Antero Resources (AR)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$40.16+2.87%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Antero Resources’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+10.8% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.39 → 4.86 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.78B
EPS	—	1.434
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	6.72B
EPS	—	4.452
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	6.83B
EPS	—	4.861

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations growth	Cash from operations rose from $458M to $859M, supporting financial strength.	Improving	Cash from operations falls below $458M next year	Cash from operations: $438.849M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $859M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026438,849,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted Free Cash Flow before changes in working capital increased from $156 million in 2025-Q2 to $220 million in 2026-Q2, a 41% increase year-over-year. The first quarter 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow was $657 million, up from $236 million a year earlier. Management's focus on cash flow growth is delivering with consistent increases in adjusted free cash flow. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Manage debt and capital allocation prudently	A supporting condition in Antero Resources's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or reduce net debt levels.	Improving	Significant increase in net debt or worsening credit metrics	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improvement through cost cuts	Cost cuts have improved operating income from $271M to $729M year over year.	Improving	Operating income falls below $271M next year	Operating income: $375.459M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $729M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026375,459,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b372754d-2c5d-40d0-a3d5-838d6e3a75a7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 10% annually	A primary condition in Antero Resources's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year	Revenue growth: 20.22% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202620.219685 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b372754d-2c5d-40d0-a3d5-838d6e3a75a7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Net daily natural gas equivalent production grew from approximately 3.4 Bcfe/d in 2025-Q4 to a company record 4.1 Bcfe/d in 2026-Q2, a 20%+ increase year-over-year. Management has consistently emphasized production growth through acquisitions and organic drilling, and the trajectory is delivering with production and revenue growth evident in the financials. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.86

