Reading TIPT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TIPT free→Reading TIPT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TIPT free→NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up profits. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, TIPT trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 46% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $17.66. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $18 TIPT trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 11× p/e peer median. Our $35 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 49% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.32x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$84.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$366.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,786.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could affect Tiptree's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth drops below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above 15% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TIPT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. As disclosed in the Current Report on Form 8-K filed by Tiptree with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “ SEC ”) on September 26, 2025 (the “ September 26 Current Report ”), on September 26, 2025, Tiptree entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (as amended, the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Purchaser, and Fortegra. DB Insurance North America Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Purchaser (“ Merge…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TIPT Tiptree, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 11 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CB Chubb Limited | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on completing the acquisition of Fortegra to enhance business capabilities.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The acquisition of Fortegra was completed on May 29, 2026, as announced in the press release. This strategic move is expected to enhance Tiptree's business capabilities. The completion of this acquisition indicates delivering on the stated priority.
“Tiptree announced the completion of the acquisition of Fortegra.”
“Tiptree entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger with Fortegra.”
Continue to provide a consistent dividend of $0.06 per share to shareholders.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The dividend per share has been consistently maintained at $0.06 from 2024-Q3 to 2026-Q1. This reflects a stable capital allocation strategy, delivering on the commitment to provide consistent returns to shareholders.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. In connection with the closing of the Merger (as defined in
Other Events. On May 29, 2026, Tiptree issued a press release announcing the Closing of the Merger. A copy of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report and is incorporated herein by reference.
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On the Closing Date, in connection with the Merger, Tiptree Holdings LLC (“ Tiptree Holdings ”), a subsidiary of Tiptree, repaid in full all outstanding obligations under the Credit Agreement, dated as of February 7, 2025 (the “ Fortress Credit Agreement ”), by and among Tiptree, as parent, Tiptree Holdings, the lenders party thereto and Fortress Credit Corp., as administrative agent and collateral agent. After giving effect to such repayment, a…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On May 1, 2026, Tiptree Inc. (“Tiptree”) and Reliance Holdings LLC (“Holdings”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Tiptree, as sellers (the “Sellers”) completed the sale (the “Sale”) of all of the issued and outstanding membership interests of Reliance First Capital LLC (“Reliance”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Holdings to Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC, as buyer (the “Buyer”) pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, dated October 31, 2025 as amen…
“The board declared a cash dividend of $0.06 per share.”
“The board declared a cash dividend of $0.06 per share.”
“The board declared a cash dividend of $0.06 per share.”
“The board declared a cash dividend of $0.06 per share.”