Reading VAL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VAL free→Reading VAL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VAL free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 39% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If VAL cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $86.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $87 VAL trades at 6× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $142 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 39% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.47x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 38% of the time over the next year (vs 44% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.26 → $0.34 (+30.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$215.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$486.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,358.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows Valaris is managing costs better. This is important for profits.
Confirms:Q2 operating income is over $20 million, up from last year.
Disproves:Operating income drops below $20 million or falls compared to last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VAL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. 2
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Energy (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VAL Valaris | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
FTI TechnipFMC | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
PR Permian Resources | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
OVV Ovintiv | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
VNOM Viper Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Energy names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 45% for the rest of the cohort, n=249).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Valaris is pursuing a business combination with Transocean to enhance strategic positioning.
Valaris aims to improve operating income through enhanced operational efficiency.
Valaris aims to achieve its revenue guidance of $2,125 - $2,205 million for FY 2026.
Not yet measured, building a track record across disclosures.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Valaris meets its revenue guidance. This is crucial for future outlook.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue meeting or exceeding guidance.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue falling short of guidance.
Why it matters: High revenue efficiency shows good performance. It can help future earnings grow.
Confirms:Q2 revenue efficiency was 96% or higher.
Disproves:Q2 revenue efficiency falls below 96%.
Why it matters: This merger could create significant synergies and enhance Valaris's market position. Investors are keen on how this affects future growth.
Confirms:They announced the merger with Transocean is complete.
Disproves:There is a delay or cancellation of the merger with Transocean.
Why it matters: Growth trends in the sector can affect Valaris's performance and market position.
Confirms one read:Energy sector revenue growth picks up to above 6% year over year.
Confirms the other:Energy sector revenue growth drops below 3% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Idle drillships coming back can increase revenue and efficiency. This helps financial health.
Confirms:They announced specific drillships are going back to work as planned.
Disproves:There are more delays in getting idle drillships back to work.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong demand. This can help boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Total backlog is over $5 billion.
Disproves:Total backlog is below $4.9 billion.
Other Events. As previously announced, on February 9, 2026, Valaris Limited , an exempted company limited by shares incorporated under the laws of Bermuda (“ Valaris ”), and Transocean Ltd., a Swiss corporation (“ Transocean ”), entered into a Business Combination Agreement (the “ Agreement ”). The Agreement provides that, among other things and upon the terms and subject to the conditions thereof, Transocean will acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Valaris (the “ Valar…
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. 2
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Business Combination Agreement On February 9, 2026, Valaris Limited, an exempted company limited by shares incorporated under the laws of Bermuda (“ Valaris ”) and Transocean Ltd., a Swiss corporation (“ Transocean ”) (Transocean and Valaris, collectively, the “ Parties ” and each, a “ Party ”), entered into a Business Combination Agreement (the “ Agreement ”) providing for the combination of the two Parties (the “ Business Combination ”). Pursuant t…
Other Events. On February 9, 2026, Valaris Limited , an exempted company limited by shares incorporated under the laws of Bermuda (“ Valaris ”) and Transocean Ltd., a Swiss corporation (“ Transocean ”) (Valaris and Transocean, collectively, the “ Parties ” and each, a “ Party ”), issued a joint press release announcing the entry into a Business Combination Agreement (the “ Agreement ”), dated as of February 9, 2026, between the Parties, providing for the combination of the two Parties (the “…