Reading GPK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GPK free→Reading GPK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GPK free→NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 55% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from GPK and the performance of sector bellwethers like SW, PKG, and IP. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11 GPK trades at 9× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $25 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 55% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.29x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.18 → $0.14 (-24.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 8 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 10% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$163.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$405.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,122.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good cash flow management. It makes investors feel secure about returns.
Confirms:The dividend per share remains at $0.11 in the next quarter.
Disproves:The company cuts or suspends the dividend payment.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Securities lawsuits could impact investor confidence and stock performance.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Effective June 11, 2026, following the Annual Meeting of Stockholders, Mr. Philip R. Martens retired from his positions as a member and Chairman of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (the “Company”). Mr. Larry M. Venturelli, a member of the Board since 2016, was elected Chairman of the Board, effective upon Mr…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GPK Graphic Packaging | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
SW Smurfit Westrock | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | fair | elevated |
PKG Packaging Corporation of America | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | moderate |
IP International Paper | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AMCR Amcor | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Implement cost reduction and operational efficiency initiatives to optimize the operational footprint.
Maintain capital spending guidance of approximately $450 million for 2026.
Focus on expanding margins and accelerating free cash flow to strengthen the balance sheet.
Continue to prioritize capital allocation by issuing green bonds.
Continue to maintain regular dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: This report will show if the company can meet its cash flow and profit goals.
Confirms one read:Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 is above $300 million.
Confirms the other:Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 is below $300 million.
Why it matters: If it falls below this target, it shows problems in making cash and running well.
Confirms:Adjusted Cash Flow reported below $700 million for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Adjusted Cash Flow reported above $800 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in the materials sector may help Graphic Packaging do better.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth turns positive after being negative.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains negative.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows the company is keeping costs low.
Confirms:Company says it has reached or passed the $60 million cost cut goal.
Disproves:Company fails to report any progress on the $60 million cost reduction.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows financial health. It shows management wants to give value to shareholders.
Confirms:Look for news about continued or higher dividend payments.
Disproves:Look for news about dividend cuts or suspensions.
Why it matters: Finishing this will affect future production and money made.
Confirms:Company says the Waco project is now fully running.
Disproves:Delays in the project completion are reported.
Why it matters: Using green bonds can help with capital allocation. This can support future investments.
Confirms:Announcement of successful projects funded by green bonds.
Disproves:No updates or negative news on green bond projects.
Why it matters: Lowering inventory helps cash flow. It also makes the business run better.
Confirms:Company reports inventory dropped by at least $40 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Inventory levels remain flat or increase in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If operating income goes up, it shows better cost management. This is important for making money.
Confirms:Operating income in Q2 shows a significant increase from $19 million in Q1.
Disproves:Operating income in Q2 remains at or below $19 million.
Why it matters: The use of green bonds could enhance financial flexibility and support growth initiatives. This is new for the company.
Confirms:Graphic Packaging uses the $141.4 million from green bonds well in key projects.
Disproves:The company has trouble using the green bond money well or shows bad financial results.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Graphic Packaging can improve its operating income. This is key for future growth.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows operating income growth year over year.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows that operating income went down compared to last year.
Significant stock sell-off indicates market concerns about profitability.
Positive net income report supports growth and margin expansion.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On May 19, 2026, Graphic Packaging International, LLC (“Graphic Packaging”), the primary operating subsidiary of Graphic Packaging Holding Company, entered into a loan agreement with the Mission Economic Development Corporation (“MEDC”) for the proceeds of the MEDC’s offering of approximately $141.4 million aggregate principal amount of tax-exempt “green” bonds due 2064 with a ma…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On May 5, 2026, Graphic Packaging Holding Company issued a press release reporting its first quarter 2026 results. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. As provided in General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Effective March 8, 2026, the Board of Directors of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (the “Company”) appointed Mr. Jeffrey M. Stafeil to the Board of Directors. Mr. Stafeil will serve as one of the Class I Directors, whose terms expire in 2026. He has not yet been assigned to serve on any Committee of the Board. Mr. Stafeil is an independent directo…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 26, 2026, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (the “Company”), Graphic Packaging International Partners, LLC (“GPIP”), Graphic Packaging International, LLC, the primary operating subsidiary of the Company (“GPIL”), and certain subsidiaries of GPIL entered into Amendment No. 1 (the “Amendment”) to the Fifth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated June 3, 2024 (as amended by the Amendment, the “Credit Agreement”), by and among the Compa…