Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-29
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put TPL beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Free cash flow at least $136.4 million in 2026-Q2: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 21% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 190% growth a year, above the roughly 25% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 40% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskTPL’s case rests on steady financial performance, but cash does not strongly support reported profits. Revenue grew 20% year over year in Q1 FY2026, and Q2 FY2026 earnings beat consensus. TPL trades at 29× P/E versus the 19× peer median. The market is pricing in more growth than our forecast. Fragile earnings quality and a full valuation leave little room for execution weakness. The next-quarter miss probability is 27%. Free cash flow’s 2026-Q2 comparison needs review, so it is not a confirmed breach. Peer multiples imply a price about 184% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the thesis is on watch, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. TPL is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 2 analysts currently covering TPL (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
Continue this research
Compare TPL with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Compare now without an account. Saving and monitoring require an account.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPL Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put TPL next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Improve free cash flow
Q1 results likely improve free cash flow outlook.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Enhance revenue growth
Data center development enhances revenue growth potential.
Advances: Focus on strategic acquisitions
Water thesis supports strategic acquisitions focus.
Advances: Enhance revenue growth
Positive rating on water outlook enhances revenue growth.