NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Maintain operating income near or above $251.3M in 2026-Q1: EPS 2.35 vs 2.33 target; Q3 guide 2.91.
Packaging Corp grows revenue about 9% yearly. EPS guidance for 2026-Q2 is $2.33 per share. Operating income rose to $251.3M in 2026-Q1. Cash from operations remains strong at $329.3M despite some decline.
EPS guidance is soft at $2.33 for 2026-Q2. Cash from operations dropped $117M from prior quarter. The sector faces headwinds that could pressure margins and growth.
The price is about 12% above our fair value near $207. Analysts expect 9% revenue growth. Our fair value is 18% below the Street median, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
Breaks if: Cash from operations falls below $329M in any quarter
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.33 per share in 2026-Q2
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a durable compounder with a focus on maintaining earnings per share (EPS) guidance and integrating recent acquisitions. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance.
The market seems to have priced in a justified valuation, reflecting a low expectations gap. PKG trades at a premium compared to peers, indicating that investors expect stable performance.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management is on track with EPS guidance and operational improvements from the Greif acquisition. However, there is a moderate risk due to past performance and recent misses.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain EPS guidance and the impact of inflation on the Materials sector. Additionally, performance from sector leaders could influence PKG's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports maintaining EPS guidance. However, cost pressures could impact operating income stability.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Continue to meet or exceed EPS guidance as a key financial target.
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $168.5M (2025-Q4 level) in any quarter
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PKG appears to have a solid foundation but faces challenges from market conditions and management execution. Not investment advice.
