Reading AMCR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMCR free→
Amcor (AMCR)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$41.43+0.78%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 52% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This valuation suggests that AMCR trades below peer multiples, and the recent financials and earnings quality are not flashing deterioration. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Packaging & Containers
- Market cap
- $18.77B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2019-05-09
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $41.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$86.99consensus
Range $40.66 – $93.07
vs price: -52% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$179.95consensus
Range $63.76 – $203.24
vs price: -77% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $41 AMCR trades at 12× p/e, below its 25× p/e peer median. Our $87 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
12.0x
peer 25.3x · own history 3.0x
Premium
0.5x peer
4.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-53%
our forecast 46%
Our fair value
$87.03
range $40.00 – $94.92
WhyExtended vs its own historyPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 53% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 46%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
95th pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.46x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
78th pctl · Materials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
- the US dollar: This stock tends to fall when the dollar strengthens.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish10 analysts, 67% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.16 → $1.19 (+2.7% / 30d). 7 raised, 3 cut, 10 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.7% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$133.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$262.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,650.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q3 net sales growth to decline below 70%
Why it matters: Slower sales growth may show weaker demand and problems with integration.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q3 net sales growth reported below 70% year over year.
Disproves:Q3 net sales growth remains above 70% year over year.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1617h agoYahoo! Finance
Advances: Deliver $260 million synergy benefits
New leadership may enhance synergy realization.
Strongly reinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Materials sector revenue growth turning positive
- Watch for trends in unemployment claims impacting demand
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If AMCR reverses course and raises guidance next quarter (came in LOWERED as of 2026-05-06), that's a sharp positive shift. The Street usually rewards a 'crisis averted' bounce-back.
- If sector bellwethers like SW, PKG, and IP keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting AMCR and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SW, PKG, and IP start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping AMCR and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits AMCR and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If AMCR misses again next quarter like this past one (a solid miss of -10% on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-152d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 15, 2026, Amcor plc (the “ Company ”) announced that Fred Stephan , the Company’s Division President, Global Flexible Packaging Solutions, will retire from his officer role effective June 30, 2026. Mr. Stephan will remain employed as a special advisor to the Company until December 31, 2026 (the “ Retirement Date ”) to ensure a smooth transi…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.