Reading SMP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMP free→Reading SMP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMP free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that reported profits are not strongly backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $39.28. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $39 SMP trades at 10× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $50 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 22% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.62x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.45 → $1.39 (-3.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$116.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$255.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,256.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
As of June 16, 2026, the valuation changed from inexpensive to fair. This indicates a shift in how the stock is valued relative to its peers. The risk dimension remained moderate, while the sector backdrop is noted as a headwind. The overall context is provisional, suggesting that further developments may influence these dimensions.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin range shows good cost management. It helps with making money.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin was between 11% and 12% for Q2.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin was below 11% for Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SMP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026 , Standard Motor Products, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. Such press release shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incor…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SMP Standard Motor Products, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | full | moderate |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving low to mid-single digit sales growth for 2026.
Aim to sustain adjusted EBITDA margin within the 11%-12% range for 2026.
Target reducing net debt levels to 2.0x adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2026.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on improving gross profit margins through strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Lowering net debt leverage shows good financial health. It helps long-term stability.
Confirms:Net debt leverage was at or below 2.5x adjusted EBITDA.
Disproves:Net debt leverage was above 2.5x adjusted EBITDA.
Why it matters: Gross profit growth reflects product mix and pricing. A slowdown below 10% signals potential issues.
Confirms:Gross profit growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Gross profit growth reported at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Sales growth over 5% shows strong demand. This helps management reach revenue goals.
Confirms:Q2 net sales growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 net sales growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Operating income growth shows if cost management is working. A drop below 50% growth raises concerns.
Confirms:Operating income growth was below 50% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income growth reported at or above 50% year over year.
Why it matters: A big rise in inventory may mean overproduction or low demand.
Confirms:Inventory levels rise by more than 10% from last quarter.
Disproves:Inventory levels go down or stay the same from last quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026 , Standard Motor Products, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. Such press release shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, n…
Other Events. On February 2, 2026, Standard Motor Products, Inc. issued a press release announcing an increase in its quarterly common stock dividend from thirty-one cents ($0.31) per share to thirty-three cents ($0.33) per share, payable on March 2, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 16, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is hereby incorporated by reference.