Reading SW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $44.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $45 SW trades at 26× p/e, in line with its 25× p/e peer median. Our $56 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $50–$61. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 21% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 8.84x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.55 → $0.47 (-14.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 7 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 40.0% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$191.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$402.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,135.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose. The sector backdrop fell. Risk remained elevated.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding the guidance shows Smurfit Westrock is on track for growth. It would signal recovery from recent earnings misses.
Confirms:Q2 Adjusted EBITDA lands between $1.1 billion and $1.2 billion as guided.
Disproves:Q2 Adjusted EBITDA is below $1.1 billion. This shows ongoing challenges.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
by reference. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” hereunder for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filings.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$50.00 – $61.00 (median $54.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-21
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SW Smurfit Westrock | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | fair | elevated |
PKG Packaging Corporation of America | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | moderate |
IP International Paper | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AMCR Amcor | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
AVY Avery Dennison | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving the Adjusted EBITDA target range of $5.0 billion to $5.3 billion for the fiscal year.
Leverage the North American market as the largest value creation opportunity with improved demand and pricing.
Maintain capital expenditure within the $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion range for 2026.
Focus on meeting the quarterly EBITDA targets as guided.
Why it matters: The outcome of the LSE review could impact investor confidence and stock liquidity. A delisting could signal deeper issues.
Confirms:Management confirms they will continue on the LSE with good updates.
Disproves:Management says they will delist from the LSE.
Why it matters: The materials sector is facing headwinds. GDP changes can affect overall demand.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is revised up. This shows stronger economic activity.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is revised down. This shows weaker economic conditions.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost management and pricing power. This can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Net income margin improves from 0.8% in Q1 to above 1.0% in Q2.
Disproves:Net income margin stays at or below 0.8% in Q2.
Why it matters: Managing capital spending is important. Changes can impact future growth.
Confirms one read:Management announces they will spend less on capital in the next quarters.
Confirms the other:Management raises their capital spending plans a lot for the next quarters.
Why it matters: Price increases will affect margins and revenue growth in the second half of the year.
Confirms:Containerboard prices increase by more than $30 per ton in the second half.
Disproves:Containerboard prices do not increase or decline in the second half.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 25, 2026, Terrell K. Crews and Lourdes Melgar, members of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Smurfit Westrock plc (the “Company”), notified the Company that they will be stepping down from the Board, effective as of the conclusion of the Company’s 2026 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, which is currently scheduled for May 1,…
by reference. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” hereunder for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filings.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On November 21, 2025, Smurfit Westrock Financing Designated Activity Company (“SWF”), a designated activity company incorporated under the laws of Ireland and a wholly-owned direct subsidiary of Smurfit Westrock plc (“Smurfit Westrock”), a public limited company incorporated under the laws of Ireland, issued $800 million in aggregate principal amount of 5.185% senior notes due 20…
by reference. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” hereunder for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filings.