Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-09
$75.28-0.52%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Delek US Holdings is improving cash flow with a target of $220M annual run-rate improvements. Revenue rose from $2.43B to $2.65B in recent quarters. The company maintains a stable dividend of $0.255 per share. Adjusted EBITDA guidance is set between $520M and $560M for 2026.
The company is loss-making with volatile management and elevated risk. Dividend maintenance faces demand uncertainty. Capital allocation shows negative signals with new financial obligations. Revenue growth and cash flow improvements may stall.
The price is about 52% below our fair value near $107, reflecting justified caution. Analysts expect about 6% revenue growth, which aligns with our view but the market prices in elevated risk and volatility.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls below $520M in 2026
Deliver on the annual adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $520 million to $560 million for 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity in the energy sector. The current thesis state shows some volatility in management and recent financial performance, making it a watch situation.
The market currently prices DK as expensive compared to its peers, reflecting a justified valuation despite some fragility. There is an expectations gap indicating that the market may be cautious about future performance.
Management is on track to meet its adjusted EBITDA guidance, but cash flow improvements and dividend maintenance show mixed results. The near-term risk is low for missing guidance, but past performance raises caution.
The long-term thesis hinges on inflation trends, guidance updates from management, and performance of sector leaders like MPC, VLO, and PSX. Positive developments in these areas could support DK's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. The company is on track to achieve its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $520 million to $560 million. There are no new threats identified that would weaken this outlook.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Delek Logistics reported adjusted EBITDA of $143.5 million in 2026-Q2, up from $132.4 million in 2026-Q1, supporting the annual guidance range of $520 million to $560 million. Management's statements and financial results show delivering progress toward this guidance.
“Delek Logistics had its best quarter reporting adjusted EBITDA of $143.5 million. It is well positioned to meet its annual EBITDA guidance of $520-560 million.”
“Delek Logistics reported record financial performance and initiated 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $520 million to $560 million.”
“Delek Logistics reported record financial performance and initiated 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $520 million to $560 million.”
Breaks if: annual run-rate cash flow improvements fall below $200M
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.255
Continue paying a regular quarterly dividend of $0.255 per share to shareholders.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company consistently paid and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.255 per share throughout 2025-Q4 to 2026-Q2, demonstrating stable capital return to shareholders. The trajectory is delivering consistent dividend payments as committed.
“Paid $15.6 million of dividends and announced regular quarterly dividend of $0.255 per share.”
Breaks if: quarterly revenue falls below $2.43B
Deliver on the annual adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $520 million to $560 million for 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Delek Logistics reported adjusted EBITDA of $143.5 million in 2026-Q2, up from $132.4 million in 2026-Q1, supporting the annual guidance range of $520 million to $560 million. Management's statements and financial results show delivering progress toward this guidance.
“Delek Logistics had its best quarter reporting adjusted EBITDA of $143.5 million. It is well positioned to meet its annual EBITDA guidance of $520-560 million.”
“Delek Logistics reported record financial performance and initiated 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $520 million to $560 million.”
“Delek Logistics reported record financial performance and initiated 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $520 million to $560 million.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, DK's performance will depend on external economic factors and internal execution. Not investment advice.