Expand Energy (EXE)

NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$93.41+2.87%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Expand Energy’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-3.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.62 → 8.35 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Invest $2.85 billion to support production growth	Expand Energy plans to invest $2.85 billion for production growth.	Intact	Capex falls below $2.0 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $753M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Capex >= $2.85 billion in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 2026753,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Reduce debt by at least $1 billion	Debt reduction of at least $1 billion supports the balance sheet.	Under Pressure	Debt reduction less than $500 million in next 12 months	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Generate free cash flow above $218 million	Free cash flow is expected above $218 million.	Intact	FCF falls below $150 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $343M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: FCF >= $218 million in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 2026343,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operate 11 to 12 rigs in 2026	A primary condition in Expand Energy's published investment case. The stated target is 11 to 12 rigs in 2026.	Under Pressure	Rig count falls below 10 rigs in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management consistently guides to running 11-12 rigs with capital investment around $2.85 billion to produce approximately 7.5 Bcfe/d in 2026. Production guidance increased from 7.15 Bcfe/d in 2025-Q3 to 7.5 Bcfe/d in 2026-Q2, with capital investment rising from $2.6B to $2.85B. The trajectory matches management's stated operational plans and is delivering as expected. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.35

$8.04 → $8.35 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$13.77B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.04	$13,769,526,807	14 / 7
2026-07-25	$8.36	$10,354,827,780	23 / 8
2026-07-26	$8.36	$10,354,827,780	23 / 8
2026-07-27	$8.36	$10,354,827,780	23 / 8
2026-07-28	$7.92	$13,768,285,074	15 / 7
2026-07-29	$8.42	$10,339,754,780	23 / 8
2026-07-30	$8.50	$13,596,743,941	15 / 7
2026-07-31	$8.67	$13,197,612,423	15 / 7
2026-08-01	$8.67	$13,197,612,423	15 / 7
2026-08-02	$8.99	$10,270,140,480	23 / 8
2026-08-03	$8.67	$13,197,612,423	15 / 7
2026-08-04	$8.99	$10,270,140,480	23 / 8
2026-08-05	$8.67	$13,197,612,423	15 / 7
2026-08-06	$9.13	$10,185,047,760	23 / 9
2026-08-07	$8.75	$13,205,812,423	15 / 8
2026-08-08	$9.19	$10,181,714,420	23 / 9
2026-08-09	$9.19	$10,181,714,420	23 / 9
2026-08-10	$9.19	$10,181,714,420	23 / 9
2026-08-11	$8.75	$13,205,812,423	15 / 8
2026-08-12	$9.03	$10,354,589,110	20 / 7
2026-08-13	$8.75	$13,205,812,423	15 / 8
2026-08-14	$8.75	$13,205,812,423	15 / 8
2026-08-15	$8.75	$13,205,812,423	14 / 7
2026-08-16	$8.75	$13,205,812,423	14 / 7
2026-08-17	$8.75	$13,205,812,423	14 / 7
2026-08-18	$8.75	$13,205,812,423	14 / 7
2026-08-19	$8.75	$13,205,812,423	14 / 7
2026-08-20	$8.69	$13,147,299,024	14 / 6
2026-08-21	$8.61	$13,121,594,713	14 / 6
2026-08-22	$8.57	$13,121,594,713	14 / 6
2026-08-23	$8.57	$13,121,594,713	14 / 6
2026-08-24	$8.57	$13,121,594,713	14 / 6
2026-08-25	$8.55	$12,965,808,999	14 / 6
2026-08-26	$8.55	$12,965,808,999	14 / 6
2026-08-27	$8.55	$12,965,808,999	14 / 6
2026-08-28	$8.55	$12,965,808,999	14 / 6
2026-08-29	$8.67	$12,961,124,372	14 / 6
2026-08-30	$8.67	$12,961,124,372	14 / 6
2026-08-31	$8.67	$12,961,124,372	14 / 6
2026-09-01	$8.67	$12,961,124,372	14 / 6
2026-09-02	$8.67	$12,961,124,372	14 / 6
2026-09-03	$8.67	$12,961,124,372	14 / 6
2026-09-04	$8.67	$12,961,124,372	14 / 6
2026-09-05	$8.54	$12,813,554,361	14 / 6
2026-09-06	$8.54	$12,813,554,361	14 / 6
2026-09-07	$8.54	$12,813,554,361	14 / 6
2026-09-08	$8.54	$12,813,554,361	14 / 6
2026-09-09	$8.54	$12,813,554,361	14 / 6
2026-09-10	$8.54	$12,794,165,494	14 / 6
2026-09-11	$8.63	$12,794,165,494	14 / 6
2026-09-12	$8.62	$12,777,832,161	14 / 6
2026-09-13	$8.62	$12,777,832,161	14 / 6
2026-09-14	$8.62	$12,777,832,161	14 / 6
2026-09-15	$8.62	$12,777,832,161	14 / 6
2026-09-16	$8.57	$12,732,032,161	14 / 6
2026-09-17	$8.57	$12,732,032,161	14 / 6
2026-09-18	$8.57	$12,732,032,161	14 / 6
2026-09-19	$8.57	$12,732,032,161	14 / 6
2026-09-20	$8.57	$12,732,032,161	14 / 6
2026-09-21	$8.57	$12,732,032,161	14 / 6
2026-09-22	$8.45	$12,732,032,161	14 / 6
2026-09-23	$8.45	$12,732,032,161	14 / 6
2026-09-24	$8.47	$12,732,032,161	14 / 6
2026-09-25	$8.47	$12,732,032,161	14 / 6
2026-09-26	$8.47	$12,732,032,161	14 / 6
2026-09-27	$8.47	$12,732,032,161	14 / 6
2026-09-28	$8.47	$12,732,032,161	14 / 6
2026-09-29	$8.47	$12,732,032,161	14 / 6
2026-09-30	$8.47	$12,732,032,161	14 / 6
2026-10-01	$8.47	$12,732,032,161	14 / 6
2026-10-02	$8.49	$12,732,098,827	14 / 6
2026-10-03	$8.41	$12,530,221,077	14 / 6
2026-10-04	$8.42	$12,530,221,077	14 / 6
2026-10-05	$8.42	$12,530,221,077	14 / 6
2026-10-06	$8.37	$12,540,316,448	14 / 6
2026-10-07	$8.31	$12,524,628,948	14 / 6
2026-10-08	$8.30	$12,524,628,948	14 / 6
2026-10-09	$8.30	$12,524,628,948	14 / 6
2026-10-10	$8.28	$12,524,628,948	9 / 5
2026-10-11	$8.28	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-12	$8.28	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-13	$8.39	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-14	$8.39	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-15	$8.35	Unavailable	5 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	23	6
2026-06-01	20	6
2026-07-01	20	6
2026-08-01	22	6
2026-09-01	23	5
2026-10-01	24	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 24 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 15 · prior Oct 2

