Reading SUPN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SUPN free→Reading SUPN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SUPN free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with the company priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $43.58. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $44 the market pays 17× p/e — above the 13× p/e peer median but in line with its own 21× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $35 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 25% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.86x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.55 → $0.46 (-16.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$141.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$287.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,354.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Reaffirming revenue guidance shows confidence in growth and execution. It can boost investor trust.
Confirms:Management confirms full year 2026 revenue guidance of $840 million to $870 million.
Disproves:Management cuts the revenue guidance to below $840 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SUPN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (“Supernus” or the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference. As previously announced, Supernus is hosting a conference call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, May 5, 2026, to present the business and financial results. A live…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SUPN Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | full | moderate |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company continues to emphasize its revenue guidance for the full year 2026.
The company is focused on maintaining its adjusted operating earnings guidance for 2026.
The company has created a direct financial obligation under a CVR Agreement.
Why it matters: Reiterating guidance shows confidence in revenue growth. This can help keep investors calm.
Confirms:Management confirms full year 2026 revenue guidance during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers or withdraws the full year 2026 revenue guidance.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Supernus is performing. This affects investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) is over $0.10. This shows better performance.
Confirms the other:EPS falls below $0.00, showing continued losses.
Why it matters: Good results could show SPN-817's potential and increase Supernus's pipeline value.
Confirms one read:Phase 2b trial shows strong results in reducing focal seizures.
Confirms the other:Phase 2b trial fails to meet primary endpoint.
Why it matters: News about milestones can change how much money Supernus needs. It can also affect future cash flow.
Confirms:They announced a milestone that helps cash flow.
Disproves:They announced a missed milestone. This increases financial strain.
Why it matters: Approval would secure supply and support ONAPGO sales growth. This is key for revenue stability.
Confirms:FDA approves the second supplier for ONAPGO before mid-2027.
Disproves:FDA delays or denies approval for the second supplier.
Why it matters: Updates on earnings guidance show how well the company controls costs and revenue.
Confirms one read:Management raises earnings guidance in the next earnings call.
Confirms the other:Management lowers earnings guidance in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Growth in ZURZUVAE revenue shows strong market demand and success in partnerships.
Confirms:ZURZUVAE made over $30 million from collaboration in Q2 2026.
Disproves:ZURZUVAE made less than $25 million from collaboration in Q2 2026.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On May 17, 2026 (the “Notice Date”), pursuant to the Contingent Value Right Agreement (the “CVR Agreement”) entered into as of July 30, 2025, by and between Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”) and Equiniti Trust Company, LLC, a New York limited liability trust company, as Rights Agent, the Company notified the Rights Agent that Milestone 1, as d…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. issued a press release announcing that it will report its business results for the first quarter of 2026 after the market closes on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The Company will host a conference call and webcast on Tuesday, May 5, 2026 at 4:30 p.m. E.T. to discuss its first quarter 2026 financial and business results. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated h…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Asset. The information set forth in
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. Entry into Asset Purchase Agreement On April 1, 2026, Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Asset Purchase Agreement (the “Agreement”), together with related ancillary transaction documents, with Navitor Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Navitor”), Navitor Pharmaceuticals, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Navitor Parent,” and, together with Navitor, the “Sellers”). The Agreement is entered into as co…