Graphic Packaging (GPK)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-10-29
$8.81+3.16%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put GPK beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Free cash flow between $700 million and $800 million in 2026: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 0% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 51% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskGPK’s low P/E and above-sector earnings yield support a value case, despite fragile cash backing. Revenue growth slowed from 2% to a 1% decline, although Q2 FY2026 earnings beat consensus. GPK trades at 8× P/E versus a 16.5× peer median. The price reflects less growth than our forecast. The reported-profit growth lacks strong cash backing, and the 2026 free-cash-flow comparison needs review. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 29%. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% above where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. GPK is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 12 analysts currently covering GPK (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 3 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for GPK in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPK Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put GPK next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Expand margins and accelerate free cash flow
Profit decline impacts margin expansion and cash flow objectives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $8.81
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $8.81.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Expand margins and accelerate free cash flow
Positive cash flow projection supports margin expansion and cash flow goals.
Advances: Maintain dividend payments
Dividend declaration supports capital allocation objective.
Advances: Expand margins and accelerate free cash flow
Entering recycled paperboard aligns with margin expansion goals.
New product aligns with growth and margin expansion objectives.
Advances: Expand margins and accelerate free cash flow
New product aligns with margin expansion and cash flow goals.
Negative Catalyst Watch indicates potential headwinds.
Leadership change may impact strategic direction and execution.