Reading COP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COP free→Reading COP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COP free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Compared with sector peers, COP is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $111.40. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $112 COP trades at 19× p/e — 1.5× the 12× p/e peer median, and above its own 13× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $75 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $127–$183. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 50% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.46x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.66 → $2.87 (+7.7% / 30d). 7 raised, 2 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 28.1% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$139.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$309.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,674.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Not including Qatar in production plans shows how global issues affect output.
Confirms:Q2 production guidance is below 2.185 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Disproves:Q2 production guidance meets or exceeds 2.215 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Syria gas deal enhances growth and production objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, ConocoPhillips issued a press release announcing the company's financial and operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. Additional financial and operating information about the quarter is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$127.00 – $183.00 (median $149.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DVN Devon Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Energy names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 45% for the rest of the cohort, n=249).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ensure production levels meet the guidance range of 2.295 to 2.325 MMBOED for 2026.
Maintain capital expenditures within the guidance range of $12 to $12.5 billion for 2026.
Target underlying production growth of 0 to 2% for 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company continues to perform well after the recent beat.
Confirms:Q2 earnings per share exceed $2.23.
Disproves:Q2 earnings per share fall below $1.78.
Why it matters: Dividends show financial health and commitment to shareholders. Changes can affect how investors feel.
Confirms:Dividend is declared at $0.84 per share for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Dividend is cut or not announced for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The Willow project is important for future production and cash flow.
Confirms:The Willow project is finished earlier than planned.
Disproves:The Willow project has delays that go beyond the expected timeline.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps with spending and returns. These are key goals for management.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations reported above $5 billion in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations is below $4 billion. This shows possible financial trouble.
Why it matters: Changes in capital spending could impact future production and cash flow.
Confirms one read:Capital spending plans are cut to below $12 billion for 2026.
Confirms the other:Capital spending plans are raised to above $12.5 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: The Willow project is crucial for future production. Delays or advancements affect growth outlook.
Confirms one read:Willow project is reported at 50% completion and on track for first oil in early 2029.
Confirms the other:The Willow project will be completed later than planned.
Why it matters: Updates on production guidance will show if the company can meet its growth goals.
Confirms one read:Management raises Q2 production guidance. It is now above current levels.
Confirms the other:Management lowers Q2 production guidance. It is now below current levels.
Why it matters: Production growth from Lower 48 is key to overall performance and cash flow.
Confirms:Production growth from Lower 48 exceeds 2% year over year.
Disproves:Production growth from Lower 48 is flat or negative year over year.
Advances: Maintain production guidance
MoU supports production growth through new exploration.
Threatens: Manage capital expenditures
Sale of assets may hinder production growth.
Advances: Manage capital expenditures
Acquisition supports production growth objectives.
Threatens: Manage capital expenditures
Free cash flow weakness may hinder production growth.
Advances: Manage capital expenditures
Synergy will enhance production growth and cash flow.
Advances: Maintain production guidance
Strong Q3 performance confirms production guidance.
Advances: Maintain production guidance
Q3 growth plans align with production guidance.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, ConocoPhillips issued a press release announcing the company's financial and operating results for both the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. Additional financial and operating information about the quarter and full year is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 6, 2025, ConocoPhillips issued a press release announcing the company's financial and operating results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. Additional financial and operating information about the quarter is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 7, 2025, ConocoPhillips issued a press release announcing the company's financial and operating results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. Additional financial and operating information about the quarter is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d) Election of Directors On July 1, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of ConocoPhillips (the “Company”) voted to increase the size of the Board from 12 members to 13 members and to elect Kathleen (Katie) McGinty to the Board of the Company, to serve until her successor shall have been duly elected and qualified or until her earlier resign…