Reading CLNE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CLNE free→Reading CLNE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CLNE free→NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.89. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.87 CLNE trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $2.51 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 26% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.54x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.01 → $-0.01 (+1.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$176.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$478.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,889.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth shows Clean Energy's business is getting stronger.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CLNE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release containing this information is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange A…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CLNE Clean Energy Fuels Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | fair | elevated |
MPC Marathon Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VLO Valero Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PSX Phillips 66 | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | full | moderate |
DINO HF Sinclair | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Energy names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 45% for the rest of the cohort, n=249).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve an Adjusted EBITDA range of $70 million to $75 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operations, which showed a negative trend in the latest quarter.
Manage the transition of the new CEO to ensure continuity and strategic alignment.
Why it matters: What management says about RFP status can show if they will win contracts.
Confirms one read:Management states RFP status has improved to neutral or strong.
Confirms the other:Management says RFP status is still weak or getting worse.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. President and Chief Executive Officer Transition On April 23, 2026, Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (the “Company”) announced that Barclay F. Corbus, the Company’s former Senior Vice President, Strategic Development and Head of Renewable Fuels, has been appointed as the Company’s new President and Chief Executive Officer, succeeding Andrew J. Littlefair e…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 24, 2026, Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release containing this information is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange A…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On November 17, 2025, Messrs. Aimeric Ramadier and Marc de Guilhem de Lataillade notified Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (the “Company”) of their resignation from the board of directors of the Company, effective as of November 18, 2025. The resignations of Messrs. Ramadier and de Guilhem de Lataillade were not due to any disagreement with the Company on…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2025, Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release containing this information is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities E…