Crown Holdings (CCK)

NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-10-23

$117.29-1.65%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Crown Holdings’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.03 → 9.09 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	3.38B
EPS	—	1.679
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	3.37B
EPS	—	1.883
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	14.01B
EPS	—	8.414
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	14.35B
EPS	—	9.091

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS near $8.1 in FY26	A primary condition in Crown Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >= $8.1 per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $7.7 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $2.23 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $8.1 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20262.23 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 77a3b28b-454f-411d-8d83-71f770c32b93. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow at least $900M in FY26	The company generates strong free cash flow around $900M.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $800M in FY26	Free cash flow: $597M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $900M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026597,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income near $365M quarterly	A supporting condition in Crown Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >= $365M per quarter.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls below $350M quarterly	Operating income: $464M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $365M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026464,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 77a3b28b-454f-411d-8d83-71f770c32b93. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth to at least $13.25B in FY26	A primary condition in Crown Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >= $13.25B.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $12.7B in FY26	Revenue: $3.668B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $13.25B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20263,668,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 77a3b28b-454f-411d-8d83-71f770c32b93. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.09

$9.01 → $9.09 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$14.35B

$13.94B → $14.35B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.01	$13,938,463,920	14 / 14
2026-07-25	$9.05	$13,971,571,410	14 / 14
2026-07-26	$9.05	$13,971,571,410	14 / 14
2026-07-27	$9.05	$13,971,571,410	14 / 14
2026-07-28	$9.05	$13,971,571,410	14 / 14
2026-07-29	$9.05	$13,971,571,410	14 / 14
2026-07-30	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-07-31	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-01	$9.05	$13,971,571,410	14 / 14
2026-08-02	$9.05	$13,971,571,410	14 / 14
2026-08-03	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-04	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-05	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-06	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-07	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-08	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-09	$9.05	$13,971,571,410	14 / 14
2026-08-10	$9.05	$13,971,571,410	14 / 14
2026-08-11	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-12	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-13	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-14	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-15	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-16	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-17	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-18	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-19	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-20	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-21	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-22	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-23	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-24	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-25	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-26	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-27	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-28	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-29	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-30	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-02	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-03	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-04	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-05	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-06	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-07	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-08	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-09	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-10	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-11	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-13	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-14	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-15	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$9.03	$13,929,761,616	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$9.03	$13,929,733,318	9 / 10
2026-09-21	$9.03	$13,971,571,412	9 / 10
2026-09-22	$9.03	$13,971,571,412	9 / 10
2026-09-23	$9.03	$13,971,571,412	9 / 10
2026-09-24	$9.03	$13,971,571,412	9 / 10
2026-09-25	$9.03	$13,971,571,412	9 / 10
2026-09-26	$9.03	$13,971,571,412	9 / 10
2026-09-27	$9.03	$13,971,571,412	9 / 10
2026-09-28	$9.03	$13,971,571,412	9 / 10
2026-09-29	$9.03	$13,971,571,412	9 / 10
2026-09-30	$9.03	$13,971,571,412	9 / 10
2026-10-01	$9.03	$13,971,571,412	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$9.03	$13,988,499,984	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$9.03	$13,988,499,984	9 / 10
2026-10-04	$9.03	$13,989,309,427	9 / 10
2026-10-05	$9.03	$13,989,309,427	9 / 10
2026-10-06	$9.03	$13,986,999,900	9 / 10
2026-10-07	$9.04	$13,987,469,900	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$9.04	$13,987,469,900	9 / 10
2026-10-09	$9.04	$13,987,469,900	9 / 10
2026-10-10	$9.04	$13,987,469,900	9 / 10
2026-10-11	$9.04	$13,987,469,900	9 / 10
2026-10-12	$9.04	$13,987,469,900	9 / 10
2026-10-13	$9.05	$13,994,021,342	9 / 10
2026-10-14	$9.06	$13,994,021,385	9 / 10
2026-10-15	$9.06	$13,994,021,385	9 / 10
2026-10-16	$9.06	$13,994,021,385	9 / 10
2026-10-17	$9.06	$13,994,021,385	9 / 10
2026-10-18	$9.06	$13,995,521,385	9 / 10
2026-10-19	$9.06	$13,998,524,285	9 / 10
2026-10-20	$9.06	$14,023,157,349	9 / 10
2026-10-21	$9.08	$14,284,835,835	9 / 10
2026-10-22	$9.09	$14,349,700,359	9 / 10
2026-10-23	$9.09	$14,349,697,328	9 / 10
2026-10-24	$9.09	$14,349,697,328	9 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	5
2026-06-01	10	5
2026-07-01	11	5
2026-08-01	11	5
2026-09-01	11	5
2026-10-01	11	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS near $8.1 in FY26Diluted EPS: $2.23 per share
Free cash flow at least $900M in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Operating income near $365M quarterlyPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth to at least $13.25B in FY26Revenue: $3.668B

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Crown Holdings outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CCK is a capacity-expansion and operating-improvement story, rather than a turnaround, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry. The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact, but earnings quality is fragile and management execution is rated neutral.

What's priced into Crown Holdings

The valuation evidence describes CCK as cheap versus peers, with a near-zero expectations gap, meaning market assumptions are close to the model’s expectations. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility; the evidence does not point to a strongly stretched expectations setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent earnings beats, rising momentum, and beverage-can volume growth support the operating picture. Management reports capacity projects on plan and forecasts at least $950 million in adjusted free cash flow for 2026, but that full-year cash figure remains a forecast and inflation is pressuring costs. The next guidance update and the sector’s headwind are key near-term risks.

What Crown Holdings hinges on

The multi-year view depends on continued beverage-can volume growth, delivery on expansion projects, and stronger operating performance translating into cash generation. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while results and guidance from sector bellwethers such as PKG, SW, and AMCR may indicate whether the Materials sector tailwind continues or fades.