Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)

NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-10-15

$236.00+1.47%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Packaging Corporation of America’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+3.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.58 → 14.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Sustain cash from operations near $329.3M per quarter	Cash from operations remains strong at $329.3M despite some decline.	Intact	Cash from operations falls below $329M in any quarter	Cash from operations: $376M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=329 million USD per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026376,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Meet or exceed EPS guidance of $2.33 per share for 2026-Q2	EPS guidance for 2026-Q2 is $2.33 per share.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $2.33 per share in 2026-Q2	Diluted EPS: $2.15 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.33 USD per share. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 7, 20262.15 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 495fdc78-121b-48a4-9d89-c131e081320c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain operating income near or above $251.3M in 2026-Q1	Operating income rose to $251.3M in 2026-Q1.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls below $168.5M (2025-Q4 level) in any quarter	Operating income: $291.2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=251.3 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026291,200,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 495fdc78-121b-48a4-9d89-c131e081320c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue growth near 9% annually	A primary condition in Packaging Corporation of America's published investment case. The stated target is >=9% YoY.	Improving	Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$14.11

$12.62 → $14.11 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$10.93B

$10.62B → $10.93B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$12.62	$10,624,351,700	9 / 10
2026-07-25	$12.58	$10,616,344,100	9 / 10
2026-07-26	$12.58	$10,616,344,100	9 / 10
2026-07-27	$12.58	$10,612,594,100	9 / 10
2026-07-28	$12.58	$10,612,594,100	9 / 10
2026-07-29	$12.63	$10,683,771,660	9 / 10
2026-07-30	$12.63	$10,683,771,660	9 / 10
2026-07-31	$13.13	$10,692,820,858	7 / 8
2026-08-01	$13.13	$10,692,820,858	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$12.68	$10,683,771,660	9 / 10
2026-08-03	$13.13	$10,692,820,858	7 / 8
2026-08-04	$13.13	$10,692,820,858	7 / 8
2026-08-05	$13.13	$10,692,820,858	7 / 8
2026-08-06	$13.13	$10,692,820,858	7 / 8
2026-08-07	$13.13	$10,692,820,858	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$12.68	$10,683,771,660	9 / 10
2026-08-09	$12.68	$10,683,771,660	9 / 10
2026-08-10	$12.68	$10,683,771,660	9 / 10
2026-08-12	$12.68	$10,683,771,660	9 / 10
2026-08-13	$13.13	$10,692,820,858	7 / 8
2026-08-14	$13.13	$10,692,820,858	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$13.13	$10,692,820,858	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$13.13	$10,692,820,858	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$13.13	$10,692,820,858	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$13.13	$10,692,820,858	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$13.13	$10,692,820,858	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$13.39	$10,783,027,901	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$13.58	$10,833,890,412	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$13.58	$10,833,890,412	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$13.58	$10,833,890,412	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$13.58	$10,833,891,323	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$13.58	$10,833,891,323	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$13.58	$10,833,891,323	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$13.58	$10,833,891,323	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$13.58	$10,833,891,323	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$13.58	$10,833,891,323	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$13.58	$10,833,891,323	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$13.58	$10,833,891,323	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$13.61	$10,846,485,977	8 / 8
2026-09-24	$13.61	$10,846,485,977	8 / 8
2026-09-25	$13.61	$10,846,485,977	8 / 8
2026-09-26	$13.61	$10,846,485,977	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$13.61	$10,846,485,977	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$13.61	$10,846,485,977	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$13.61	$10,846,485,977	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$13.61	$10,846,485,977	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$13.61	$10,846,485,977	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$13.61	$10,846,485,977	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$13.61	$10,846,485,977	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$13.63	$10,854,859,120	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$13.63	$10,854,859,120	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$13.63	$10,860,253,024	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$13.75	$10,884,519,691	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$13.75	$10,884,519,691	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$13.75	$10,884,519,691	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$13.75	$10,884,519,691	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$13.75	$10,884,519,691	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$13.75	$10,884,519,691	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$13.88	$10,901,656,238	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$14.11	$10,932,528,010	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$14.11	$10,932,528,010	7 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	4	1
2026-06-01	8	2	2
2026-07-01	8	3	1
2026-08-01	7	3	1
2026-09-01	7	3	1
2026-10-01	7	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 5 · prior Aug 13

$292.00 → $289.00-1.0%

$0$160.60$321.20

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Sustain cash from operations near $329.3M per quarterCash from operations: $376M
Meet or exceed EPS guidance of $2.33 per share for 2026-Q2Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain operating income near or above $251.3M in 2026-Q1Published status: Under Pressure
Achieve revenue growth near 9% annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 21, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Packaging Corporation of America outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable compounder with a focus on maintaining earnings per share (EPS) guidance and operational improvements. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to key priorities.

What's priced into Packaging Corporation of America

The market appears to have a neutral valuation stance on PKG, with a slight premium compared to peers. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that investors may not be anticipating significant changes in performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, as management has shown a strong track record in delivering on EPS guidance. However, the integration of the Greif acquisition presents mixed results, which could impact operational performance in the near term.

What Packaging Corporation of America hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain EPS guidance and successfully integrate the Greif acquisition. Additionally, broader sector performance and inflation trends will be critical factors to monitor.