Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$74.41-1.82%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Delek US Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+30.8% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.33 → 10.90 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	3.62B
EPS	—	5.281
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	14.36B
EPS	—	18.225
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	13.19B
EPS	—	10.896

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EBITDA between $520M and $560M in 2026	Adjusted EBITDA guidance is set between $520M and $560M for 2026.	Intact	adjusted EBITDA falls below $520M in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Delek Logistics reported adjusted EBITDA of $143.5 million in 2026-Q2, up from $132.4 million in 2026-Q1, supporting the annual guidance range of $520 million to $560 million. Management's statements and financial results show delivering progress toward this guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase annual run-rate cash flow improvements to $220M	Delek US Holdings is improving cash flow with a target of $220M annual run-rate improvements.	Improving	annual run-rate cash flow improvements fall below $200M	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management reported advancing the Enterprise Optimization Plan, increasing annual run-rate cash flow improvements from approximately $200 million to $220 million by 2026-Q1, with continued progress noted in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows delivering incremental cash flow improvements. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.255 per share	The company maintains a stable dividend of $0.255 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.255	Dividend per share: $0.26 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.255 USD per share quarterly dividend. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 20260.255 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e38f7f11-268f-42cc-9ce7-561e148c9bcc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company consistently paid and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.255 per share throughout 2025-Q4 to 2026-Q2, demonstrating stable capital return to shareholders. The trajectory is delivering consistent dividend payments as committed. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain revenue growth above $2.65B quarterly	A primary condition in Delek US Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=2.65 USD_BILLIONS quarterly revenue.	Intact	quarterly revenue falls below $2.43B	Revenue: $4.087B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.65 USD_BILLIONS quarterly revenue. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 20264,087,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e38f7f11-268f-42cc-9ce7-561e148c9bcc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Delek Logistics reported adjusted EBITDA of $143.5 million in 2026-Q2, up from $132.4 million in 2026-Q1, supporting the annual guidance range of $520 million to $560 million. Management's statements and financial results show delivering progress toward this guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.90

