Valero Energy (VLO)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-10-29
$399.66+3.92%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put VLO beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Energy is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 25% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 19%.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 2% a day.
View RiskValero’s refining execution and unusually strong earnings yield support the thesis, though earnings quality remains mixed. Revenue grew 49% year over year in Q2 FY2026; third-quarter 2026 earnings beat consensus. Valero trades at 9× P/E versus a 22× peer median and its 17× historical multiple. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, though management is behind on a stated commitment. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 14%. The 22× peer gap makes the low multiple sensitive to changing expectations. peer multiples imply a price about 34% above where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. VLO is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 22 analysts currently covering VLO (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for VLO in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put VLO next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Increase and maintain quarterly cash dividend
Quarterly dividend declaration advances the stated objective to increase and maintain the cash dividend.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $399.66
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $399.66.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Maintain disciplined capital investments around $1.7B annually
2026 capex guidance exceeds the roughly $1.7B annual target, modestly pressuring capital discipline.
Advances: Drive operational excellence and commercial execution
Global fuel shortage enhances operational excellence and profitability.
Profitability decline could impact cash dividend and capital investments.
Downgrade indicates potential headwinds affecting valuation.
Advances: Drive operational excellence and commercial execution
Strong earnings indicate operational excellence and commercial execution.
Advances: Increase and maintain quarterly cash dividend
Strong earnings and buyback support dividend increase objective.
Threatens: Maintain disciplined capital investments around $1.7B annually
Increased capex may strain capital allocation discipline.