PBF Energy (PBF)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$76.17-3.89%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge PBF Energy’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	10.2B
EPS	—	8.044
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	40.8B
EPS	—	24.457
Capital expenditure	$825M–$875M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	37.8B
EPS	—	20.026

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage debt and buybacks prudently	Debt issuance supports capital needs and buybacks show management commitment.	Improving	Debt levels rise unsustainably or buybacks cease abruptly	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve $350M run-rate cost improvements	A primary condition in PBF Energy's published investment case. The stated target is >=350 million USD run-rate cost improvements.	Intact	cost improvements fall below $350 million run-rate by 2026-Q4	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reported the RBI program generated over $230 million in run-rate cost improvements in 2025 and expects to increase this to more than $350 million by year-end 2026. The trajectory is delivering with clear progress toward the $350 million target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve positive EPS near $8.43 in FY26	The company beat earnings with EPS of $1.65 in Q1 2026.	Improving	EPS falls below $8.43 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $7.54 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $8.43. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20267.54 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b8377a44-789a-416d-807f-eb32e00d93eb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 7% YoY	A primary condition in PBF Energy's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 56.23% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202656.225168 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b8377a44-789a-416d-807f-eb32e00d93eb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$7.74 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$37.80B

$33.25B → $37.80B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.74	$33,251,293,850	5 / 11
2026-07-25	$7.74	$33,830,092,850	5 / 11
2026-07-26	$7.74	$33,830,092,850	5 / 11
2026-07-27	$7.74	$33,830,092,850	5 / 11
2026-07-28	$7.74	$33,830,092,850	5 / 11
2026-07-29	$7.74	$33,830,092,850	5 / 11
2026-07-30	$8.29	$33,579,866,072	5 / 8
2026-07-31	$8.39	$33,860,820,119	5 / 11
2026-08-01	$8.91	$33,613,666,073	5 / 8
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$34,052,326,540	4 / 11
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$33,824,323,128	4 / 8
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$33,824,323,128	4 / 8
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$33,993,762,900	4 / 11
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$33,993,762,900	4 / 11
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$33,824,323,128	4 / 8
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$33,961,308,360	4 / 11
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$33,961,308,360	4 / 11
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$33,824,323,128	4 / 8
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$33,824,323,128	4 / 8
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$33,824,323,128	4 / 8
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$33,824,323,128	4 / 8
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$33,824,323,128	4 / 8
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$33,824,323,128	4 / 8
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$33,824,323,128	4 / 8
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$33,824,323,128	4 / 8
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$33,824,323,128	4 / 8
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$34,047,762,928	4 / 8
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$34,589,664,312	4 / 8
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$34,589,664,312	4 / 8
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$34,589,664,312	4 / 8
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$34,589,664,312	4 / 8
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$34,589,664,312	4 / 8
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$34,589,664,312	4 / 8
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$34,589,664,312	4 / 8
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$34,589,664,312	4 / 8
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$34,589,664,312	4 / 8
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$34,589,664,312	4 / 8
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$34,589,664,312	4 / 8
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$34,589,664,312	4 / 8
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$34,589,664,312	4 / 8
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$34,589,664,312	4 / 8
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$34,589,664,312	4 / 8
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$34,589,664,312	4 / 8
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$34,589,664,312	4 / 8
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$35,114,134,312	4 / 8
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$35,751,801,875	4 / 8
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$35,751,801,875	4 / 8
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$35,751,801,875	4 / 8
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$35,751,801,875	4 / 8
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$36,347,120,155	4 / 8
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$36,347,120,155	4 / 8
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$36,416,620,155	4 / 8
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$36,416,620,155	4 / 8
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$36,886,469,355	4 / 8
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$36,886,469,355	4 / 8
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$36,886,469,355	4 / 8
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$36,886,469,355	4 / 8
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$36,886,469,355	4 / 8
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$36,886,469,355	4 / 8
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$36,886,469,355	4 / 8
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$36,886,469,355	4 / 8
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$36,886,469,355	4 / 8
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$37,274,569,355	4 / 8
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$37,512,569,355	4 / 8
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$37,512,569,355	4 / 8
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$37,798,199,355	4 / 8
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$37,798,199,355	4 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	8	4
2026-06-01	1	8	4
2026-07-01	1	10	4
2026-08-01	1	10	4
2026-09-01	1	9	4
2026-10-01	1	9	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 9 · prior Aug 18

$81.00 → $91.00+12.3%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 8 · prior Aug 4

$65.00 → $89.00+36.9%

UBSOct 5 · prior Aug 4

$84.00 → $99.00+17.9%

$0$54.45$108.90

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage debt and buybacks prudentlyQualitative condition
Achieve $350M run-rate cost improvementsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve positive EPS near $8.43 in FY26Diluted EPS: $7.54 per share
Sustain revenue growth near 7% YoYRevenue growth: 56.23%

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

PBF Energy outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PBF is a cyclical energy company, meaning results can shift with conditions in its sector. The multi-year view is intact: recent financial performance is in the top half of its industry, though earnings quality remains loss-making and management execution has been volatile.

What's priced into PBF Energy

The valuation evidence describes PBF as cheap versus peers, with the market’s expectations modestly below the model’s view. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, though the sector remains turbulent.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term, results could remain uneven: earnings surprises have been erratic and are trending down, despite a low estimated miss risk. Management has reported more than $230 million in run-rate cost improvements in 2025 and expects more than $350 million by year-end 2026; Martinez restarted as planned, while 2026 capital spending guidance rose to $825 million to $875 million after an update to turnaround timing.

What PBF Energy hinges on

The next guidance update is a key near-term swing factor, since a cut would be a meaningful negative. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on progress toward the cost-improvement goal and on sector bellwethers such as MPC, VLO, and PSX continuing to report strong results and guidance.