ConocoPhillips (COP)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$146.51+3.37%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ConocoPhillips’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+6.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.25 → 9.83 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage capital expenditures around $12 to $12.5 billion annually	Capital spending stays disciplined around $12 billion a year.	Intact	Capital expenditures exceed $12.5 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $3.024B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 12.0 to 12.5 billion USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20263,024,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Capital expenditure guidance has consistently ranged from approximately $12 billion to $12.9 billion annually, with recent guidance at $12 to $12.5 billion for 2026. Management has maintained disciplined capital allocation around this level, delivering on stated targets with limited variation. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Return 45% of cash from operations to shareholders	The company returns 45% of cash from operations to shareholders.	Intact	Return falls below 40% of cash from operations in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management has consistently targeted returning 45% of cash from operations to shareholders, distributing $9.0 billion in 2025, which represents 45% of $19.9 billion CFO. The company is on track to maintain this payout ratio in 2026, demonstrating delivery on this capital allocation commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain and grow production levels near 2.33 MMBOED	ConocoPhillips keeps production near 2.3 million barrels per day.	Under Pressure	Production falls below 2.29 MMBOED in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Total company production increased from 1,917 MBOED in 2024-Q3 to a peak of 2,399 MBOED in 2025-Q3 before moderating to 2,248 MBOED in 2026-Q2. Lower 48 production similarly rose from 1,152 MBOED in 2024 full year to 1,528 MBOED in 2025-Q3, then declined to 1,479 MBOED in 2026-Q2. Despite some declines in 2026, management has consistently emphasized maintaining and growing production, with trajectory showing mixed delivery due to geopolitical and operational factors. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Advance major projects on schedule, e.g. Willow at 50% completion	Key projects like Willow and LNG remain on schedule.	Intact	Willow project progress falls below 40% completion by 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management has consistently reported progress on major projects such as Willow, which reached 50% completion by 2025-Q2, and LNG projects approximately 80% complete and on schedule for startup in 2026. The trajectory shows on-track delivery against project milestones. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.83

