,351,708,131	8 / 8
2026-08-16	$7.15	$7,351,708,131	8 / 8
2026-08-17	$7.15	$7,351,708,131	8 / 8
2026-08-18	$7.15	$7,351,708,131	8 / 8
2026-08-19	$7.15	$7,351,708,131	8 / 8
2026-08-20	$7.36	$7,455,319,538	8 / 8
2026-08-21	$7.37	$7,467,236,205	8 / 8
2026-08-22	$7.37	$7,467,236,205	8 / 8
2026-08-23	$7.30	$7,467,236,205	8 / 8
2026-08-24	$7.30	$7,467,236,205	8 / 8
2026-08-25	$7.30	$7,467,236,205	8 / 8
2026-08-26	$7.32	$7,474,874,621	8 / 8
2026-08-27	$7.32	$7,474,874,621	8 / 8
2026-08-28	$7.32	$7,474,874,621	8 / 8
2026-08-29	$7.32	$7,474,874,621	8 / 8
2026-08-30	$7.32	$7,474,874,621	8 / 8
2026-08-31	$7.32	$7,474,874,621	8 / 8
2026-09-01	$7.32	$7,474,874,621	8 / 8
2026-09-02	$7.32	$7,474,874,621	8 / 8
2026-09-03	$7.32	$7,474,874,621	8 / 8
2026-09-04	$7.32	$7,460,599,650	8 / 8
2026-09-05	$7.32	$7,460,599,650	9 / 8
2026-09-06	$7.32	$7,460,599,650	9 / 9
2026-09-07	$7.32	$7,460,599,650	9 / 9
2026-09-08	$7.32	$7,460,599,650	9 / 9
2026-09-09	$7.32	$7,460,599,650	9 / 9
2026-09-10	$7.32	$7,460,599,650	9 / 9
2026-09-11	$7.32	$7,460,599,650	9 / 9
2026-09-12	$7.44	$7,516,522,727	9 / 9
2026-09-13	$7.44	$7,516,522,727	9 / 9
2026-09-14	$7.44	$7,516,522,727	9 / 8
2026-09-15	$7.59	$7,528,153,497	9 / 8
2026-09-16	$7.65	$7,563,691,958	9 / 8
2026-09-17	$7.65	$7,563,691,958	9 / 8
2026-09-18	$7.65	$7,563,691,958	9 / 8
2026-09-19	$7.65	$7,563,691,958	9 / 8
2026-09-20	$7.65	$7,563,691,958	9 / 8
2026-09-21	$7.65	$7,563,691,958	9 / 8
2026-09-22	$7.71	$7,582,809,189	9 / 8
2026-09-23	$7.71	$7,582,809,189	8 / 8
2026-09-24	$7.77	$7,582,809,189	8 / 8
2026-09-25	$7.77	$7,582,809,189	8 / 7
2026-09-26	$7.77	$7,582,809,189	8 / 7
2026-09-27	$7.77	$7,582,809,189	8 / 7
2026-09-28	$7.77	$7,582,809,189	8 / 7
2026-09-29	$7.77	$7,582,809,189	8 / 7
2026-09-30	$7.77	$7,582,809,189	8 / 7
2026-10-01	$7.77	$7,582,809,189	8 / 7
2026-10-02	$7.77	$7,582,809,189	8 / 7
2026-10-03	$7.77	$7,582,809,189	8 / 7
2026-10-04	$7.85	$7,587,939,797	8 / 7
2026-10-05	$7.85	$7,587,939,797	8 / 7
2026-10-06	$7.85	$7,587,939,797	8 / 7
2026-10-07	$7.85	$7,587,939,797	8 / 7
2026-10-08	$7.92	$7,596,247,489	8 / 7
2026-10-09	$8.04	$7,653,732,266	9 / 9
2026-10-10	$7.99	$7,653,732,266	9 / 9
2026-10-11	$7.99	$7,653,732,266	9 / 9
2026-10-12	$7.99	$7,653,732,266	9 / 9
2026-10-13	$8.01	$7,681,891,642	9 / 9
2026-10-14	$8.04	$7,698,331,642	9 / 9
2026-10-15	$8.10	$7,709,281,285	9 / 9
2026-10-16	$8.26	$7,748,771,620	9 / 7
2026-10-17	$8.26	$7,748,771,620	9 / 7
2026-10-18	$8.26	$7,747,843,049	9 / 9
2026-10-19	$8.26	$7,747,843,049	9 / 9
2026-10-20	$8.36	$7,746,343,049	9 / 9
2026-10-21	$8.52	$7,749,105,120	9 / 9
2026-10-22	$8.55	$7,767,083,906	9 / 9
2026-10-23	$8.55	$7,767,083,906	9 / 9
2026-10-24	$8.63	$7,828,441,049	10 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	7	1
2026-06-01	9	6	0
2026-07-01	10	5	0
2026-08-01	11	5	0
2026-09-01	11	5	1
2026-10-01	11	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 21 · prior Jul 21

$48.00 → $50.00+4.2%

SusquehannaOct 20 · prior May 11

$31.00 → $44.00+41.9%

Deutsche BankOct 20

$48.50New observation · no comparable prior

ScotiabankOct 14

$39.00New observation · no comparable prior

Truist FinancialOct 7 · prior Aug 10

$43.00 → $48.00+11.6%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 7 · prior Jul 7

$37.00 → $39.00+5.4%

$0$27.50$55.00

4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain capital expenditure within $2.65-$2.85 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve $375 million annualized synergy from Civitas mergerDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Full-year 2026 production of 410-430 MBoe/dDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

SM Energy Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SM is an energy producer with a sector tailwind and robust earnings quality, but elevated risk and volatile management make this an execution-sensitive thesis. The thesis is intact, and the recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable.

What's priced into SM Energy Company

The evidence describes SM as cheap versus peers, while the market setup is tagged as justified rather than fragile. The expectations gap is negative, but the evidence does not define its size in plain terms, so it is unclear how much room there is between expectations and results.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent earnings beats and production guidance increases support the operating picture, while recent overall financial performance remains neutral. Management has actioned 95% of the Civitas synergy target and reaffirmed capital spending guidance, though these priorities are rated mixed; erratic earnings surprises and recent peer misses remain risks.

What SM Energy Company hinges on

The multi-year view depends on completing merger integration, realizing the remaining synergies, and sustaining production growth within the stated guidance. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could preserve the sector tailwind; misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.