Smurfit Westrock (SW)

NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-10-15

$41.16-0.19%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Smurfit Westrock’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.48 → 3.56 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Deliver adjusted EBITDA near $5.15 billion in fiscal 2026	Smurfit Westrock aims to deliver adjusted EBITDA near $5.15 billion in 2026.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $5.0 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain capital expenditures near $2.45 billion in 2026	Smurfit Westrock aims to deliver adjusted EBITDA near $5.15 billion in 2026.	Intact	Capex exceeds $2.6 billion or falls below $2.2 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $465M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.45 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026465,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stabilize or grow North American net sales above $4.4 billion per quarter	North American sales, its largest market, remain a key focus with $4.4 billion in Q1.	Improving	North American sales decline below $4.2 billion per quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.56

$3.37 → $3.56 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$34.40B

$33.62B → $34.40B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.37	$33,620,893,892	10 / 8
2026-07-25	$3.36	$33,624,070,690	13 / 12
2026-07-26	$3.36	$33,624,070,690	13 / 12
2026-07-27	$3.37	$33,620,893,892	10 / 8
2026-07-28	$3.40	$33,640,869,053	10 / 8
2026-07-29	$3.40	$33,640,869,053	10 / 8
2026-07-30	$3.39	$33,648,813,250	13 / 13
2026-07-31	$3.28	$33,804,799,870	13 / 12
2026-08-01	$3.37	$33,833,108,722	10 / 8
2026-08-02	$3.34	$33,899,172,050	14 / 13
2026-08-03	$3.40	$33,857,810,693	10 / 8
2026-08-04	$3.40	$33,857,810,693	10 / 8
2026-08-05	$3.40	$33,857,810,693	10 / 8
2026-08-06	$3.36	$33,911,451,020	14 / 13
2026-08-08	$3.41	$33,868,452,463	10 / 8
2026-08-09	$3.36	$33,959,010,010	14 / 13
2026-08-10	$3.41	$33,868,452,463	10 / 8
2026-08-12	$3.41	$33,868,452,463	10 / 8
2026-08-13	$3.41	$33,868,452,463	10 / 8
2026-08-14	$3.41	$33,868,452,463	10 / 8
2026-08-15	$3.41	$33,868,452,463	10 / 8
2026-08-16	$3.41	$33,868,452,463	10 / 8
2026-08-17	$3.41	$33,868,452,463	10 / 8
2026-08-18	$3.41	$33,868,452,463	10 / 8
2026-08-19	$3.41	$33,868,452,463	10 / 8
2026-08-20	$3.43	$34,006,960,919	10 / 8
2026-08-21	$3.43	$34,006,960,919	10 / 8
2026-08-22	$3.43	$34,006,960,919	10 / 8
2026-08-23	$3.43	$34,006,960,919	10 / 8
2026-08-24	$3.43	$34,006,960,919	10 / 8
2026-08-25	$3.43	$34,006,960,919	10 / 8
2026-08-26	$3.45	$34,053,047,586	10 / 8
2026-08-27	$3.45	$34,053,047,586	10 / 8
2026-08-28	$3.45	$34,053,047,586	10 / 8
2026-08-29	$3.45	$34,046,030,274	10 / 8
2026-08-30	$3.45	$34,046,030,274	10 / 8
2026-08-31	$3.45	$34,046,030,274	10 / 10
2026-09-01	$3.45	$34,046,030,274	10 / 10
2026-09-02	$3.45	$34,046,030,274	10 / 10
2026-09-03	$3.45	$34,046,030,274	10 / 10
2026-09-04	$3.45	$34,046,030,274	10 / 10
2026-09-05	$3.45	$34,046,030,274	10 / 10
2026-09-06	$3.45	$34,046,030,274	10 / 10
2026-09-07	$3.45	$34,046,030,274	10 / 10
2026-09-08	$3.45	$34,046,030,274	10 / 10
2026-09-09	$3.46	$34,066,062,741	10 / 10
2026-09-10	$3.46	$34,066,062,741	10 / 10
2026-09-11	$3.46	$34,066,062,741	10 / 10
2026-09-12	$3.46	$34,066,062,740	10 / 10
2026-09-13	$3.46	$33,996,163,329	10 / 10
2026-09-14	$3.46	$33,996,163,329	10 / 10
2026-09-15	$3.48	$34,025,871,753	10 / 10
2026-09-16	$3.48	$34,025,871,753	10 / 10
2026-09-17	$3.48	$34,025,871,753	10 / 10
2026-09-18	$3.48	$34,025,871,753	10 / 10
2026-09-19	$3.48	$34,025,871,753	10 / 10
2026-09-20	$3.48	$34,025,871,753	10 / 10
2026-09-21	$3.48	$34,025,871,753	10 / 10
2026-09-22	$3.48	$34,025,871,753	10 / 10
2026-09-23	$3.48	$34,025,871,753	10 / 10
2026-09-24	$3.48	$34,025,871,753	10 / 10
2026-09-25	$3.50	$34,071,665,594	10 / 10
2026-09-26	$3.50	$34,071,665,594	10 / 10
2026-09-27	$3.50	$34,071,665,594	10 / 10
2026-09-28	$3.50	$34,071,665,594	10 / 10
2026-09-29	$3.50	$34,071,665,594	10 / 10
2026-09-30	$3.50	$34,071,665,594	10 / 10
2026-10-01	$3.50	$34,071,665,594	10 / 10
2026-10-02	$3.50	$34,071,665,594	10 / 10
2026-10-03	$3.50	$34,071,665,594	10 / 10
2026-10-04	$3.49	$34,087,975,974	10 / 10
2026-10-05	$3.50	$34,126,974,258	10 / 10
2026-10-06	$3.48	$34,144,647,124	10 / 10
2026-10-07	$3.49	$34,184,075,695	10 / 10
2026-10-08	$3.49	$34,184,075,695	10 / 10
2026-10-09	$3.49	$34,184,075,695	10 / 10
2026-10-10	$3.49	$34,184,075,695	10 / 10
2026-10-11	$3.49	$34,184,075,695	10 / 10
2026-10-12	$3.49	$34,184,075,695	10 / 10
2026-10-13	$3.52	$34,252,887,152	10 / 10
2026-10-14	$3.56	$34,396,457,158	10 / 10
2026-10-15	$3.56	$34,396,457,158	10 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	15	0	0
2026-06-01	16	0	0
2026-07-01	17	0	0
2026-08-01	17	0	0
2026-09-01	17	0	0
2026-10-01	17	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Deliver adjusted EBITDA near $5.15 billion in fiscal 2026Published status: Broken
Maintain capital expenditures near $2.45 billion in 2026Capital expenditures: $465M
Stabilize or grow North American net sales above $4.4 billion per quarterDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Smurfit Westrock outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a durable compounder with a focus on operational improvements and cost reductions. The current thesis state is intact, but recent earnings misses have raised concerns about near-term performance.

What's priced into Smurfit Westrock

The market seems to have priced in a justified valuation, reflecting a premium compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may be cautious about future earnings performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on delivering Adjusted EBITDA guidance and optimizing operations, which could stabilize performance over the multi-year horizon. However, recent earnings misses suggest a risk of continued volatility in results.

What Smurfit Westrock hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet guidance and improve operational efficiency. Additionally, external factors like inflation and sector performance will play a critical role in shaping future outcomes.