$8.97 → $9.83 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$67.22B

$66.65B → $67.22B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.97	$66,651,589,649	19 / 5
2026-07-25	$8.97	$66,651,589,649	19 / 5
2026-07-26	$8.97	$66,651,589,649	19 / 5
2026-07-27	$8.97	$66,651,589,649	19 / 5
2026-07-28	$8.97	$66,651,589,649	19 / 5
2026-07-29	$8.71	$64,910,962,240	11 / 5
2026-07-30	$9.00	$66,651,589,649	19 / 5
2026-07-31	$9.00	$66,651,589,649	19 / 5
2026-08-01	$8.71	$64,910,962,240	11 / 5
2026-08-02	$9.00	$66,651,589,649	19 / 5
2026-08-03	$8.71	$64,910,962,240	11 / 5
2026-08-04	$9.00	$66,651,589,649	19 / 5
2026-08-05	$9.06	$66,956,158,039	20 / 6
2026-08-06	$8.71	$64,910,962,240	12 / 5
2026-08-07	$8.71	$64,910,962,240	12 / 6
2026-08-08	$8.99	$65,821,652,700	20 / 6
2026-08-09	$8.99	$65,821,652,700	20 / 6
2026-08-10	$8.99	$65,821,652,700	20 / 6
2026-08-11	$8.71	$64,910,962,240	12 / 6
2026-08-12	$9.34	$66,424,643,240	20 / 5
2026-08-13	$8.71	$64,910,962,240	12 / 6
2026-08-14	$8.71	$64,910,962,240	12 / 6
2026-08-15	$8.71	$64,910,962,240	12 / 5
2026-08-16	$8.71	$64,910,962,240	12 / 5
2026-08-17	$8.71	$64,910,962,240	12 / 5
2026-08-18	$8.71	$64,910,962,240	12 / 5
2026-08-19	$8.71	$64,910,962,240	12 / 5
2026-08-20	$8.94	$65,667,329,398	11 / 5
2026-08-21	$9.02	$65,727,538,329	11 / 5
2026-08-22	$9.08	$65,727,538,329	11 / 5
2026-08-23	$9.08	$65,727,538,329	11 / 5
2026-08-24	$9.08	$65,727,538,329	11 / 5
2026-08-25	$9.15	$65,811,868,565	11 / 5
2026-08-26	$9.15	$65,811,868,565	11 / 5
2026-08-27	$9.15	$65,811,868,565	11 / 5
2026-08-28	$9.15	$65,811,868,565	11 / 5
2026-08-29	$9.15	$65,811,868,565	11 / 5
2026-08-30	$9.15	$65,811,868,565	11 / 5
2026-08-31	$9.15	$65,811,868,565	11 / 5
2026-09-01	$9.15	$65,811,868,565	11 / 5
2026-09-02	$9.15	$65,811,868,565	11 / 5
2026-09-03	$9.15	$65,811,868,565	11 / 5
2026-09-04	$9.15	$65,811,868,565	11 / 5
2026-09-05	$9.15	$65,811,868,565	12 / 5
2026-09-06	$9.15	$65,811,868,565	12 / 5
2026-09-07	$9.15	$65,811,868,565	12 / 5
2026-09-08	$9.15	$65,811,868,565	12 / 5
2026-09-09	$9.16	$65,811,868,565	12 / 5
2026-09-10	$9.16	$65,811,868,565	12 / 5
2026-09-11	$9.25	$65,811,868,565	12 / 5
2026-09-12	$9.25	$65,811,868,565	12 / 5
2026-09-13	$9.25	$65,811,868,565	12 / 5
2026-09-14	$9.25	$65,811,868,565	12 / 5
2026-09-15	$9.25	$65,811,868,565	12 / 5
2026-09-16	$9.25	$65,811,868,565	13 / 7
2026-09-17	$9.25	$65,811,868,565	14 / 8
2026-09-18	$9.25	$65,811,868,565	14 / 8
2026-09-19	$9.25	$65,811,868,565	14 / 8
2026-09-20	$9.25	$65,811,868,565	14 / 8
2026-09-21	$9.25	$65,811,868,565	14 / 8
2026-09-22	$9.25	$65,811,868,565	14 / 8
2026-09-23	$9.29	$66,102,025,211	14 / 8
2026-09-24	$9.29	$66,102,025,211	14 / 8
2026-09-25	$9.29	$66,102,025,211	14 / 8
2026-09-26	$9.29	$66,102,025,211	14 / 8
2026-09-27	$9.29	$66,102,025,211	14 / 8
2026-09-28	$9.29	$66,102,025,211	14 / 8
2026-09-29	$9.29	$66,102,025,211	14 / 8
2026-09-30	$9.29	$66,102,025,211	14 / 8
2026-10-01	$9.29	$66,102,025,211	14 / 8
2026-10-02	$9.29	$66,102,025,211	14 / 8
2026-10-03	$9.30	$66,156,473,994	14 / 8
2026-10-04	$9.34	$66,156,473,994	14 / 8
2026-10-05	$9.34	$66,156,473,994	15 / 9
2026-10-06	$9.35	$66,156,473,994	15 / 9
2026-10-07	$9.51	$66,517,650,465	15 / 9
2026-10-08	$9.74	$67,010,547,684	15 / 9
2026-10-09	$9.75	$67,060,307,292	15 / 9
2026-10-10	$9.75	$67,060,307,292	15 / 9
2026-10-11	$9.75	$67,186,836,704	16 / 10
2026-10-12	$9.75	$67,186,836,704	16 / 10
2026-10-13	$9.73	$67,186,836,704	16 / 10
2026-10-14	$9.73	$67,186,836,704	16 / 10
2026-10-15	$9.83	$67,217,702,151	16 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	19	9	1
2026-06-01	19	9	0
2026-07-01	19	7	0
2026-08-01	20	7	0
2026-09-01	19	9	0
2026-10-01	19	9	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 15 · prior Aug 19

$151.00 → $159.00+5.3%

Truist FinancialOct 7 · prior May 1

$128.00 → $136.00+6.3%

JefferiesOct 6

$174.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$95.70$191.40

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage capital expenditures around $12 to $12.5 billion annuallyCapital expenditures: $3.024B
Return 45% of cash from operations to shareholdersDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain and grow production levels near 2.33 MMBOEDPublished status: Under Pressure
Advance major projects on schedule, e.g. Willow at 50% completionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ConocoPhillips outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

COP represents a stable investment in the energy sector, with management focused on maintaining production and returning cash to shareholders. The current thesis state is cautious, given recent mixed performance and a need for consistent execution.

What's priced into ConocoPhillips

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations that are not overly aggressive. There is a low fragility tier, indicating that while execution quality is weak, it is not fully reflected in the current valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may show mixed results as management continues to prioritize production and capital discipline. Recent financial performance has been neutral, and there is a moderate risk of missing guidance, though the probability is relatively low.

What ConocoPhillips hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including inflation trends and the performance of sector peers like EOG and OXY. Additionally, any cuts to guidance could negatively impact sentiment and estimates.