Reading SON? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SON free→Reading SON? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SON free→NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, though the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which may raise concerns. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. If SON cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $51.23. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $50 SON trades at 9× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $81 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $59–$69. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 30% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.52x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.57 → $1.49 (-5.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 9 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 55% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$108.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$220.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,925.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Updates may show progress in reaching cost savings and better profit margins.
Confirms:Management reports achieving at least $32 million in annual savings from the plan.
Disproves:Management reports setbacks or lower savings from the profit plan.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Stabilize revenue
Topping estimates supports revenue stabilization objective.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 5, 2026, Aditya Gandhi informed Sonoco Products Company (the “Company”) of his intention to resign from his position as Chief Accounting Officer, effective May 29, 2026. Mr. Gandhi’s decision to resign was not the result of any disagreement with the Company or its Board of Directors relating to the Company’s operations, policies or practices…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$59.00 – $69.00 (median $61.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-04-10
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SON Sonoco | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SW Smurfit Westrock | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | fair | elevated |
PKG Packaging Corporation of America | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | moderate |
IP International Paper | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AMCR Amcor | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Implement the Profitability Performance Plan to realize $150 million to $200 million in savings over the next three years.
Invest $20 million to add new nailed wood reel production capacity at the Hartselle, AL facility.
Open a new paper can production facility in Nong Yai, Thailand, to serve the growing stacked chip market in Asia.
Focus on stabilizing revenue to ensure consistent financial performance.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: Stabilizing revenue is a top priority for Sonoco. It shows the company is on track.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth turns positive year over year or stabilizes at 0%.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth declines year over year worse than -2%.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue for materials may show a recovery for Sonoco.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for over a year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: Better operating income is important for Sonoco's finances. It shows they manage costs well.
Confirms:Operating income goes up by more than 5% from Q1.
Disproves:Operating income goes down or stays the same from Q1.
Why it matters: A smooth CFO change is important for financial stability. It helps keep investor trust.
Confirms one read:New CFO provides guidance that is consistent with or better than prior expectations.
Confirms the other:New CFO issues lower guidance than previously expected.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, Sonoco Products Company (the "Company") issued a news release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended March 29, 2026. The Company also provided guidance for the full year 2026. A co py of that release is attached as an exhibit hereto.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On March 23, 2026, Sonoco Products Company (the “Company”) entered into a credit agreement with the lenders party thereto and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as Administrative Agent (the “Term Credit Agreement”). The Term Credit Agreement provides the Company with a delayed draw term loan facility in an aggregate principal amount of up to $300 million on an unsecured basis (the “Term Loan Facility”). The Term Loan Facility may be drawn, subje…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information in
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 19, 2026, the Company and Mr. Fuller agreed to amend the effective date of his retirement as the Company’s Chief Operating Officer to April 11, 2026.