Reading PSX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PSX free→Reading PSX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PSX free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which adds to the risk profile. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, PSX trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $173.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $173 the market pays 22× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 19× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $152 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $158–$212. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 14% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.61x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 38% of the time over the next year (vs 44% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.88 → $6.58 (+11.9% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 16 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.9% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$143.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$311.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,728.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Another earnings miss would show ongoing problems. This could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 2026 earnings report shows net income below $200 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 earnings report shows net income above $300 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PSX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Phillips 66 issued a press release announcing the company's financial and operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. Additional financial and operating information about the quarter is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this report and the exhibits attached her…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$158.00 – $212.00 (median $180.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PSX Phillips 66 | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | full | moderate |
MPC Marathon Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VLO Valero Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
DINO HF Sinclair | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PBF PBF Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | — | elevated |
21 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=252).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Phillips 66 is concentrating on organic growth within its Midstream segment to achieve its 2027 targets.
Phillips 66 has committed to a capital budget of $2.4 billion for 2026, focusing on sustaining and organic growth capital.
Phillips 66 aims to capture stronger margins following refinery turnarounds.
Why it matters: A rise in earnings would show recovery from recent losses and market ups and downs.
Confirms:Q2 2026 earnings exceed $300 million, showing a recovery from Q1 earnings of $207 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 earnings drop below $200 million, showing ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Higher refining margins would show better profits after recent drops.
Confirms:Refining margins are over $12 per barrel. This shows recovery.
Disproves:Refining margins are under $10 per barrel. This shows ongoing weakness.
Why it matters: Finishing this project on time could help Midstream grow and work better.
Confirms:Iron Mesa gas plant starts operations as planned in Q1 2027.
Disproves:Construction delays push the startup past Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Growing without buying shows good management. It also means strong competition in the market.
Confirms:Midstream segment reports revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Midstream segment reports revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 6, 2026, Phillips 66 (the “Company”) issued guidance providing preliminary first-quarter 2026 financial information. The preliminary financial information is based upon the Company’s current estimates and is subject to completion of financial and operating closing procedures as of and for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the guidance is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The information in this report and the exhibits…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Term Loan Agreement On March 18, 2026 (the “Term Loan Closing Date”), Phillips 66 Company (the “Company”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Phillips 66 (“Phillips 66”), entered into a 364-day, $2.25 billion term loan credit agreement with a syndicate of banks and other financial institutions party thereto and Mizuho Bank, Ltd., as administrative agent (the “Term Loan Agreement”). The Term Loan Agreement is guaranteed by Phillips 66. The Term Loan Agreem…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 6, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Phillips 66 (the “Company”), increased the size of the Board from 14 directors to 16 directors, and appointed Kevin O. Meyers and Howard I. Ungerleider to serve on the Board, effective immediately. Dr. Meyers was appointed to the class of directors whose term expires at the Company’s annual…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure set forth in