$3.05 → $10.90 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$13.19B

$11.96B → $13.19B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.05	$11,959,511,300	10 / 9
2026-07-25	$3.05	$12,134,345,150	10 / 9
2026-07-26	$3.05	$12,134,345,150	10 / 9
2026-07-27	$3.05	$12,134,345,150	10 / 9
2026-07-28	$3.05	$12,134,345,150	10 / 9
2026-07-29	$3.21	$12,134,345,150	10 / 9
2026-07-30	$3.21	$12,134,345,150	10 / 9
2026-07-31	$3.21	$12,134,345,150	10 / 9
2026-08-01	$3.94	$11,893,913,892	7 / 7
2026-08-02	$3.21	$12,134,345,150	10 / 9
2026-08-03	$3.94	$11,893,913,892	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$3.21	$12,134,345,150	10 / 9
2026-08-05	$3.21	$12,134,345,150	10 / 9
2026-08-06	$3.21	$12,134,345,150	10 / 9
2026-08-07	$4.20	$11,761,429,508	7 / 7
2026-08-08	$2.65	$12,016,581,250	8 / 9
2026-08-09	$2.65	$12,016,581,250	8 / 9
2026-08-10	$4.20	$11,761,429,508	7 / 7
2026-08-11	$3.68	$12,412,903,900	10 / 8
2026-08-12	$3.71	$12,414,903,900	10 / 8
2026-08-13	$4.20	$11,761,429,508	7 / 7
2026-08-14	$4.20	$11,761,429,508	7 / 7
2026-08-15	$4.20	$11,761,429,508	7 / 7
2026-08-16	$4.20	$11,761,429,508	7 / 7
2026-08-17	$4.20	$11,761,429,508	7 / 7
2026-08-18	$4.20	$11,761,429,508	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$4.20	$11,761,429,508	7 / 7
2026-08-20	$5.26	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-08-21	$5.26	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-08-22	$5.26	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-08-23	$5.26	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-08-24	$5.26	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-08-25	$5.60	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-08-26	$5.60	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-08-27	$5.60	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-08-28	$5.60	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-08-29	$5.60	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-08-30	$5.60	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-08-31	$5.60	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-09-01	$5.60	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-09-02	$5.74	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-09-03	$5.74	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-09-04	$5.74	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-09-05	$5.74	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-09-06	$5.74	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-09-07	$5.74	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-09-08	$5.74	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-09-09	$5.74	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-09-10	$5.74	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-09-11	$6.06	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-09-12	$6.54	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-09-13	$6.54	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-09-14	$6.54	$12,266,595,508	7 / 6
2026-09-15	$7.91	$12,426,408,420	7 / 6
2026-09-16	$8.33	$12,579,858,420	7 / 7
2026-09-17	$8.33	$12,579,858,420	7 / 7
2026-09-18	$8.33	$12,579,858,420	7 / 7
2026-09-19	$8.33	$12,579,858,420	7 / 7
2026-09-20	$8.33	$12,579,858,420	7 / 7
2026-09-21	$8.33	$12,579,858,420	7 / 7
2026-09-22	$8.33	$12,579,858,420	7 / 7
2026-09-23	$8.33	$12,579,858,420	7 / 7
2026-09-24	$8.33	$12,579,858,420	7 / 7
2026-09-25	$7.57	$12,579,858,420	7 / 6
2026-09-26	$8.33	$12,579,858,420	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$8.33	$12,579,858,420	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$8.33	$12,579,858,420	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$8.33	$12,579,858,420	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$8.33	$12,579,858,420	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$8.33	$12,579,858,420	7 / 7
2026-10-02	$8.67	$12,693,445,920	7 / 7
2026-10-03	$8.67	$12,693,445,920	7 / 7
2026-10-04	$8.67	$12,693,445,920	7 / 7
2026-10-05	$8.67	$12,693,445,920	7 / 7
2026-10-06	$8.67	$12,693,445,920	7 / 7
2026-10-07	$8.67	$12,693,445,920	7 / 7
2026-10-08	$8.24	$12,618,174,152	7 / 7
2026-10-09	$8.24	$12,658,507,485	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$8.24	$12,658,507,485	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$8.69	$12,658,507,485	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$8.69	$12,658,507,485	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$8.71	$12,659,063,040	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$8.71	$12,659,063,040	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$9.02	$12,659,063,040	7 / 8
2026-10-16	$9.42	$12,834,530,485	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$9.42	$12,834,530,485	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$10.03	$12,902,530,485	7 / 8
2026-10-19	$10.03	$12,902,530,485	7 / 8
2026-10-20	$10.27	$12,902,530,485	7 / 8
2026-10-21	$10.85	$13,073,752,707	6 / 8
2026-10-22	$10.90	$13,187,974,929	6 / 8
2026-10-23	$10.90	$13,187,974,929	6 / 8
2026-10-24	$10.90	$13,187,974,929	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	7	1
2026-06-01	6	7	1
2026-07-01	6	5	1
2026-08-01	7	5	1
2026-09-01	7	5	1
2026-10-01	7	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 15 · prior Aug 18

$83.00 → $97.00+16.9%

Wells FargoOct 14 · prior Sep 1

$82.00 → $95.00+15.9%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 8 · prior Aug 11

$66.00 → $83.00+25.8%

$0$53.35$106.70

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EBITDA between $520M and $560M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Increase annual run-rate cash flow improvements to $220MDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.255 per shareDividend per share: $0.26 per share
Sustain revenue growth above $2.65B quarterlyRevenue: $4.087B

Next proof point

Nov 6, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-36.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Delek US Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

DK is a higher-risk, energy-sector business with a logistics cash-flow component, rather than a proven steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent financial performance is neutral and trails its industry cohort, while earnings remain loss-making and management execution is rated volatile.

What's priced into Delek US Holdings, Inc.

The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure says DK is cheap versus peers, while another shows a 23% premium, and model confidence is low. The priced-in assessment calls expectations justified, with low fragility rather than a broad stack of valuation and business risks already weighing on the setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management is making progress toward its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $520 million to $560 million, with Delek Logistics reporting higher adjusted EBITDA in 2026-Q2 than in Q1. Cash-flow improvements have reached an estimated annual run rate of about $220 million, though progress is mixed, as is the record of maintaining the quarterly dividend. The near-term miss risk is rated low, but a guidance cut would matter; the energy-sector backdrop is a tailwind, and recent macro context improved.

What Delek US Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued delivery against EBITDA guidance and further cash-flow improvement, alongside management execution. In the near term, a guidance cut is a key downside scenario, while continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers MPC, VLO, and PSX could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.