Alpha Teknova, Inc. (TKNO)

NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-10-23

$6.42+4.39%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Alpha Teknova, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	11.03M
EPS	—	-0.085
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$45M–$47M	46.01M
EPS	—	-0.301
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	52.68M
EPS	—	-0.259

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Generate positive free cash flow near $10 million	Management reaffirmed a positive free cash flow outlook near $10 million.	Broken	free cash flow remains negative or below $5 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $-596,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: FCF >= $10 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026-596,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve gross profit margins	Gross profit rose from $3.24M to $3.78M in recent quarters, showing margin improvement.	Improving	gross profit falls below $3.2 million per quarter	Gross profit: $4.885M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: gross profit increases to at least $3.78 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20264,885,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d76bf3be-8b70-417e-948c-8c250fd91b6b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve 2026 revenue of $42-44 million	A primary condition in Alpha Teknova, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $42 million.	Intact	annual revenue falls below $40 million in FY26	Revenue: $12.185M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $42 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202612,185,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d76bf3be-8b70-417e-948c-8c250fd91b6b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 2 supplied transcript quarters. Revenue increased from $11.077 million in 2026-Q1 to $12.185 million in 2026-Q2, and management raised 2026 revenue guidance from $42-44 million to $45-47 million. The revenue trajectory is delivering against the stated growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$0.05B

Unavailable → $0.05B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$50,283,830	2 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$50,283,830	2 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$50,283,830	2 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$50,283,830	2 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$50,283,830	2 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$50,283,830	2 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$50,283,830	2 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$50,283,830	2 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$51,748,143	3 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$51,606,170	2 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$51,748,143	3 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$51,828,430	1 / 7
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$51,748,143	3 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$51,748,143	3 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$51,748,143	3 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$51,748,143	2 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$51,748,143	2 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$51,748,143	2 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$51,748,143	2 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$52,328,400	3 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$52,449,850	3 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$52,674,850	3 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$52,674,850	3 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$52,674,850	3 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$52,674,850	3 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$52,674,850	3 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$52,674,850	3 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$52,674,850	3 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$52,674,850	3 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$52,674,850	3 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$52,674,850	3 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$52,679,600	3 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	2
2026-06-01	4	2
2026-07-01	4	2
2026-08-01	6	2
2026-09-01	7	1
2026-10-01	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Generate positive free cash flow near $10 millionPublished status: Broken
Improve gross profit marginsGross profit: $4.885M
Achieve 2026 revenue of $42-44 millionRevenue: $12.185M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-65.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Alpha Teknova, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

TKNO is a higher-risk growth business, not a proven durable compounder: it is loss-making, but recent revenue growth and a 2026 guidance increase support the growth case. The multi-year view is intact, though evidence on sustained profitability and new product adoption remains limited.

What's priced into Alpha Teknova, Inc.

The valuation model labels expectations as justified, with no stated fragility signals, but the shares carry a 3.24 premium versus peers and the model has low confidence. The negative expectations gap suggests the setup may allow room for execution to differ from assumptions, but the evidence does not specify exactly what growth the market expects.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue has risen from the first to the second quarter of 2026, and management raised its full-year revenue guidance to $45-47 million. The cash outlook also improved, with expected full-year free cash outflow reduced to less than $8 million, though first-half outflow already accounts for a material share of that limit. Loss-making results and elevated risk remain important, while usage and customer adoption of the Build-Tek configurator are not yet evidenced.

What Alpha Teknova, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on TKNO delivering its higher revenue guidance while keeping cash outflow within the revised limit. A reversal of the recent guidance increase would damage confidence, while continued weakness in jobs data could pressure cyclical healthcare names. Strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.