NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue reaches at least $236.8 million in 2026-Q2: rev $246.1M vs $236.8M target.
Texas Pacific Land grows revenue about 20% yearly, with $237 million guided for 2026-Q2. Free cash flow is strong, expected at $136 million next quarter and $380 million for 2025 full year. The company is expanding through strategic acquisitions and new water and data center businesses. Profitability is solid with EPS guidance at $2.07 for 2026-Q2.
Revenue growth is uneven, with a recent drop from $203 million to $141 million in late 2025. Profit margins and cash flow could weaken if acquisitions do not deliver. The stock trades at a high PE of 37, above peers, risking multiple contraction if growth slows.
The price is about 33% below our fair value near $616, reflecting cautious optimism. Analysts expect about 20% revenue growth, which aligns with company guidance, but recent estimate revisions are slightly down.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.80 in 2026-Q2
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $120 million in 2026-Q2
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $200 million in 2026-Q2
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable long-term thesis with some fragility. TPL is navigating a moderate risk environment while focusing on expanding its operations in energy and land acquisitions.
The current valuation reflects a high fragility due to expensive pricing and weak execution quality. The market seems to expect a re-rating, with an expectations gap indicating that investors may be overly optimistic about future performance.
Management is making progress on key priorities, such as increasing oil and gas royalty production and expanding land acquisitions. However, recent financial performance has been neutral, and there is a low probability of missing expectations.
The thesis hinges on whether inflation reaccelerates, which could benefit TPL, and the performance of sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY. Additionally, any potential cuts to guidance could negatively impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified at this time.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: No meaningful acquisitions or growth from acquisitions in next 4 quarters
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TPL's performance will depend on external economic factors and management execution. Not investment advice.
