Reading DK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DK free→
Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$44.04-1.54%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, DK is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 71% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
- Market cap
- $2.74B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2017-08-07
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $44.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$152.06consensus
Range $140.77 – $193.76
vs price: -71% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$217.13consensus
Range $113.86 – $294.65
vs price: -80% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $44 DK trades at 5× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $152 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $41–$60. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
4.9x
peer 15.9x · own history —
Premium
0.3x peer
Growth the price needs
-71%
our forecast -6%
Our fair value
$152.06
range $140.04 – $203.30
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 71% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
34th pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -20.61x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
- the US dollar: This stock tends to rise when the dollar strengthens.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +14.6% / 30d, n=9for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.16 → $2.47 (+14.6% / 30d). 5 raised, 2 cut, 9 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.0% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$206.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$533.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,602.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Q2 earnings report on August 6
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well Delek is managing costs and revenue. This is key for future outlook.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a profit or positive surprise.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a loss or negative surprise.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2020-03-176y agoSeeking Alpha
Threatens: Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.255 per share
Dividend maintenance is threatened by demand uncertainty.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 3% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MPC, VLO, and PSX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting DK and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If DK raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit DK and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If DK cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like MPC, VLO, and PSX start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping DK and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-151mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 15, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Delek US Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) closed the previously announced amendment (“Amendment No. 1”) to the Amended and Restated Term Loan Credit Agreement, dated as of November 18, 2022 (the “Existing Term Credit Facility”, and as amended by Amendment No. 1, the “Term Credit Facility”), by and among the Company, as borrower, certain subsidiaries of the Company, as guarantors, the lenders party thereto, and Wel…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-9.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.