Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)

NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$1.46+4.29%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Clean Energy Fuels Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	106.13M
EPS	—	-0.016
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	433.81M
EPS	—	-0.023
EBITDA	$70M–$75Mnon-GAAP	—
EBITDA (fuel distribution)	$67M–$69.9Mnon-GAAP	—
EBITDA (RNG upstream)	$3M–$5.1Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	440.69M
EPS	—	-0.01

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $70 million in 2026	Clean Energy Fuels aims to grow adjusted EBITDA to $70-$75 million in 2026.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $60 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA was $16.6M in 2026-Q1 and $16.0M in 2026-Q2, compared to $17.1M and $17.5M in the same quarters of 2025, respectively. Management projects full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $70M to $75M, up from $60M to $65M in 2025, showing a trajectory of steady growth but with slight softness in quarterly results so far. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Cash from operations improves from negative to positive	This could lead to improved profitability and cash flow over time.	Improving	Cash from operations remains negative through FY26	Cash from operations: $28.786M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0 USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202628,786,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities declined from $23.4M in 2025-Q1 to negative $8.4M in 2026-Q1, indicating challenges in improving cash flow. The trajectory shows limited progress on this priority so far. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Successful CEO and COO transition with stable leadership	Leadership changes bring fresh management focused on stability.	Intact	Leadership turmoil or key executive departures occur	Qualitative: 3 orderly transitions (CEO, COO, CFO) completed; no turmoil CEO promoted Apr 2026, COO promoted Jun 2026, CFO succeeded internally Oct 2026. No executive departures or turmoil reported. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.45B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$453,577,820	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$453,577,820	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$453,577,820	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$453,577,820	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$453,577,820	4 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$453,577,820	4 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$453,577,820	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$453,577,820	4 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$453,577,820	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$453,577,820	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$453,577,820	4 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$453,577,820	4 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	1
2026-06-01	6	1
2026-07-01	5	2
2026-08-01	4	2
2026-09-01	4	2
2026-10-01	4	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $70 million in 2026Published status: Broken
Cash from operations improves from negative to positiveCash from operations: $28.786M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-55.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, loss-making growth business with a sector tailwind, not a proven earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: management’s targets remain in place, but recent results are weak relative to the industry cohort.

What's priced into Clean Energy Fuels Corp.

The valuation evidence points to CLNE being cheap versus peers, while the model’s confidence is low and its expectations gap is negative. The snapshot labels expectations as justified rather than fragile, though it flags a turbulent sector backdrop.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, execution is mixed: first-half 2026 Adjusted EBITDA was below the same quarters last year, while management still projects full-year growth. RNG gallons sold growth slowed from 33.2% in the first quarter to 2.9% in the second, and station expansion continues. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; a CFO transition is noted, but its impact is not established in the evidence.

What Clean Energy Fuels Corp. hinges on

Over the next year, the thesis hinges on management delivering its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA goal and sustaining fleet volume growth and network expansion. Sector support could continue if MPC, VLO, and PSX keep reporting strong results, but weaker results from those companies could remove that tailwind. A guidance cut is another key downside scenario.