HF Sinclair (DINO)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$121.66-0.54%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge HF Sinclair’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+28.7% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.70 → 15.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	8.58B
EPS	—	5.828
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	35.15B
EPS	—	18.984
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	32.61B
EPS	—	15.057

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete share repurchase agreement with REH Advisors	Recent share buybacks show management commitment to capital return.	Improving	buyback agreement not completed by end 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Share repurchases totaled $138 million in 2025-Q4, $76 million in 2026-Q1, and $179 million in 2026-Q2. The company entered a Stock Purchase Agreement to repurchase 1,455,180 shares in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows active execution of the share repurchase program. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share	It maintains a steady quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share.	Intact	dividend cut below $0.50 per share next year	Dividend per share: $0.50 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.50 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.5 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bed0d25b-eed3-4063-a2af-1a2337ac52b5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves to at least $847 million in Q1 2026	The company improved operating income sharply to $847 million in Q1 2026 from $81 million a year ago.	Intact	operating income falls below $600 million next year	Operating income: $1.168B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $847 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 20261,168,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bed0d25b-eed3-4063-a2af-1a2337ac52b5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve at least 6% revenue growth	A primary condition in HF Sinclair's published investment case. The stated target is >= 6% YoY.	Intact	revenue growth falls below 4% YoY next year	Revenue growth: 53.15% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202653.154481 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bed0d25b-eed3-4063-a2af-1a2337ac52b5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$15.06

