Reading DINO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DINO free→Reading DINO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DINO free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, which adds to the risk, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from DINO and the performance of sector bellwethers like MPC, VLO, and PSX. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $66.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $67 DINO trades at 11× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $89 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $53–$81. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 22% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.51x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 38% of the time over the next year (vs 44% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.93 → $3.74 (+27.6% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 1 maintained. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.4% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$187.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$345.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,755.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the $0.50 dividend shows financial strength. A cut may worry investors about cash.
Confirms one read:HF Sinclair announces the continuation of the $0.50 dividend for the next quarter.
Confirms the other:HF Sinclair cuts or stops the quarterly dividend.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
New acting CFO may create uncertainty in management.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 13, 2026, HF Sinclair Corporation (the “ Company ”) terminated the employment of Mr. Atanas Atanasov as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Company, effective immediately. If Mr. Atanasov meets the conditions of the Company’s Severance Pay Plan, he will receive the severance benefits to which he is entitled thereunder…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$53.00 – $81.00 (median $69.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DINO HF Sinclair | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MPC Marathon Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VLO Valero Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PSX Phillips 66 | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | full | moderate |
PBF PBF Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | — | elevated |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=252).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
HF Sinclair agreed to repurchase 1,455,180 shares from REH Advisors as part of a capital allocation strategy.
HF Sinclair continues to maintain a regular quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share.
HF Sinclair aims to enhance operating income through strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Refining income is important for HF Sinclair's performance. Changes may show problems or market shifts.
Confirms one read:Refining income is over $514 million. This shows strong performance.
Confirms the other:Refining income is below $400 million. This may show possible weaknesses.
Why it matters: Refining margins affect profits. Changes can show if operations are strong or weak.
Confirms one read:Refining margins improve a lot. This shows strong demand and good pricing power.
Confirms the other:Refining margins go down. This suggests too much supply or weak demand.
Why it matters: Progress on the share buyback could signal management's confidence and improve stock value.
Confirms:The company bought back over 1 million shares.
Disproves:There are no updates on the share repurchase plan. This may show management issues.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost control and efficiency, which is key for growth.
Confirms:Q2 results show operating income growth compared to Q1.
Disproves:Q2 results show a decline in operating income compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Completing the buyback shows HF Sinclair's commitment to returning value to shareholders. This could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:HF Sinclair completes the repurchase of 1,455,180 shares from REH Advisors.
Disproves:The share repurchase is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: This report will show if HF Sinclair maintains its strong earnings trend or faces setbacks.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share is over $3.56. This shows strong performance.
Confirms the other:Earnings per share is below $1.20. This shows a big drop in profits.
Downgrade indicates potential valuation issues.
Concerns over valuation could impact investor confidence.
Insider selling may signal lack of confidence.
Margin pressure could impact operating income.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously reported on a Current Report on Form 8-K filed by HF Sinclair Corporation (the “ Company ”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “ SEC ”) on February 18, 2026, Mr. Timothy Go, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer and President, and a member of the Board of Directors of the Company (the “ Board ”), has been on a voluntary…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. HF Sinclair Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a Stock Purchase Agreement, dated May 18, 2026 (the “Stock Purchase Agreement”), with REH Advisors Inc. (the “Selling Stockholder” or “REH”) (now the parent company of REH Company, LLC (formerly known as The Sinclair Companies)), pursuant to which the Company agreed to repurchase from the Selling Stockholder 1,455,180 shares of the Company’s outstanding common stock, par value $0.01 per share (the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 1, 2026, HF Sinclair Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s first quarter 2026 results. The press release also announced a regular quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein in its entirety. The information contained in, or incorporated into, this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously announced in its Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 18, 2026, HF Sinclair Corporation (the “ Company ”) appointed Mr. Franklin Myers, age 73, as Chief Executive Officer and President of the Company on a temporary basis, effective as of February 17, 2026 (“ Acting CEO ”). In connect…