Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-09
$83.13+1.28%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Par Pacific is cheap with a PE of 6.5, well below peers at 24. Revenue growth is expected around 1%. The company issued $500 million in senior notes to manage debt. Net income showed some improvement despite recent misses.
Earnings missed recently and net income fell sharply from $369 million in 2025 to $54 million in Q1 2026. Crack spread concerns threaten revenue. Debt issuance raises financial risk.
The price is about 28% below our fair value near $85. Analysts expect about 1% revenue growth. Our fair value is 14% above the Street median, reflecting some optimism on recovery.
Breaks if: Failure to maintain or refinance debt obligations
Breaks if: Facility not operational by end of 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround play in the energy sector. The current thesis state reflects a mix of strong recent financial performance and ongoing challenges, including management execution and sector volatility.
The market currently prices PARR as cheap compared to its peers, indicating a divergence in expectations. However, there is a fragility in earnings quality due to weak execution and a turbulent sector backdrop.
PARR's fundamentals show a strong trajectory in profitability, with significant increases in net and operating income. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, and recent erratic surprises could pose risks.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential reacceleration of inflation, guidance updates from management, and performance from sector bellwethers. These elements will significantly influence PARR's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'favorable' to 'mild_favorable'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. The sale of Laramie Energy assets improves the capital structure and supports growth objectives. This change reinforces the financial position of the company.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Complete and operate the Hawaii Renewable Fuels Facility to produce renewable fuels.
Breaks if: net income falls below $50 million in any quarter
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 0.8% YoY
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PARR's performance will depend on its ability to manage risks while capitalizing on sector trends. Not investment advice.