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Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$53.43-4.28%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, and management's track record is steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, PARR is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
- Market cap
- $2.80B
- Employees
- 1,758
- IPO date
- 2000-10-05
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $53.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$74.79consensus
Range $53.41 – $151.88
vs price: -29% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$60.47consensus
Range $17.69 – $167.21
vs price: -12% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $53 PARR trades at 6× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $75 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $50–$79. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
5.7x
peer 15.8x · own history 5.7x
Premium
0.4x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-28%
our forecast 3%
Our fair value
$74.55
range $53.41 – $151.88
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivefair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 28% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
52nd pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.89x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 38% of the time over the next year (vs 44% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
11th pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to rise when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +3.5% / 30d, n=6for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $6.88 → $7.12 (+3.5% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 40.1% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$249.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$498.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,621.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
The signal label changed from mixed to mild favorable. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Earnings quality is fragile, and management is neutral.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for net income improvement in Q2 results
Why it matters: More net income shows better financial health and how well the company runs.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Net income for Q2 2026 exceeds $54.5 million reported for Q1 2026.
Disproves:Net income for Q2 2026 falls below $54.5 million.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PARR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 3% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MPC, VLO, and PSX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting PARR and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If PARR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit PARR and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If PARR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like MPC, VLO, and PSX start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping PARR and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-141mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Senior Notes Offering On May 14, 2026, Par Petroleum, LLC (the “Issuer”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), completed the issuance of $500 million in aggregate principal amount of 7.375% Senior Notes due 2034 (the “Notes”) in a private placement (the “Offering”) pursuant to Rule 144A and Regulation S under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). The Notes were issued under an Indenture, d…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-5.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.