Amcor (AMCR)

NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-10-15

$43.85+0.25%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Amcor’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.65 → 4.66 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve EPS growth of 12-17% for fiscal 2026	Amcor aims for 12-17% EPS growth in fiscal 2026 with guidance at $4.00 per share.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $3.98 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.83 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: EPS $4.00-$4.15. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 14, 20260.83 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Adjusted EPS grew from $3.56 in fiscal 2025 to $4.02 in fiscal 2026, a 13% increase, consistent with management's guidance of 12-17% growth. Quarterly adjusted EPS also showed steady growth, supporting the trajectory as delivering against the stated growth target. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Generate free cash flow of $1.8-$1.9 billion in fiscal 2026	It targets $1.8-$1.9 billion free cash flow, showing strong cash generation.	Broken	FCF falls below $1.5 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $1.423B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: FCF $1.8-$1.9 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 14, 20261,423,074,160 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Deliver $260 million synergy benefits from Berry acquisition in fiscal 2026	The company plans $260 million synergy benefits from the Berry acquisition.	Intact	Synergy benefits fall significantly short of $260 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Synergies from the Berry acquisition started at $38 million in 2025-Q3 and reached approximately $240 million by 2026-Q4, with management on track to deliver at least $260 million pre-tax synergy benefits in fiscal 2026 and targeting $650 million total synergies by fiscal 2028. The trajectory is delivering as planned with synergy realization ahead of initial expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$4.66

$4.62 → $4.66 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$24.30B

$24.03B → $24.30B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.62	$24,034,286,012	5 / 18
2026-07-25	$4.62	$24,034,286,012	5 / 18
2026-07-26	$4.62	$24,034,286,012	5 / 18
2026-07-27	$4.62	$24,034,286,012	5 / 18
2026-07-28	$4.62	$24,034,286,012	5 / 18
2026-07-29	$4.62	$24,034,286,012	5 / 18
2026-07-30	$4.47	$23,727,608,356	5 / 18
2026-07-31	$4.47	$23,727,608,356	5 / 18
2026-08-01	$4.47	$23,727,608,356	5 / 18
2026-08-02	$4.46	$23,596,086,685	5 / 18
2026-08-03	$4.46	$23,596,086,685	5 / 18
2026-08-04	$4.46	$23,596,086,685	5 / 18
2026-08-05	$4.46	$23,596,086,685	5 / 18
2026-08-06	$4.46	$23,596,086,685	5 / 18
2026-08-07	$4.46	$23,596,086,685	5 / 18
2026-08-08	$4.46	$23,596,086,685	5 / 18
2026-08-09	$4.46	$23,596,086,685	5 / 18
2026-08-10	$4.46	$23,596,086,685	5 / 18
2026-08-11	$4.46	$23,596,086,685	5 / 18
2026-08-12	$4.46	$23,596,086,685	5 / 18
2026-08-13	$4.61	$23,907,082,080	12 / 18
2026-08-14	$4.46	$23,596,086,685	5 / 18
2026-08-15	$4.46	$23,596,086,685	8 / 18
2026-08-16	$4.46	$23,596,086,685	7 / 16
2026-08-17	$4.46	$23,596,086,685	7 / 16
2026-08-18	$4.46	$23,596,086,685	7 / 16
2026-08-19	$4.46	$23,596,086,685	6 / 14
2026-08-20	$4.46	$23,596,086,685	6 / 14
2026-08-21	$4.64	$24,216,144,196	6 / 14
2026-08-22	$4.64	$24,216,144,196	6 / 14
2026-08-23	$4.64	$24,216,144,196	6 / 14
2026-08-24	$4.64	$24,216,144,196	6 / 14
2026-08-25	$4.64	$24,216,144,196	6 / 14
2026-08-26	$4.64	$24,216,144,196	6 / 14
2026-08-27	$4.64	$24,216,144,196	6 / 14
2026-08-28	$4.64	$24,216,144,196	6 / 14
2026-08-29	$4.64	$24,216,144,196	6 / 14
2026-08-30	$4.64	$24,216,144,196	6 / 14
2026-08-31	$4.64	$24,216,144,196	6 / 14
2026-09-01	$4.65	$24,242,506,714	6 / 14
2026-09-02	$4.65	$24,259,038,807	6 / 14
2026-09-03	$4.65	$24,241,506,714	6 / 14
2026-09-04	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-05	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-06	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-07	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-08	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-09	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-10	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-11	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-12	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-13	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-14	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-15	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-16	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-17	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-18	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-19	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-20	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-21	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-22	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-23	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-24	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-25	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-26	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-27	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-28	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-29	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-09-30	$4.65	$24,241,473,339	6 / 14
2026-10-01	$4.65	$24,232,767,792	6 / 14
2026-10-02	$4.65	$24,232,767,792	6 / 14
2026-10-03	$4.65	$24,232,767,792	6 / 14
2026-10-04	$4.65	$24,232,767,792	6 / 14
2026-10-05	$4.65	$24,232,767,792	6 / 14
2026-10-06	$4.65	$24,232,767,792	6 / 14
2026-10-07	$4.65	$24,232,767,792	6 / 14
2026-10-08	$4.65	$24,232,767,792	6 / 14
2026-10-09	$4.65	$24,232,767,792	6 / 14
2026-10-10	$4.65	$24,232,767,792	6 / 14
2026-10-11	$4.63	$24,232,801,309	6 / 14
2026-10-12	$4.63	$24,232,801,309	6 / 14
2026-10-13	$4.66	$24,279,900,895	6 / 14
2026-10-14	$4.66	$24,297,429,466	6 / 14
2026-10-15	$4.66	$24,297,429,466	6 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	4
2026-06-01	8	4
2026-07-01	9	6
2026-08-01	8	7
2026-09-01	7	7
2026-10-01	7	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve EPS growth of 12-17% for fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Generate free cash flow of $1.8-$1.9 billion in fiscal 2026Published status: Broken
Deliver $260 million synergy benefits from Berry acquisition in fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Amcor outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on synergy realization and earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial performance remains strong despite some volatility in management and sector challenges.

What's priced into Amcor

The market seems to have priced in some fragility due to weak execution quality, but the valuation remains expensive compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully reflect the potential for continued earnings growth and synergy benefits.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to deliver significant synergy benefits and has achieved steady adjusted EPS growth, although free cash flow generation is lagging behind targets. The near-term risk of missing earnings estimates is low, but the company has a history of misses that could impact investor sentiment.

What Amcor hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver on synergy targets. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and performance from sector peers will be crucial in shaping AMCR's trajectory.