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Smurfit Westrock (SW)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$44.05-1.03%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's performance. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Packaging & Containers
- Market cap
- $22.72B
- Employees
- 97,000
- IPO date
- 2024-06-07
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $44.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$56.10consensus
Range $42.11 – $100.10
vs price: -21% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$143.94consensus
Range $137.65 – $158.88
vs price: -69% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $45 SW trades at 26× p/e, in line with its 25× p/e peer median. Our $56 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $50–$61. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
26.2x
peer 25.3x · own history 24.2x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
-21%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$56.49
range $42.13 – $98.42
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fair12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 21% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
25.9xP/E · peer median 25.3x
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
74th pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 8.84x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
92nd pctl · Materials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -14.3% / 30d, n=8for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.55 → $0.47 (-14.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 7 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 40.0% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: materials is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$191.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$402.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,135.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Valuation rose. The sector backdrop fell. Risk remained elevated.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for news on Q2 Adjusted EBITDA guidance.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding the guidance shows Smurfit Westrock is on track for growth. It would signal recovery from recent earnings misses.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 Adjusted EBITDA lands between $1.1 billion and $1.2 billion as guided.
Disproves:Q2 Adjusted EBITDA is below $1.1 billion. This shows ongoing challenges.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SW yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Materials sector revenue growth turning positive
- Watch for trends in unemployment claims impacting demand
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Downside triggers
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-301mo agoItem 2.02
by reference. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” hereunder for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filings.
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.