HF Sinclair (DINO)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-09
$108.14-0.16%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
HF Sinclair is cheap with a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.35, well below peers at 24.07. The company improved operating income sharply to $847 million in Q1 2026 from $81 million a year ago. It maintains a steady quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share. Recent share buybacks show management commitment to capital return.
Leadership changes and insider selling create uncertainty. Margin pressure and a recent guidance cut challenge earnings growth. Analysts expect revenue growth of only 6%, and the stock faces sector headwinds.
The price sits about 4% below our fair value near $77, reflecting justified expectations for about 6% revenue growth. Our fair value aligns closely with the Street median, but recent guidance cuts and margin pressure may weigh on upside.
Breaks if: buyback agreement not completed by end 2026
Breaks if: dividend cut below $0.50 per share next year
operating income falls below $600 million next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. The current thesis is intact, driven by strong financial results and management's commitment to growth.
The valuation indicates that DINO is considered cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. The market seems to have priced in some fragility due to weak execution quality and a turbulent sector environment.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable in the near term, with a low probability of missing earnings expectations. However, the company's recent history shows erratic earnings surprises, which adds some risk.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for inflation to reaccelerate, the performance of sector bellwethers, and management's ability to maintain guidance without cuts. These elements will be crucial in determining future performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat strengthens the read on DINO. However, the spinoff may hinder growth and transformation efforts.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: revenue growth falls below 4% YoY next year
Overall, DINO appears to be in a solid position for the next 1-3 years, supported by strong management priorities and recent financial performance. Not investment advice.