Reading PKG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PKG free→Reading PKG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PKG free→NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's track record is neutral, and the capital stance is unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, PKG is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. If PKG cuts guidance on the next call, that could be negative.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $229.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $230 PKG trades at 23× p/e, below its 25× p/e peer median. Our $230 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $232–$267. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 0% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.09x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.35 → $2.35 (+0.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 8 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.6% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$264.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,721.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'low' to 'moderate'.
Risk changed. The risk label rose from low to moderate. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Recent performance and earnings quality are neutral.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If EPS guidance is met or exceeded, it shows strong performance in Packaging.
Confirms:Q2 earnings reported at or above $2.33 per share, excluding special items.
Disproves:Q2 earnings were below $2.33 per share, not counting special items.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PKG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including the exhibit described below, shall not be deemed “filed” hereunder for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Exchange Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. On April 22, 2026, Packaging C…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$232.00 – $267.00 (median $253.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-28
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PKG Packaging Corporation of America | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SW Smurfit Westrock | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 16 of 100 | fair | elevated |
IP International Paper | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | fair | elevated |
AMCR Amcor | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
AVY Avery Dennison | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 75% of the last 8 guided quarters · 3.1% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to meet or exceed EPS guidance as a key financial target.
Maintain stable operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Ensure strong cash flow from operations to support business activities and investments.
Why it matters: Higher prices can boost profits in the Paper segment.
Confirms:Raising paper prices improves margins in Q2.
Disproves:Margins in the Paper segment decline or stay flat despite price increases.
Why it matters: Better cash flow supports investments and dividends. It shows financial health.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations is better than last quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations is worse than last quarter.
Why it matters: Higher maintenance costs can hurt profits and reduce production.
Confirms:Maintenance costs rise a lot in Q2 compared to Q1.
Disproves:Maintenance costs stay the same or drop in Q2.
Why it matters: Shipment trends show demand and how well the company operates.
Confirms one read:Shipments of corrugated products are up year over year, showing strong demand.
Confirms the other:Shipments of corrugated products are down year over year, showing weak demand.
Why it matters: Stable operating income shows effective cost management. It is key for long-term growth.
Confirms:Operating income in Q2 stays flat or grows compared to Q1.
Disproves:Operating income is lower than in Q1.
Why it matters: Sector growth impacts demand for packaging. It can affect revenue and margins.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth picks up above 1% in the next quarter.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth is now below 1%.
Why it matters: EPS guidance shows confidence in earnings. It helps calm investors.
Confirms:Management says EPS guidance is the same during the Q2 earnings call.
Disproves:EPS guidance is lowered or revised downward in the Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: Strong production helps revenue grow. It shows the company is working well.
Confirms:Containerboard production remains at or above 1,398,000 tons in Q2.
Disproves:Containerboard production falls below 1,398,000 tons in Q2.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On February 25, 2026, Paul T. Stecko informed the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Packaging Corporation of America (“PCA”) that he has decided to retire from service on the Board and will not stand for reelection to the Board at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”). Mr. Stecko’s decision to retire from the Board is…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including the exhibit described below, shall not be deemed “filed” hereunder for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Exchange Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. On January 27, 2026, Packaging…
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On December 3, 2025, Packaging Corporation of America (the “Company”) approved and announced a plan to permanently shut down the No. 2 paper machine and kraft pulping facilities at its Wallula, Washington containerboard mill. The Company will continue to operate the No. 3 paper machine and recycled pulping facilities at the mill. These actions are expected to be completed by the end of the first quarter of 2026. The Company estimates that the…
Material Impairments. The disclosure included under