ConocoPhillips (COP)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-29
$154.03+2.67%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put COP beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Maintain and grow production levels near 2.33 MMBOED: Direct metric needs a verified mapping.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 10% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 37% growth a year, above the roughly 7% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskCOP’s case rests on expanding commercial LNG and maintaining production, with sector trends supportive. Recent performance is steady, though revenue growth figures are unavailable. Q2 FY2026 non-GAAP EPS beat consensus by 9.5%. COP trades at 19× P/E versus a 19× peer median. The market prices more growth than our forecast, leaving expectations full. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 23%. The production pillar needs verified mapping, so its pressure remains unconfirmed. Peer multiples imply a price about 37% below where it trades. The thesis is on watch; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. COP is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 30 analysts currently covering COP (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 11 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for COP in the last 4 months.
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Compare COP with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COP Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put COP next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Advance commercial LNG strategy
New LNG deal supports growth and commercial strategy.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $154.03
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $154.03.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Advance commercial LNG strategy
LNG supply deal supports commercial LNG strategy.
Advances: Manage capital expenditures around $12 billion annually
Sale could optimize capital allocation and focus on core assets.
Advances: Manage capital expenditures around $12 billion annually
Sale improves capital allocation flexibility and supports objectives.
Threatens: Advance commercial LNG strategy
New CFO may shift LNG and Willow project priorities.
Advances: Return 45% of cash from operations to shareholders
Earnings beat supports cash return to shareholders.
Advances: Advance commercial LNG strategy
LNG strategy success could significantly enhance valuation.
Advances: Maintain and grow production levels
Low-cost inventory supports production growth and cash flow.
