Phillips 66 (PSX)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-10-15

$293.17+1.37%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Phillips 66’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+20.4% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

25.45 → 30.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete $2.4 billion capital budget in 2026	A primary condition in Phillips 66's published investment case. The stated target is Allocate $2.4 billion for 2026 capital budget.	Intact	capital expenditures fall significantly below $2.4 billion in 2026	Capital expenditures: $726M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Allocate $2.4 billion for 2026 capital budget. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026726,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company announced a 2026 capital budget of $2.4 billion, split between $1.1 billion sustaining and $1.3 billion growth capital. Capital expenditures were $582M in 2026-Q1 and increased to $726M in 2026-Q2, indicating disciplined execution of the budget. The trajectory shows delivering on capital allocation plans. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain or grow EPS near $17.9 in 2026	A primary condition in Phillips 66's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $17.9 for FY26.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $17.9 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $9.55 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $17.9 for FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20269.55 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fd54fb2d-107e-4402-84e6-629b5c3ed476. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage earnings volatility from Hormuz disruptions	A supporting condition in Phillips 66's published investment case. The stated target is Limit earnings volatility from geopolitical disruptions.	Intact	Significant margin losses due to Hormuz disruptions	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Expand midstream capacity with Zeus and Coastal Bend projects	It is expanding midstream capacity with new projects.	Improving	Delays or cancellations of key midstream expansion projects	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$30.64

$18.72 → $30.64 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$163.66B

$142.76B → $163.66B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$18.72	$142,764,931,310	19 / 6
2026-07-25	$18.89	$146,623,338,642	10 / 5
2026-07-26	$18.86	$142,764,931,310	20 / 6
2026-07-27	$18.89	$146,623,338,642	10 / 5
2026-07-28	$18.86	$142,764,931,310	20 / 6
2026-07-29	$18.98	$142,764,931,310	20 / 6
2026-07-30	$19.01	$146,623,338,642	11 / 5
2026-07-31	$19.01	$146,623,338,642	11 / 5
2026-08-01	$19.01	$146,623,338,642	11 / 5
2026-08-02	$18.98	$142,764,931,310	20 / 6
2026-08-03	$18.98	$142,764,931,310	20 / 6
2026-08-04	$19.01	$146,623,338,642	11 / 5
2026-08-05	$19.01	$146,623,338,642	11 / 5
2026-08-06	$19.01	$146,623,338,642	11 / 5
2026-08-07	$19.73	$149,061,112,577	11 / 5
2026-08-08	$19.73	$149,061,112,577	11 / 5
2026-08-09	$19.91	$146,859,809,380	20 / 6
2026-08-10	$19.73	$149,061,112,577	11 / 5
2026-08-12	$20.58	$147,159,265,180	20 / 7
2026-08-13	$20.58	$147,159,265,180	20 / 7
2026-08-14	$19.73	$149,061,112,577	11 / 5
2026-08-15	$19.73	$149,061,112,577	11 / 5
2026-08-16	$19.73	$149,061,112,577	11 / 6
2026-08-17	$19.73	$149,061,112,577	11 / 6
2026-08-18	$19.73	$149,061,112,577	11 / 6
2026-08-19	$19.73	$149,061,112,577	11 / 6
2026-08-20	$22.04	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-08-21	$22.04	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-08-22	$22.04	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-08-23	$22.04	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-08-24	$22.04	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-08-25	$22.04	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-08-26	$22.16	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-08-27	$22.16	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-08-28	$22.16	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-08-29	$22.16	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-08-30	$22.16	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-08-31	$22.16	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-09-01	$22.16	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-09-02	$22.47	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-09-03	$22.47	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-09-04	$22.47	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-09-05	$22.77	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-09-06	$22.77	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-09-07	$22.77	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-09-08	$23.09	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-09-09	$23.09	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-09-10	$23.96	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-09-11	$24.11	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-09-12	$24.11	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-09-13	$24.11	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-09-14	$24.11	$154,004,341,794	11 / 6
2026-09-15	$25.45	$155,163,282,797	11 / 6
2026-09-16	$25.45	$155,163,282,797	11 / 6
2026-09-17	$25.45	$155,163,282,797	11 / 6
2026-09-18	$25.45	$155,350,182,797	11 / 6
2026-09-19	$25.45	$155,350,182,797	11 / 6
2026-09-20	$25.45	$155,350,182,797	11 / 6
2026-09-21	$25.45	$155,350,182,797	11 / 6
2026-09-22	$25.45	$155,350,182,797	11 / 6
2026-09-23	$25.45	$155,350,182,797	11 / 6
2026-09-24	$25.45	$155,350,182,797	11 / 5
2026-09-25	$25.45	$155,350,182,797	11 / 5
2026-09-26	$25.45	$155,350,182,797	11 / 5
2026-09-27	$25.45	$155,350,182,797	11 / 5
2026-09-28	$25.45	$155,350,182,797	11 / 5
2026-09-29	$25.48	$155,350,182,797	11 / 5
2026-09-30	$25.50	$155,655,773,898	11 / 5
2026-10-01	$26.31	$159,656,123,098	11 / 5
2026-10-02	$26.31	$159,656,123,098	11 / 5
2026-10-03	$26.77	$161,522,623,098	11 / 6
2026-10-04	$26.77	$161,522,623,098	11 / 6
2026-10-05	$26.77	$161,522,623,098	11 / 6
2026-10-06	$27.23	$161,522,623,098	11 / 6
2026-10-07	$27.23	$161,522,623,098	11 / 6
2026-10-08	$27.23	$161,522,623,098	11 / 6
2026-10-09	$27.21	$162,097,423,098	11 / 6
2026-10-10	$27.32	$162,046,923,098	11 / 6
2026-10-11	$27.78	$162,046,923,098	11 / 6
2026-10-12	$29.06	$162,046,923,098	11 / 6
2026-10-13	$28.99	$162,163,814,490	11 / 6
2026-10-14	$30.40	$163,656,039,586	11 / 6
2026-10-15	$30.64	$163,656,039,586	11 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	9	1
2026-06-01	12	8	1
2026-07-01	12	6	2
2026-08-01	12	6	2
2026-09-01	12	6	3
2026-10-01	12	7	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 14 · prior Sep 1

$335.00 → $345.00+3.0%

JefferiesOct 11 · prior Jul 9

$207.00 → $276.00+33.3%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 8 · prior May 27

$212.00 → $300.00+41.5%

Goldman SachsOct 1 · prior Jul 22

$235.00 → $274.00+16.6%

BMO CapitalSep 17

$310.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$189.75$379.50

4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Complete $2.4 billion capital budget in 2026Capital expenditures: $726M
Maintain or grow EPS near $17.9 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Manage earnings volatility from Hormuz disruptionsQualitative condition
Expand midstream capacity with Zeus and Coastal Bend projectsQualitative condition

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Phillips 66 outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment thesis is based on PSX's potential as a midstream growth player in the energy sector. The current state reflects a watchful approach due to weak recent performance and fragile earnings quality.

What's priced into Phillips 66

The market appears to price PSX as cheap compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap. However, the valuation reflects concerns about execution quality and sector turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on organic midstream growth, with recent financial performance indicating progress in this area. However, the overall earnings quality remains fragile, and recent results have been weak.

What Phillips 66 hinges on

Key factors include the potential for inflation to reaccelerate, which could benefit PSX, and the performance of sector peers like MPC and VLO. Additionally, any cuts to guidance would negatively impact sentiment.