Phillips 66 (PSX)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-10-29
$273.61-0.05%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put PSX beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Energy is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Maintain or grow EPS near $17.9 in 2026: Diluted EPS: $14.08 per share.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 27% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on earnings delivery, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskPSX’s case rests on capturing stronger margins after refinery turnarounds, with organic Midstream growth as a supporting engine. Recent earnings improved, with two consecutive quarterly beats, though revenue growth data is absent. Third-quarter non-GAAP EPS was $14.08, beating estimates by 17.6%. PSX trades at 10× P/E versus a 22× peer median; expectations look modest versus our view. Fragile cash backing and EPS below the 2026 pillar pressure the thesis. Our model puts next-quarter miss probability near 15%. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. PSX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 22 analysts currently covering PSX (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 10 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for PSX in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSX Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put PSX next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Focus on organic Midstream growth
Western Gateway spend supports organic Midstream growth; higher turnaround expense tempers margin capture.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $273.61
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $273.61.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Capture stronger margins post-turnarounds
Record profit on refining strength supports stronger post-turnaround margins, though no cash-return detail is given.
Advances: Return over 50% of operating cash flow to shareholders
Reported earnings beat and higher cash flow support shareholder returns, though the headline alone does not confirm payout delivery.
Advances: Capture stronger margins post-turnarounds
Record profit on refining strength supports stronger margins, though does not establish post-turnaround durability.
Advances: Capture stronger margins post-turnarounds
Strong refining margins and an estimates beat support margin capture, but provide limited evidence of lasting improvement.
Advances: Capture stronger margins post-turnarounds
EPS and revenue beats indicate stronger results, consistent with refining-margin improvement.
Threatens: Capture stronger margins post-turnarounds
Refinery labor disruption threatens operations and could hinder capturing stronger margins.
Advances: Focus on organic Midstream growth
AI use enhances organic Midstream growth potential.
