Reading PBF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PBF free→Reading PBF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PBF free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so there is no earnings yield to read. If PBF cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $39.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.59x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 38% of the time over the next year (vs 44% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.73 → $4.22 (+54.6% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 8% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 25.5% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$222.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$613.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,488.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Paying off the 2028 notes shows the company is stable. It shows good money management.
Confirms:Successful completion of the redemption of $801.6 million of 2028 Notes by June 25, 2026.
Disproves:The company cannot pay off the 2028 Notes. They lack enough financing.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PBF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Closing of 7.250% Senior Notes Offering On May 28, 2026, PBF Holding Company LLC (“PBF Holding”), a subsidiary of PBF Energy Company LLC (“PBF LLC”), in turn a subsidiary of PBF Energy Inc. (“PBF Energy” and collectively with its consolidated subsidiaries including PBF LLC and PBF Holding, the “Company”) entered into an Indenture (the “Indenture”) among PBF Holding and PBF Holding’s wholly-owned subsidiary, PBF Finance Corporation (together with PBF…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PBF PBF Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | — | elevated |
MPC Marathon Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VLO Valero Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PSX Phillips 66 | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | full | moderate |
DINO HF Sinclair | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 45% for the rest of the cohort, n=249).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
PBF aims to achieve $350 million in run-rate cost improvements by the end of 2026 through its RBI program.
PBF targets renewable diesel production to average 15,000 to 16,000 barrels per day in Q2 2026.
PBF issued $500 million in senior notes to refinance existing debt and improve liquidity.
Focus on improving net income and operating income compared to previous quarters.
Why it matters: Closing this debt will change PBF's finances and capital setup.
Confirms one read:The $500 million senior unsecured notes offering will end on May 28, 2026.
Confirms the other:The offering does not close as planned or faces significant delays.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows a strong recovery from past losses.
Confirms:Q2 net income is over $198.3 million, showing more recovery.
Disproves:Net income drops below $198.3 million, showing a setback in recovery.
Why it matters: Earnings will show if changes help make more money.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings show a big rise in net income compared to Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings show continued losses. There is very little improvement.
Why it matters: Cost improvements matter for PBF's finances and competition. They can increase profits.
Confirms:PBF reports $350 million in cost improvements by December 2026.
Disproves:Cost improvements fall short of $350 million by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth could help PBF's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds back to previous highs, over 6%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays below 6%, showing it is still maturing.
Why it matters: Better net income shows improved efficiency and market conditions. This is key for investor trust.
Confirms:PBF reports net income improvement in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Net income declines or remains flat in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting the renewable diesel goal shows the company is efficient. It also shows market demand.
Confirms:Renewable diesel production is 15,000 to 16,000 barrels per day in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Production falls below 15,000 barrels per day in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Repairs at Chalmette are important. They help keep production and revenue steady.
Confirms:Chalmette refinery repairs completed by the end of Q3 2026.
Disproves:Repairs at Chalmette refinery extend beyond Q3 2026.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of the Registrant. The information required by
Other Events. On May 26, 2026, PBF Energy Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that its indirect subsidiary, PBF Holding Company LLC (“PBF Holding”) and PBF Holding’s wholly-owned subsidiary, PBF Finance Corporation, as co-issuers, priced a private offering to eligible purchasers of $500 million in aggregate principal amount of 7.25% senior unsecured notes due 2034 (the “Notes Offering”). The Notes Offering is expected to close on May 28, 2026, subject to customary closing c…
Other Events. Commencement of Notes Offering On May 26, 2026, the Company announced that PBF Holding and PBF Holding’s wholly-owned subsidiary, PBF Finance Corporation (“PBF Finance”), as co-issuers, intend to commence a private offering of $500.0 million in aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes due 2034 (the “Notes Offering”) to eligible purchasers. PBF Holding intends to use the net proceeds (after transaction fees and expenses) from the Notes Offering and available cash, to…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026 , PBF Energy Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company's financial and operating results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, which include the operating results of its consolidated indirect subsidiary, PBF Holding Company LLC. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Current Report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report is being “…