Reading CCK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 35% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from CCK and trends among sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $102.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $100 CCK trades at 13× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $157 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 36% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.21 → $2.16 (-2.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 11 cut, 13 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 71% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$110.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$230.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,047.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below this range would signal weaker performance amid rising costs and market headwinds.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted diluted earnings per share were below $2.10.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted diluted earnings per share were above $2.20.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CCK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 27, 2026 Crown Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing its earnings for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99 and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Report shall not be deemed to be "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, (the "Exchange Act") or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, an…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CCK Crown Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SW Smurfit Westrock | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | fair | elevated |
PKG Packaging Corporation of America | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | low |
IP International Paper | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | fair | elevated |
AMCR Amcor | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Ensure stability in operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Improve cash flow from operations through strategic financial management.
Why it matters: This facility is key for growth in a fast-growing market. Delays could hurt future earnings.
Confirms:There are updates on construction milestones for the new plant.
Disproves:Delays or setbacks in the construction timeline for the plant.
Why it matters: Keeping operating income steady is important. A drop could show cost issues.
Confirms:Operating income is steady or better than in Q1.
Disproves:Operating income is lower than the Q1 level of $365 million.
Why it matters: Growth would show recovery in the materials sector. This would help Crown's outlook.
Confirms:Materials sector revenue growth is positive after being close to -1 percent.
Disproves:Materials sector revenue growth is still negative.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 26, 2026, Crown Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing that Dr. John M. Rost, age 56, current President of the Company’s Asia Pacific Division, will be promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer - Asia Pacific and Transit Packaging, effective April 1, 2026. There are no arrangements or understandings between…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 17, 2026, Crown Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Restated Credit Agreement”), among CROWN Americas LLC (“Crown Americas”), a wholly-owned indirect subsidiary of the Company, as a U.S. Borrower, Signode Industrial Group US Inc., a wholly-owned indirect subsidiary of the Company, as a U.S. Borrower, Crown European Holdings S.A., a wholly-owned indirect subsidiary of the Company,…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 26, 2026, Crown Holdings, Inc. (the “ Company ”) announced that Michael P. Doss was elected to serve on the Board of Directors of the Company (the “ Board ”), effective on March 3, 2026. Mr. Doss has served as President, Chief Executive Officer and Director of Graphic Packaging Corporation, and as Director of Regal Rexnord Corporation.…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 4, 2026 Crown Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing its earnings for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99 and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Report shall not be deemed to be "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, (the "Exchange Act") or otherwise subject to the liability of that secti…