$4.20 → $4.86 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.83B

$6.65B → $6.83B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.20	$6,652,148,160	16 / 8
2026-07-25	$4.20	$6,652,148,160	16 / 8
2026-07-26	$4.20	$6,652,148,160	16 / 8
2026-07-27	$4.17	$6,619,367,655	11 / 7
2026-07-28	$4.20	$6,652,148,160	16 / 8
2026-07-29	$4.20	$6,652,148,160	16 / 8
2026-07-30	$4.51	$6,652,148,160	9 / 8
2026-07-31	$4.29	$6,702,950,160	15 / 8
2026-08-01	$4.25	$6,670,573,415	10 / 7
2026-08-02	$4.26	$6,702,518,258	11 / 7
2026-08-03	$4.35	$6,718,849,080	16 / 10
2026-08-04	$4.35	$6,718,849,080	16 / 10
2026-08-05	$4.33	$6,702,549,080	16 / 10
2026-08-06	$4.33	$6,702,549,080	16 / 10
2026-08-07	$4.26	$6,702,518,258	11 / 7
2026-08-08	$4.36	$6,734,304,440	16 / 10
2026-08-09	$4.36	$6,734,304,440	16 / 10
2026-08-10	$4.36	$6,734,304,440	16 / 10
2026-08-11	$4.36	$6,734,304,440	16 / 10
2026-08-12	$4.36	$6,734,294,440	16 / 10
2026-08-13	$4.36	$6,734,294,440	16 / 10
2026-08-14	$4.26	$6,702,518,258	11 / 7
2026-08-15	$4.26	$6,702,518,258	11 / 8
2026-08-16	$4.26	$6,702,518,258	11 / 8
2026-08-17	$4.26	$6,702,518,258	11 / 8
2026-08-18	$4.26	$6,702,518,258	11 / 8
2026-08-19	$4.26	$6,702,518,258	11 / 8
2026-08-20	$4.30	$6,668,006,601	11 / 8
2026-08-21	$4.30	$6,668,006,601	11 / 8
2026-08-22	$4.30	$6,668,006,601	11 / 8
2026-08-23	$4.30	$6,668,006,601	11 / 8
2026-08-24	$4.30	$6,668,006,601	11 / 8
2026-08-25	$4.29	$6,669,314,293	11 / 8
2026-08-26	$4.29	$6,669,314,293	11 / 8
2026-08-27	$4.29	$6,669,314,293	11 / 8
2026-08-28	$4.29	$6,669,314,293	11 / 8
2026-08-29	$4.29	$6,669,314,293	11 / 8
2026-08-30	$4.29	$6,669,314,293	11 / 8
2026-08-31	$4.29	$6,669,314,293	11 / 8
2026-09-01	$4.34	$6,682,191,755	11 / 8
2026-09-02	$4.34	$6,682,191,755	11 / 8
2026-09-03	$4.37	$6,697,797,986	11 / 8
2026-09-04	$4.37	$6,697,797,986	11 / 8
2026-09-05	$4.37	$6,697,797,986	11 / 8
2026-09-06	$4.37	$6,697,797,986	11 / 8
2026-09-07	$4.37	$6,697,797,986	11 / 8
2026-09-08	$4.37	$6,697,797,986	11 / 8
2026-09-09	$4.37	$6,697,797,986	11 / 8
2026-09-10	$4.37	$6,697,797,986	11 / 8
2026-09-11	$4.37	$6,697,797,986	11 / 8
2026-09-12	$4.37	$6,697,797,986	11 / 8
2026-09-13	$4.37	$6,697,797,986	12 / 8
2026-09-14	$4.37	$6,697,797,986	12 / 8
2026-09-15	$4.37	$6,697,797,986	12 / 8
2026-09-16	$4.37	$6,697,797,986	12 / 8
2026-09-17	$4.37	$6,697,797,986	11 / 8
2026-09-18	$4.37	$6,697,797,986	11 / 8
2026-09-19	$4.37	$6,697,797,986	11 / 8
2026-09-20	$4.39	$6,708,797,986	12 / 8
2026-09-21	$4.39	$6,708,797,986	12 / 8
2026-09-22	$4.39	$6,708,797,986	12 / 8
2026-09-23	$4.39	$6,708,797,986	12 / 8
2026-09-24	$4.39	$6,708,797,986	12 / 8
2026-09-25	$4.42	$6,708,797,986	12 / 8
2026-09-26	$4.42	$6,708,797,986	12 / 8
2026-09-27	$4.42	$6,708,797,986	12 / 8
2026-09-28	$4.42	$6,708,797,986	12 / 8
2026-09-29	$4.42	$6,708,797,986	12 / 8
2026-09-30	$4.42	$6,708,797,986	12 / 8
2026-10-01	$4.42	$6,708,797,986	12 / 8
2026-10-02	$4.44	$6,720,554,832	12 / 8
2026-10-03	$4.45	$6,753,158,058	12 / 9
2026-10-04	$4.48	$6,753,158,058	12 / 9
2026-10-05	$4.48	$6,753,158,058	12 / 9
2026-10-06	$4.51	$6,743,800,915	12 / 9
2026-10-07	$4.51	$6,748,927,372	12 / 9
2026-10-08	$4.53	$6,742,853,644	12 / 9
2026-10-09	$4.46	$6,702,925,073	11 / 9
2026-10-10	$4.46	$6,702,925,073	11 / 9
2026-10-11	$4.46	$6,702,925,073	12 / 9
2026-10-12	$4.46	$6,702,925,073	12 / 9
2026-10-13	$4.56	$6,713,199,002	12 / 9
2026-10-14	$4.56	$6,713,199,002	12 / 9
2026-10-15	$4.57	$6,713,199,002	12 / 9
2026-10-16	$4.84	$6,788,106,930	11 / 8
2026-10-17	$4.84	$6,788,106,930	11 / 8
2026-10-18	$4.84	$6,788,106,930	12 / 9
2026-10-19	$4.88	$6,788,106,930	12 / 9
2026-10-20	$4.88	$6,788,106,930	12 / 9
2026-10-21	$4.85	$6,822,909,730	12 / 9
2026-10-22	$4.85	$6,822,909,730	12 / 9
2026-10-23	$4.85	$6,822,909,730	12 / 9
2026-10-24	$4.86	$6,827,002,130	12 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	7
2026-06-01	14	7
2026-07-01	14	6
2026-08-01	14	7
2026-09-01	14	7
2026-10-01	15	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 15 · prior Aug 19

$49.00 → $51.00+4.1%

ScotiabankOct 14

$46.00New observation · no comparable prior

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 8 · prior Jun 25

$57.00 → $51.00-10.5%

UBSOct 6 · prior Sep 14

$58.00 → $54.00-6.9%

Truist FinancialOct 5 · prior Jul 9

$52.00 → $46.00-11.5%

JefferiesOct 2 · prior May 1

$57.00 → $56.00-1.8%

$0$31.90$63.80

1 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations growthCash from operations: $438.849M
Manage debt and capital allocation prudentlyQualitative condition
Operating income improvement through cost cutsOperating income: $375.459M
Revenue growth at or above 10% annuallyRevenue growth: 20.22%

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Antero Resources outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AR is a growth-oriented energy producer with a sector tailwind, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact: recent financial performance remains strong, while management is delivering production growth and higher adjusted free cash flow.

What's priced into Antero Resources

The evidence rates AR as cheap versus peers, with a justified priced-in setup and low fragility. Expectations appear restrained, but valuation evidence has only medium confidence and the sector remains turbulent.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, production growth and higher adjusted free cash flow support the business, while lower cash production costs show progress toward management’s cost goal. Near term, the July guidance reduction and consecutive earnings misses make execution less certain, despite a low estimated miss risk.

What Antero Resources hinges on

A guidance increase next quarter would show a recovery from the recent reduction, while continued production growth and cost progress would support the longer-term thesis. The energy backdrop is another swing factor: continued strength at COP, EOG, and OXY could sustain the sector tailwind, while weaker results or lower guidance from them could erode it.