$122.00 → $120.00-1.6%

ScotiabankOct 14

$111.00New observation · no comparable prior

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 6

$138.00New observation · no comparable prior

Truist FinancialOct 5 · prior Jul 10

$117.00 → $120.00+2.6%

Raymond JamesOct 5 · prior Sep 9

$147.00 → $141.00-4.1%

BernsteinOct 5

$127.00New observation · no comparable prior

JefferiesOct 1

$136.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$80.85$161.70

1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Invest $2.85 billion to support production growthCapital expenditures: $753M
Reduce debt by at least $1 billionPublished status: Under Pressure
Generate free cash flow above $218 millionFree cash flow: $343M
Operate 11 to 12 rigs in 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Expand Energy outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder in the energy sector, with a focus on long-term growth through strategic acquisitions and operational improvements. The current thesis state is intact, with management executing on key priorities despite some volatility.

What's priced into Expand Energy

The market currently prices EXE as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a justified valuation given the sector's dynamics. There is an expectations gap, indicating that investors may not fully anticipate the potential for improved performance from management's initiatives.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to improve as management continues to deliver on its free cash flow targets and production goals. However, there are mixed signals regarding the impact of the Twin Eagle acquisition, which could influence future performance.

What Expand Energy hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for inflation to reaccelerate, which could benefit the energy sector. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders and any changes in guidance from EXE will be critical to watch.