Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN)

NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-10-23

$40.70-3.26%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	229.65M
EPS	—	1.02
FY 2026 · Annual
ONAPGO revenue	$45M–$70M	—
Revenue	—	873.98M
EPS	—	2.385
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.47B
EPS	—	4.28

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage risks from CVR financial obligation	A supporting condition in Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No material negative impact on cash flow or credit rating.	Intact	Material cash flow strain or credit downgrade due to CVR obligation	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin improves to ~15% in 2026	A primary condition in Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 15%.	Broken	Operating margin remains negative below 0% in FY26	Operating margin: -26.46% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 15%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 2026-26.460116 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bc2a8af5-91cd-4422-bb0e-ce17e1236cd8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full year 2026 revenue near $855 million	The company reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance near $855 million.	Improving	Annual revenue falls below $695 million in FY26	Revenue: $219.058M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$855 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 2026219,058,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bc2a8af5-91cd-4422-bb0e-ce17e1236cd8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$1.02B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,022,888,600	3 / 6
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,022,888,600	3 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,022,888,600	3 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,022,888,600	3 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,022,888,600	3 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,022,888,600	3 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,022,888,600	3 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,022,888,600	3 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,018,277,320	2 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,018,277,320	2 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	1
2026-06-01	5	1
2026-07-01	5	1
2026-08-01	5	1
2026-09-01	5	1
2026-10-01	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage risks from CVR financial obligationQualitative condition
Operating margin improves to ~15% in 2026Published status: Broken
Full year 2026 revenue near $855 millionRevenue: $219.058M

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented pharmaceutical business with a merger-related cost-savings opportunity, but it is not yet a proven earnings compounder in the supplied results. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: product growth is visible, while merger delivery and profitability remain unproven.

What's priced into Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

SUPN trades at a 27% premium to peers, attributed to durable business strengths, and the pricing tag says expectations are justified. The expectations gap is negative, which points to expectations above the model’s view; confidence in that estimate is medium. The evidence does not specify which particular growth or merger outcomes the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth in key products supports the business, but the latest supplied quarter also showed an operating loss, and the risk label recently rose from moderate to elevated. Management has reported a 56% year-over-year increase in combined growth-product revenue, while the announced merger and expected cost synergies are still pending and not yet reflected as delivered results. Recent earnings and FDA events are positive, but the supplied evidence gives limited detail on their financial impact.

What Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on sustaining growth in commercial products and completing the Indivior merger, then delivering the announced cost synergies. A guidance reversal after a recent increase would weigh on management credibility, while weaker employment data could add pressure; continued strength from healthcare peers would support the sector backdrop. Clinical progress matters too, though the supplied evidence shows ongoing study work rather than a major milestone.