Valero Energy (VLO)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-14
$397.04+3.68%
Close 2026-09-15 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-14
Research Workspace
Put VLO beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Energy is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 13% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 2% a day.
View RiskHealthy across the board
Valero Energy's operational excellence and strong earnings growth support its investment case. Revenue grew 49% year over year, and the latest quarter beat expectations. It trades at 16× P/E versus a peer median of 23×, suggesting the price reflects less growth than forecast. The next-quarter miss probability is around 13%. Risks include potential guidance cuts, which could negatively impact estimates and stock performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% above where it trades. Our read remains intact.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-15. VLO is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 20 analysts currently covering VLO (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for VLO in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare VLO with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put VLO next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Downgrade indicates potential headwinds affecting valuation.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-15. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $397.04
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $397.04.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Drive operational excellence and commercial execution
Strong earnings indicate operational excellence and commercial execution.
Advances: Increase and maintain quarterly cash dividend
Strong earnings and buyback support dividend increase objective.
Threatens: Maintain disciplined capital investments around $1.7B annually
Increased capex may strain capital allocation discipline.
Advances: Drive operational excellence and commercial execution
Significant profit increase supports operational excellence.
Threatens: Complete St. Charles FCC Unit optimization
Slowed biofuel imports may hinder FCC Unit optimization.
Advances: Maintain capital investments
Higher margins support capital allocation objectives.
Refining margin tailwinds directly support profitability.