Smurfit Westrock (SW)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-10-29
$42.53+5.45%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put SW beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Deliver adjusted EBITDA near $5.15 billion in fiscal 2026: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 31% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskSW’s case rests on a durable packaging franchise and expanding its North American market. Revenue growth was low in Q1 and Q2 FY2026; Q3 earnings missed. Q3 non-GAAP EPS was $0.45, missing consensus, after earlier quarterly misses. SW trades at 30× P/E versus 17× for peers and 27× historically. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, despite repeated earnings misses. The risk is EBITDA delivery: our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 50%. The primary fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA comparison needs review, so the pressure is unverified. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. SW is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 17 analysts currently covering SW (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for SW in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare SW with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SW Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put SW next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Deliver Adjusted EBITDA guidance
Cost pressures despite pricing gains threaten EBITDA delivery and indicate margin headwinds.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $42.53
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $42.53.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Deliver Adjusted EBITDA guidance
A quarterly profit miss is a meaningful setback to EBITDA delivery and weighs on confidence.
Threatens: Deliver Adjusted EBITDA guidance
EPS and revenue misses signal pressure on earnings delivery, though the headline alone does not establish a thesis break.
Threatens: Optimize asset base and reduce high-cost capacity
Increased debt may hinder cost optimization efforts.
Threatens: Optimize asset base and reduce high-cost capacity
Redundancies may hinder cost optimization efforts.
Advances: Expand North American market
Acquisition expands North American market presence significantly.
Advances: Expand North American market
Acquisition expands North American market presence significantly.
Delisting impacts market access and growth potential.
