Valero Energy (VLO)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-10-15

$444.71+0.15%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Valero Energy’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+21.1% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

38.14 → 46.20 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain capital investments near $448 million per quarter	Capital investments remain steady, with $448 million spent in Q1 2026.	Improving	quarterly capital investments fall below $400 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase quarterly cash dividend by at least 6%	The company raised its dividend by 6%, showing strong cash returns to shareholders.	Intact	no dividend increase or cut within next year	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management increased the quarterly cash dividend from $1.13 per share in early 2025 to $1.20 per share in 2026, maintaining this level through Q2 2026. The dividend increases align with management's commitment to stockholder returns and strong financial position. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Complete St. Charles FCC Unit optimization by Q3 2026	It plans to complete a refinery upgrade by Q3 2026 to boost valuable product output.	Intact	FCC Unit optimization not completed by Q3 2026	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management consistently reaffirmed the $230 million St. Charles FCC Unit optimization project with expected completion and start of operations in Q3 2026. The project remains on track with no reported delays, indicating delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Manage refining costs amid California carbon rule changes	A primary condition in Valero Energy's published investment case. The stated target is Refining costs stable or growing less than 5% annually.	Intact	Refining costs rise more than 5% due to regulation	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$46.20

$24.22 → $46.20 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$144.59B

$124.47B → $144.59B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$24.22	$124,467,178,730	17 / 11
2026-07-25	$24.88	$124,467,178,730	18 / 11
2026-07-26	$24.88	$124,467,178,730	18 / 11
2026-07-27	$24.88	$124,467,178,730	18 / 11
2026-07-28	$24.88	$124,467,178,730	18 / 11
2026-07-29	$25.12	$124,467,178,730	18 / 11
2026-07-30	$25.12	$124,467,178,730	18 / 11
2026-07-31	$25.21	$123,171,201,220	18 / 11
2026-08-01	$26.06	$125,407,220,658	12 / 9
2026-08-02	$26.67	$126,534,720,658	11 / 9
2026-08-03	$27.35	$124,212,946,090	18 / 11
2026-08-04	$27.35	$124,212,946,090	18 / 11
2026-08-05	$26.67	$126,534,720,658	11 / 9
2026-08-06	$27.82	$124,849,735,450	18 / 11
2026-08-08	$26.67	$126,534,720,658	11 / 9
2026-08-09	$27.72	$126,273,174,160	19 / 12
2026-08-10	$27.72	$126,273,174,160	19 / 12
2026-08-12	$26.67	$126,534,720,658	11 / 9
2026-08-13	$26.67	$126,534,720,658	11 / 9
2026-08-14	$26.67	$126,534,720,658	11 / 9
2026-08-15	$26.67	$126,534,720,658	11 / 9
2026-08-16	$26.67	$126,534,720,658	12 / 10
2026-08-17	$26.67	$126,534,720,658	12 / 10
2026-08-18	$26.67	$126,534,720,658	12 / 10
2026-08-19	$26.67	$126,534,720,658	12 / 10
2026-08-20	$29.28	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-08-21	$29.28	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-08-22	$29.28	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-08-23	$29.28	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-08-24	$29.28	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-08-25	$30.52	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-08-26	$30.64	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-08-27	$30.64	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-08-28	$30.64	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-08-29	$30.64	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-08-30	$30.64	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-08-31	$30.64	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-09-01	$30.64	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-09-02	$30.43	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-09-03	$30.43	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-09-04	$31.21	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-09-05	$31.21	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-09-06	$31.21	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-09-07	$31.21	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-09-08	$33.25	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-09-09	$33.25	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-09-10	$34.21	$128,726,088,958	12 / 10
2026-09-11	$34.21	$128,726,088,958	11 / 10
2026-09-12	$35.60	$128,726,088,958	11 / 10
2026-09-13	$35.60	$128,726,088,958	11 / 10
2026-09-14	$35.60	$128,726,088,958	11 / 10
2026-09-15	$38.14	$131,576,881,465	11 / 10
2026-09-16	$38.14	$131,576,881,465	11 / 10
2026-09-17	$38.14	$131,576,881,465	11 / 10
2026-09-18	$38.14	$131,576,881,465	11 / 10
2026-09-19	$38.14	$131,576,881,465	11 / 10
2026-09-20	$38.14	$131,576,881,465	11 / 10
2026-09-21	$38.14	$131,576,881,465	11 / 10
2026-09-22	$38.14	$131,576,881,465	11 / 10
2026-09-23	$38.33	$131,576,881,465	11 / 9
2026-09-24	$42.01	$132,528,253,066	10 / 9
2026-09-25	$42.01	$132,528,253,066	10 / 9
2026-09-26	$42.01	$132,528,253,066	10 / 9
2026-09-27	$42.01	$132,528,253,066	10 / 9
2026-09-28	$42.01	$132,528,253,066	10 / 9
2026-09-29	$42.01	$132,528,253,066	10 / 9
2026-09-30	$42.01	$132,528,253,066	10 / 9
2026-10-01	$42.01	$132,528,253,066	10 / 9
2026-10-02	$42.01	$132,528,253,066	10 / 9
2026-10-03	$43.11	$134,291,993,066	10 / 9
2026-10-04	$44.05	$136,191,893,065	10 / 9
2026-10-05	$44.82	$136,191,893,065	10 / 9
2026-10-06	$44.82	$136,191,893,065	10 / 9
2026-10-07	$45.32	$136,191,893,065	10 / 9
2026-10-08	$45.25	$136,195,293,066	10 / 9
2026-10-09	$46.24	$136,196,401,785	10 / 9
2026-10-10	$44.07	$137,183,701,785	11 / 10
2026-10-11	$44.07	$137,183,701,785	11 / 10
2026-10-12	$44.07	$137,183,701,785	11 / 10
2026-10-13	$44.07	$137,183,701,785	11 / 10
2026-10-14	$45.56	$144,590,749,262	12 / 10
2026-10-15	$46.20	$144,590,749,262	12 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	7	3
2026-06-01	10	7	3
2026-07-01	10	7	3
2026-08-01	10	8	3
2026-09-01	10	9	3
2026-10-01	9	9	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades8 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 9 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 14 · prior Sep 1

$389.00 → $485.00+24.7%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 8 · prior Aug 4

$300.00 → $434.00+44.7%

JefferiesOct 8 · prior Sep 21

$401.00 → $394.00-1.7%

UBSOct 6 · prior Sep 8

$450.00 → $467.00+3.8%

BarclaysOct 6 · prior Jul 31

$323.00 → $441.00+36.5%

Goldman SachsSep 23 · prior Jul 22

$357.00 → $457.00+28.0%

$0$266.75$533.50

5 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain capital investments near $448 million per quarterDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Increase quarterly cash dividend by at least 6%Required source inputs unavailable
Complete St. Charles FCC Unit optimization by Q3 2026Qualitative condition
Manage refining costs amid California carbon rule changesDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-12.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Valero Energy outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable energy company with a multi-year view focused on maintaining disciplined capital investments and increasing dividends. The current thesis state is supported by strong recent financial performance, although there are some mixed signals regarding management execution.

What's priced into Valero Energy

The market currently prices VLO as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap. However, there is some fragility due to weak execution quality and a turbulent sector environment.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, given the recent earnings beats and management's commitment to maintaining dividends. There is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, but recent industry trends could pose risks.

What Valero Energy hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including inflation trends and the performance of sector peers. A potential cut in guidance would negatively impact sentiment, while continued earnings strength from industry leaders could bolster VLO's position.