$8.14 → $15.06 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$32.61B

$30.32B → $32.61B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.14	$30,320,472,590	14 / 11
2026-07-25	$8.57	$30,320,472,590	14 / 11
2026-07-26	$8.10	$29,861,319,851	9 / 8
2026-07-27	$8.57	$30,320,472,590	14 / 11
2026-07-28	$8.57	$30,320,472,590	14 / 11
2026-07-29	$8.60	$30,000,419,850	15 / 10
2026-07-30	$9.06	$29,891,782,451	9 / 8
2026-07-31	$9.13	$29,891,782,451	9 / 8
2026-08-01	$9.13	$29,891,782,451	9 / 8
2026-08-02	$8.97	$30,365,682,450	15 / 10
2026-08-03	$8.97	$30,365,682,450	15 / 10
2026-08-04	$8.97	$30,365,682,450	15 / 10
2026-08-05	$8.97	$30,365,682,450	15 / 10
2026-08-06	$9.13	$29,891,782,451	9 / 8
2026-08-07	$9.16	$29,937,382,451	9 / 8
2026-08-08	$9.00	$30,629,782,450	15 / 10
2026-08-09	$9.00	$30,629,782,450	15 / 10
2026-08-10	$9.00	$30,629,782,450	15 / 10
2026-08-11	$9.16	$29,937,382,451	9 / 8
2026-08-12	$9.00	$30,629,782,450	15 / 10
2026-08-13	$9.00	$30,629,782,450	15 / 10
2026-08-14	$9.16	$29,937,382,451	9 / 8
2026-08-15	$9.16	$29,937,382,451	9 / 8
2026-08-16	$9.16	$29,937,382,451	9 / 8
2026-08-17	$9.16	$29,937,382,451	9 / 8
2026-08-18	$9.16	$29,937,382,451	9 / 8
2026-08-19	$9.16	$29,937,382,451	9 / 8
2026-08-20	$9.75	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-08-21	$9.75	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-08-22	$9.75	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-08-23	$9.75	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-08-24	$9.75	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-08-25	$9.75	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-08-26	$9.75	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-08-27	$9.75	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-08-28	$9.75	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-08-29	$9.75	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-08-30	$9.75	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-08-31	$9.75	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-09-01	$9.75	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-09-02	$10.01	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-09-03	$10.01	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-09-04	$10.01	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-09-05	$10.01	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-09-06	$10.01	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-09-07	$10.01	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-09-08	$10.01	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-09-09	$10.46	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-09-10	$10.46	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-09-11	$10.69	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-09-12	$10.69	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-09-13	$10.69	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-09-14	$10.69	$30,419,582,451	9 / 8
2026-09-15	$11.49	$30,747,852,538	9 / 8
2026-09-16	$11.70	$30,747,852,538	9 / 8
2026-09-17	$11.70	$30,747,852,538	9 / 8
2026-09-18	$11.70	$30,747,852,538	9 / 8
2026-09-19	$11.70	$30,747,852,538	9 / 8
2026-09-20	$11.70	$30,747,852,538	9 / 8
2026-09-21	$11.70	$30,747,852,538	9 / 8
2026-09-22	$11.70	$30,747,852,538	9 / 8
2026-09-23	$11.70	$30,747,852,538	9 / 8
2026-09-24	$11.70	$30,747,852,538	9 / 8
2026-09-25	$11.70	$30,747,852,538	9 / 8
2026-09-26	$11.70	$30,747,852,538	9 / 8
2026-09-27	$11.70	$30,747,852,538	9 / 8
2026-09-28	$11.70	$30,747,852,538	9 / 8
2026-09-29	$11.70	$30,747,852,538	9 / 8
2026-09-30	$11.70	$30,747,852,538	9 / 8
2026-10-01	$11.70	$30,747,852,538	9 / 8
2026-10-02	$11.70	$30,747,852,538	9 / 8
2026-10-03	$12.65	$31,558,552,538	9 / 8
2026-10-04	$12.67	$31,558,552,538	9 / 8
2026-10-05	$12.67	$31,558,552,538	9 / 8
2026-10-06	$13.63	$31,576,066,632	9 / 8
2026-10-07	$13.58	$31,576,066,632	9 / 8
2026-10-08	$13.63	$31,576,066,632	9 / 8
2026-10-09	$13.77	$31,541,866,632	9 / 8
2026-10-10	$14.14	$31,928,050,332	9 / 8
2026-10-11	$14.46	$31,928,050,332	9 / 8
2026-10-12	$14.46	$31,928,050,332	9 / 8
2026-10-13	$14.44	$31,928,050,332	9 / 8
2026-10-14	$14.44	$31,928,050,332	9 / 8
2026-10-15	$14.62	$31,929,750,332	9 / 8
2026-10-16	$14.62	$31,929,750,332	9 / 8
2026-10-17	$14.62	$31,929,750,332	9 / 8
2026-10-18	$14.62	$31,929,750,332	9 / 8
2026-10-19	$14.62	$31,929,750,332	9 / 8
2026-10-20	$15.01	$31,929,750,332	9 / 8
2026-10-21	$15.01	$32,119,750,332	9 / 8
2026-10-22	$15.01	$32,119,750,332	9 / 8
2026-10-23	$15.06	$32,368,870,332	9 / 8
2026-10-24	$15.06	$32,612,855,924	9 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	8	1
2026-06-01	6	9	1
2026-07-01	6	9	3
2026-08-01	6	8	3
2026-09-01	6	8	3
2026-10-01	6	8	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 14 · prior Sep 1

$93.00 → $135.00+45.2%

Goldman SachsOct 9 · prior Jul 29

$114.00 → $142.00+24.6%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 8 · prior Aug 4

$85.00 → $119.00+40.0%

UBSOct 3 · prior Sep 8

$126.00 → $133.00+5.6%

$0$78.10$156.20

4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Complete share repurchase agreement with REH AdvisorsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.50 per shareDividend per share: $0.50 per share
Operating income improves to at least $847 million in Q1 2026Operating income: $1.168B
Achieve at least 6% revenue growthRevenue growth: 53.15%

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

HF Sinclair outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical energy business, meaning results can shift with industry conditions, rather than a steady compounder. The multi-year view is intact: recent performance is strong, but earnings quality remains fragile and management execution has been uneven.

What's priced into HF Sinclair

DINO is described as cheap versus peers, and the current expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The valuation evidence has medium confidence, and the priced-in assessment says the current fragility is justified rather than signaling a broad mismatch between high valuation and weak execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results are strong, including an earnings beat, while the company has raised its quarterly dividend and continued repurchases. The growth and transformation effort is still early, and erratic earnings surprises, including a past deep miss, leave some execution risk despite a low estimated miss risk.

What HF Sinclair hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis is sensitive to guidance and to results from sector bellwethers MPC, VLO, and PSX. Continued strong results and higher guidance from those peers would support the sector tailwind; misses or lower guidance could weaken it, while a DINO guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.