Crown Holdings (CCK)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-09
$111.79-1.27%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Free cash flow at least $900M in FY26: FCF guidance $900M vs $900M target.
Crown Holdings grows revenue steadily, reaching $3.26B in Q1 2026. Profit per share is expected near $8.1 in 2026. The company generates strong free cash flow around $900M. Its valuation is cheap versus peers with a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.6.
Cash flow from operations fell sharply to negative $54M in Q1 2026. Operating income shows signs of pressure, declining from $374M to $365M. Revenue growth is slow and guidance is soft, risking margin and cash flow stability.
The market prices in about 4% revenue growth and values the stock slightly below our fair value near $116. Our view aligns with consensus on growth but sees risk in cash flow and margin pressures.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $7.7 in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $800M in FY26
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $350M quarterly
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on expanding capacity in the beverage can market. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong financial performance and management's commitment to growth.
The market appears to price CCK as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. There is a low level of fragility in its execution quality, indicating that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued strength, as management is on track with capacity expansion and has raised earnings guidance. However, there is a mixed outlook on free cash flow, which could impact future performance.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and capitalize on sector momentum. Key factors include inflation trends and performance from sector leaders that could influence CCK's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $12.7B in FY26
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Overall, CCK's strong recent performance and management priorities suggest a stable outlook for the next few years. Not investment advice.