Reading TKNO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TKNO free→Reading TKNO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TKNO free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, while compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.13 TKNO trades at 5× p/s — 2.2× the 3× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $4.33 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 5% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.46x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $-0.07. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$309.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$711.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,876.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A return to faster revenue growth would signal a positive shift in company momentum. This could improve investor confidence.
Confirms:Revenue growth re-accelerates back toward its previous highs of near 10%.
Disproves:Revenue growth is slowing down or remains below current levels.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TKNO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 27, 2026, Irene Davis, a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Alpha Teknova, Inc. (the “Company”) and a member of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, notified the Company of her intention not to stand for re-election to the Board at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Meeting”) and to retire fr…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TKNO Alpha Teknova, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | fair | high |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | low |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve a revenue range of $42-44 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $9.98M in 2025-Q4 to $11.08M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the $42-44M annual target. The trajectory shows delivering growth, aligning with management's guidance reiteration.
“We therefore reiterate our 2026 revenue guidance of $42-44 million.”
“Based on our revenue guidance of $42-44 million.”
Management aims to keep the free cash outflow under $10 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was -$3.36M in 2026-Q1, indicating a need for continued focus to maintain the annual free cash outflow below $10M. The trajectory shows limited progress towards this target.
Management is focused on improving gross profit margins over time.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross profit increased from $3.24M in 2025-Q4 to $3.78M in 2026-Q1, showing progress in improving margins. The trajectory indicates delivering on this priority.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Alpha Teknova, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including the Press Release, is intended to be furnished under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including the Press Release, is intended to be furnished under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 6, 2025, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including the Press Release, is intended to be furnished under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 7, 2025, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including the Press Release, is intended to be furnished under
“Continue to anticipate full-year Free Cash Outflow of less than $10 million.”
“We anticipate full-year Free Cash Outflow of less than $10 million in 2026.”
“Gross profit increased to $3.78 million in 2026-Q1.”
“Gross profit was $3.24 million in 2025-Q4.”